[zephyr]

Thanks for posting that link to Avalanche Canada's website gb. There's lots of information there including a series of videos they call Avy Snacks. Here's one that covers avalanche terrain. It's oriented more for snowmobile riders but the examples are universal. So pardon the aggro music and some of the visuals. Lots of discussion about slope angle, wind load, aspect and terrain. Note around minute 05:20 as they talk about terrain traps the scenario reminded me of the folks at Mirror Lake. ~z .

[DadFly]

@Randyhiker "I don't think that is really a concern, at least not to any competent manager. " I was paraphrasing what I have been told by the Forrest Service over the years and when I worked for the Forrest Service. The "competent manager" part seems to be an issue way up the chain by your assessment.

[gb]

The east side snowpack in the Teanaway has resulted in an avalanche that killed two people Saturday. Basically, these are the same weak layers of the previous weekend. They remain more active on the east side because they are buried less deeply. In addition the east side has been colder than the west making the weak layers weaker. NWAC discussion: https://www.nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/current/cascade-east-central/#discussion

[rubywrangler]

SMR shared this video of yesterday's avalanche @ mcclellan butte: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bf4PY5RhxVI/?taken-by=workoutholic2000

[gb]

With still a good deal of evidence of persistent slabs east of the crest the possibility of triggering a significant slab still exists. Warmer temperatures on Wednesday will make it easier to trigger the persistent slab on that day. Make sure to pay attention to the details in the discussion at www.nwac.us

[gb]

Again, another weekend to be careful in routes chosen. Initially, it is much like normal around here with substantial new snow and windslabs. But it warms up rapidly later Saturday and gets very warm aloft Sunday through Tuesday. On the east side where the weak layers are presumably more reactive this will be the first time it has gotten this warm. There should be slabs down to the weak layer especially with the warming. Follow the forecasts www.nwac.us

[gb]

Quite frankly, the reports of observations on the NWAC site from Saturday evening combined with the warming make it look quite treacherous.

[christensent]

It's tough right now, it's not super common to have such a deep persistent weak layer in Washington that's been around so long and is so hard to predict. I was up at Rainier today and wanted to ski Nisqually Chute so bad because conditions were amazing, and everything looks so safe. Not an avalanche to be seen on the mountain in the recent snowpack, zero reactivity in the upper snow pack. But there's that lurking danger as much as 5-10 feet deep that's infeasible to even really test for. I feel like people around here just aren't adapted to that way of thinking like people are in regions of the world where this is the common hazard. It's easy to get carried away in these conditions, myself included sometimes! The only truly safe way to play is to not be on slopes that could slide right now.

[Token Civilian]

Final report on the Snow Lake is posted. As is the one from Cottonwood Lake. Both are worth reading, in a sobering way. If you have family who venture into the back country in winter, be it on snowshoe, ski or machine, make them read these as well. Link to reports page. https://www.nwac.us/accidents/accident-reports/ Quote from Snow Lake Report

[FUN CH]

Quote"Why do recreationists of all ages, walks of life, experiences, and modes of travel continue to follow the same route, through the same terrain, during periods of elevated avalanche danger?” I'm not sure that sentence belongs in a report such as this. I believe it's disrespectful to those who perished. They are not here to speak for themselves. I particularly don't like the way the commercial investigator singles out recreational skiers considering that there are countless commercial guide near-miss accidents that the public has no knowledge of or the lessons learned from those near misses. Also those commercial guided trip near Miss incidents do not not get accurately reported by nwac or included in the nwac annual Avalanche summary. What he describes is not limited to recreational Skiers, and applies to commercially guided trips as well. Maybe when nwac decides to accurately investigate and report near-miss Avalanche incidents that involve their industry partners, these types of incidents will go down. I'd be happy to post the facts to back up what I'm saying. Just ask.

[jared_j]

[hbb]

[gb]

By the way this week and beyond avalanche conditions are once again a concern but for a different and more familiar reason. There will be a fair amount of new snow through the weekend with generally cloudy skies and fairly high freezing levels. This time of year once the deeper snowpack is at the freezing point as it is now up to around 6000' north and 7000' south it is pretty hard to get much freezing at depth. Only Thursday is a cool day and cloudy skies mean no radiational cooling. So a soggy snowpack with any warming by sun or weather systems. Wet avalanches will be the rule with some long runouts due to the wet snow at moderate and lower elevations with fresh windslabs at high elevations. Deeper layers of damp or wet snow will be the clue as to hazard.

[Jake Robinson]

I really appreciate all the updates gb, thanks.

[puzzlr]

I second that gb, thanks for continuing to post. Of course I read NWAC carefully, but you have a way of explaining conditions that's very practical and understandable.