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MyFootHurts Huge Member
Joined: 22 Nov 2011 Posts: 912 | TRs | Pics Location: Kekistan |
If you know anyone down the beach, let them know
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=tsunami%20watch
...A TSUNAMI WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM THE
CAL./MEXICO BORDER TO THE WASH./BC BORDER ...
If you are located in this coastal area, stay alert
for further updates.
Tsunami watches are an advance notice to areas that could be
impacted by a tsunami at a later time. Watch areas may be
upgraded to a warning or advisory status, or canceled,
based on new information.
At 1232 AM Alaska Standard Time on January 23 an earthquake with
preliminary magnitude 8.0 occurred 175 miles southeast of
Kodiak City Alaska.
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wildernessed viewbagger
Joined: 31 Oct 2004 Posts: 9275 | TRs | Pics Location: Wenatchee |
I woke up to that on my news feed this morning. I saw where one area noticed water receding along the shoeline and became alarmed at the possible implications.
Living in the Anthropocene
Living in the Anthropocene
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Brockton Member
Joined: 02 Aug 2012 Posts: 266 | TRs | Pics Location: West Seattle |
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Brockton
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:08 am
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All tsunami alerts have been cancelled now.
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1519 | TRs | Pics
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An ~8 just does not have the strength required to create a sizeable wave this far away. Especially a strike slip that puts much of its energy into non-tsunamigenic side to side motion. The great 9+ waves of Japan and Indonesia had some 50-100 times more vertical displacement by comparison. The tsunami warning center really needs to stop crying wolf for these relatively little 8.0s that occur in the deep ocean if they want people to take them seriously when it really matters.
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Pyrites Member
Joined: 16 Sep 2014 Posts: 1884 | TRs | Pics Location: South Sound |
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Pyrites
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:58 am
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Last night they were saying the closest buoy experienced considerable vertical displacement. After a time wave at the next closest buoy only moved several centimeters.
I’m sure they need to balance need for speed with accuracy.
Do you promptly alert eight of ten tsunamis or do you promptly alert twelve out of ten tsunamis?
Best.
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1519 | TRs | Pics
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The problem is right now they are alerting on like 12 out of 1 tsunamis. Thats not a ratio that lends towards future believe-ability. We shouldn't expect alerts to be perfect but what he have right now is way out of hand.
As for the buoy heights, they looked pretty small to me. Most had open ocean displacement of a few centimeters... with a typical coast runup of 10-20x... not a threat. One went crazy with obviously impossible(short of a major impact) bad data. Also you can afford to wait a little while for distant shores. If the wave takes 3 hours to reach the warning area... and it already looks small... you have plenty of time to wait and verify what is going on before scaring people. The south coast of Kodiak island and a few nearby smaller islands deserved an instant warning(perhaps not a very dire one) for this, since it was close to the rupture. Everywhere else should have been left alone.
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wanderwild Member
Joined: 21 Jun 2004 Posts: 333 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle, WA |
I agree with Thunderhead. Or maybe "warning" is the incorrect terminology.
After many of these in my lifetime here in the PNW, I do not interpret the warning as "a tsunami is coming." My interpretation is "there was a quake somewhere in the Pacific and you should Google it to make your own assessment." Helpful, but definitely not heeded as a "warning."
But alas, if I lived in tidal Grays County I might react differently.
"Whatever your mountain, climb on."
"Whatever your mountain, climb on."
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MyFootHurts Huge Member
Joined: 22 Nov 2011 Posts: 912 | TRs | Pics Location: Kekistan |
wanderwild wrote: | I agree with Thunderhead. Or maybe "warning" is the incorrect terminology.
After many of these in my lifetime here in the PNW, I do not interpret the warning as "a tsunami is coming." My interpretation is "there was a quake somewhere in the Pacific and you should Google it to make your own assessment." Helpful, but definitely not heeded as a "warning."
But alas, if I lived in tidal Grays County I might react differently. |
They issue 3 types of tsunami alerts:
Tsunami advisory
Tsunami watch
Tsunami warning
Last night WA got a tsunami watch. That does not mean run for the hills.
AK did get a tsunami warning. That does mean run for the hills.
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Pyrites Member
Joined: 16 Sep 2014 Posts: 1884 | TRs | Pics Location: South Sound |
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Pyrites
Member
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:50 pm
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A bunch of hikers, who can start
their own car, and be a hundred miles away in a couple hours might be one market for the information.
But another customer of the alert or watch might be an assisted living facility manager. And presumably everywhere calls in all off-duty police & fire. Their responsibility is both their families’ and community’s safety, and then bugging out. Moving just one not self mobile or frail person is a labor intensive function. In numbers? A couple hours would go pretty fast.
Best.
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1519 | TRs | Pics
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Quote: | In numbers? A couple hours would go pretty fast. |
True. But you have to balance that against the massive improbability of an ~8.0 creating a big wave 1000 miles away, and the minor amount of coast within striking height of sea level even if it did. Now if that was a 9.0, by all means sound the alarm, and then figure out what the moment tensor and buoys are saying. When the big megathrusts hit, run first and then ask questions. But for a very low end tsnunamigenic quake like this... these warnings and alerts just teach people to ignore them. The watch for the US west coast and the warning for the Vancouver Island/Sitka area were absolutely unnecessary.
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Adohrn Member
Joined: 09 Mar 2012 Posts: 308 | TRs | Pics
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Adohrn
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:45 pm
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Advisory, watch and warning talk about confusing and vague terms. No wonder the general public tends to overreact. Now if they named them don’t panic, calmly move away from ocean, your gona die, there would be a lot less anxiety and confusion. Except for the people who are gona die, and they won’t be able to vote anymore so who cares about them.😏
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AlpineRose Member
Joined: 08 May 2012 Posts: 1953 | TRs | Pics
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Tsunami Watches, Advisories and Warnings are analogous for tsunami probability as Wind Watches, Advisories and Warnings are for high wind probability.
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MyFootHurts Huge Member
Joined: 22 Nov 2011 Posts: 912 | TRs | Pics Location: Kekistan |
The terms are very specific and defined.
The messages even explain them:
Tsunami watches are an advance notice to areas that could be
impacted by a tsunami at a later time. Watch areas may be
upgraded to a warning or advisory status, or canceled,
based on new information.
If people who live in tsunami zones can't be bothered to learn the terms and make a plan for each one, their impending doom is a personal problem.
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1519 | TRs | Pics
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Even if the media and the people knew the definitions(which I agree is their problem), the tsunami warning center still massively overwarned this latest quake, continuing a trend of massively overwarning ~8.0 level quakes that goes back many years. They evacced half of hawaii's coast a few years ago for like an 8 inch wave.
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