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joker seeker
Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 7953 | TRs | Pics Location: state of confusion |
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joker
seeker
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Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:23 am
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Reports from friends who have been up ski touring is that stuff is melting out quite quickly.
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CC cascade curmudgeon
Joined: 13 Sep 2006 Posts: 647 | TRs | Pics
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CC
cascade curmudgeon
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Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:23 am
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Bedivere wrote: | I'll bet the May 1 snowpack is significantly below the 100% mark...
This has been an incredibly warm April. |
Yes, we are now at 65% at Stevens.
I had thought maybe albright had finally gone away -- I think Cliff has a new data lackey -- but he's like a zombie, you can't get rid of him.
First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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Bedivere Why Do Witches Burn?
Joined: 25 Jul 2008 Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics Location: The Hermitage |
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
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Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:01 am
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I thought you got rid of zombies by shooting them in the head?
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albrightmd Member
Joined: 25 Jun 2012 Posts: 112 | TRs | Pics
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I will post snotel snow water results for May 1 in about a week.
April 2016 was the warmest April in western Washington since at least 1926 or 1934, both those years were comparable to April 2016. In fact, the increase over the past 5 years is quite remarkable. At Olympia WA we have gone from a monthly mean temperature of 43.7 F in April 2011 up to 53.2 F in April 2016. April 2008 was also very cold with 44.1 F at Olympia WA.
Mark Albright
Research Climatologist
Washington State Climatologist (1987-2003)
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
Mark Albright
Research Climatologist
Washington State Climatologist (1987-2003)
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6310 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Mon May 02, 2016 7:21 am
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The North Cascades highway shows an incredibly high snow line on south slopes for this time of year. Very high winter snow levels, a record warm month of April, and way more sunshine than normal for the month being the contributors. It looks like mid-late May to early June on most south slopes. Maybe next winter if La Nina develops strongly we will have a one year break anomaly to the increasingly strong warming trend the past several decades. Earlier springs, warmer, drier summers (especially the first half) have been increasingly the norm since the mid-80's.
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albrightmd Member
Joined: 25 Jun 2012 Posts: 112 | TRs | Pics
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gb wrote: | Earlier springs, warmer, drier summers (especially the first half) have been increasingly the norm since the mid-80's. |
At least through 2008 there was no appreciable trend in warm season temperature in western Washington over the previous 33 years:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/t.sea_olm.Apr-Sep.1976-2008.gif
Mark Albright
Research Climatologist
Washington State Climatologist (1987-2003)
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
Mark Albright
Research Climatologist
Washington State Climatologist (1987-2003)
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6310 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Mon May 02, 2016 11:59 am
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Why did you stop the data at 2008? It would be more interesting to include 2014 and 15.
Also the data I would most like to see would be average Quillayute annual freezing levels or average 500 mb heights.
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Alpine Pedestrian Member
Joined: 24 May 2007 Posts: 188 | TRs | Pics Location: Stevens Pass |
gb wrote: | Why did you stop the data at 2008? It would be more interesting to include 2014 and 15. |
Can you say the words cherry pick? agenda? troll?
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Slugman It’s a Slugfest!
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 Posts: 16874 | TRs | Pics
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Slugman
It’s a Slugfest!
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Tue May 03, 2016 9:44 am
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Maybe the data he had at hand ran through 2008? If you have more recent data, then show it.
Oh, and everyone has an agenda, the whole concept of attacking someone over that is one of the least intelligent attacks a person can make. Perhaps you meant a hidden agenda? If so, your comment was even worse, as he is hiding nothing about his opinions.
And a "troll"? Maybe his info is what you agree with, maybe it's true, maybe it isn't, but a troll? Ludicrous insult based on nothing.
And worst of all, you don't even know what "cherry pick" means! Unbelievable. He posted data for 32 consecutive years, anyone who calls that cherry picking has issues with the English language and the metaphors used therein.
Maybe you could have used one minute of your precious time to read his post just before the last one? Where he wrote this? " In fact, the increase over the past 5 years is quite remarkable." So, where is the agenda, where is the cherry picking? In your fevered imagination, and nowhere else. Another candidate for the ignore list.
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Tom Admin
Joined: 15 Dec 2001 Posts: 17853 | TRs | Pics
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Tom
Admin
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Tue May 03, 2016 11:56 am
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Sluggy, April fools was last month. Weatherman has been trolling here going on 9 consecutive years. The usernames change but the cherry picking, trolling and agenda remains the same.
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tmatlack Member
Joined: 21 Aug 2007 Posts: 2854 | TRs | Pics
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tmatlack
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Wed May 04, 2016 3:51 am
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Early melt out good for hiking; not so good for us whitewater enthusiasts. Example: two weeks ago after hot spell Wenatchee went to 14,000 cfs. That might have been the spring snowmelt climax. Way way too early. Many rafting companies (Orion) had not even started their weekend trips or finished their guide trainings.
Tom
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Pyrites Member
Joined: 16 Sep 2014 Posts: 1884 | TRs | Pics Location: South Sound |
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Pyrites
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Fri May 06, 2016 9:27 am
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My memory says that for decades that snow pack on April 1 of the year was the metric looked at. This seemed reasonable as the maximum water equivalent (a better metric than snow depth) consistently occurred shortly before or after that date.
Has anyone instead looked at date snow pack is gone, or nearly so (40cm?) at the SNOTEL sites over the years.
If there is about the same amount of water on 4/1, but it is gone by 6/1 instead of 7/5, isn't that a real change as well?
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
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Fri May 06, 2016 10:59 am
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tmatlack wrote: | Early melt out good for hiking |
Early melt out is good for EARLY hiking. Come back in August when everybody will be asking where they can go hiking and it not be smoky (or actually burning). A wet winter followed by a hot and dry spring is worse for fires than last year's snow drought because we will have more spring growth to burn when it dries out.
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albrightmd Member
Joined: 25 Jun 2012 Posts: 112 | TRs | Pics
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Pyrites wrote: | Has anyone instead looked at date snow pack is gone, or nearly so (40cm?) at the SNOTEL sites over the years.
If there is about the same amount of water on 4/1, but it is gone by 6/1 instead of 7/5, isn't that a real change as well? |
Two years ago I plotted the snowmelt between April 1 and June 1 for 52 high elevation SNOTEL sites from 1984 - 2014. The trend was actually towards less melt in recent years, see red trend line in plot below. In fact, the net melt was negative in 2011 which means spring snowfall exceeded snowmelt during the unusually cold spring of 2011.
Mark Albright
Research Climatologist
Washington State Climatologist (1987-2003)
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
Mark Albright
Research Climatologist
Washington State Climatologist (1987-2003)
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
Member
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Mon May 09, 2016 12:32 pm
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From Scientific American:
Catastrophic Canadian Wildfire Is a Sign of Destruction to Come
Quote: | Scientists say big fires will ignite sooner and sooner in the year in the western U.S. and Canada as the snow pack continues to dwindle during warmer winters or dries out sooner during warmer springs, leaving terrain parched for more weeks of the year. |
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