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Sculpin
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Sculpin
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PostWed Mar 29, 2017 8:56 am 
Ockham's Razor and Murphy's Law both have a life of their own in modern culture, but they are actually logic tools. They are important tools in the backcountry. The term "Ockham's (or Occam's) Razor" refers to a statement made by William of Ockham, but the concept can be traced back as far as Aristotle. Beyond that, I will not repeat what can be read at Wikipedia. The concept is that when we are weighing different plausible explanations for a phenomenon, we should begin our investigation by assuming that the explanation that requires the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct until it is refuted by evidence. Written this way, I think most folks will recognize that the concept is self-evident. Ockham's Razor came up in a discussion of Search and Rescue (SAR). I have never participated in a rescue myself, but I can surmise a few things. If you are making decisions at a trailhead about where to look for a lost person, I think you will employ Ockham's Razor. For example, it is likely that the person made a wrong turn onto visible tread and they eventually realized it, and so ended up near that tread or tried to get back to where they were supposed to be. If you start stacking on further assumptions about what they might have done, your odds of finding them are likely to go down, not up. Look near the trail first, rather than over in the next valley. Murphy's Law is mostly invoked as a joke. And for the record, I find the joke pretty funny myself: anything that can go wrong, will go wrong, and at the worst possible time. But if it is stated properly, it is anything but a joke: when assessing hazards, always consider the ramifications of the worst plausible occurrence happening at the worst possible time. This is actually the premise behind MIL-STD-882, the official US government approach to hazard analysis. I see folks invoking Murphy's Law here at NWHikers. It happens every time someone turns around from a high risk situation because they are hiking solo and off trail. The logic is that a plausible occurrence - I break a leg and cannot walk - would occur at the worst possible time, when there is no one to go for help, no cell phone coverage, and not even anyone to hear my shouts. So you no doubt regularly use both Ockham's Razor and Murphy's Law, even if you didn't realize it.

Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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