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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:52 am
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While things are up and down the next week, it could get hot and stay that way beginning Sunday, but especially Monday-Tuesday of next week (eight days out). Currently that looks like 80 degrees at 5000' with almost no wind. But when these transitions happen, they are often initially understated.....
Just lucky the Cascades have picked up 1-2" of rain this past couple of days. But east of the Cascades it was still bone dry as of yesterday though there was heavy rain at Easton in the evening. Thus far most east side sites have just a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch.
The Baker and Paradise NWAC sites show 8-18" of new snow at 6000-7500', which instead of turning to corn will go right away to slop.
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Matt Lemke High on the Outdoors
Joined: 15 Jul 2010 Posts: 2052 | TRs | Pics Location: Grand Junction |
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Matt Lemke
High on the Outdoors
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Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:26 pm
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This may be just what I need to finish the Bulgers
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wildernessed viewbagger
Joined: 31 Oct 2004 Posts: 9275 | TRs | Pics Location: Wenatchee |
My mother asked me when I was coming back East to visit and I told her when the smoke starts.
Living in the Anthropocene
Living in the Anthropocene
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:59 am
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Matt Lemke wrote: | This may be just what I need to finish the Bulgers |
What are the bulgers? Are those the swellings you get from insect bites?
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Schenk Off Leash Man
Joined: 16 Apr 2012 Posts: 2372 | TRs | Pics Location: Traveling, with the bear, to the other side of the Mountain |
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Schenk
Off Leash Man
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:39 am
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Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
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geyer Member
Joined: 23 May 2017 Posts: 462 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle |
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geyer
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:54 pm
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gb wrote: | Currently that looks like 80 degrees at 5000' with almost no wind. |
gb where are you getting this info from?
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:18 pm
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Well this forecast more or less busted. I was going off the GFS and 850 mb charts which were moving more strongly in the direction of a heat wave. But then, this Friday system now looks to become a cut-off low over mostly eastern Oregon and that increases the likelihood of thunderstorms along the Cascade Crest and to the east and holds heights down in Washington with little effect in the Olympics. It still looks to become above normal in the mountains beginning about Sunday or Monday but temperatures look now like mid-70's to upper 70's by the end of next week. But model forecasts don't do well with the motion or changes in upper lows so at this point I wouldn't put much faith in what is going to happen after Saturday or Sunday. No confidence longer term.
But about this time of year when a big ridge builds along the west coast with a low off the coast in the gulf of Alaska, it is often the transition to summer warmth.
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1510 | TRs | Pics
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I wouldn't exactly call it a bust... the GFS just likes to overestimate the strength of features a bit. Still going to be hotter than normal this upcoming week though... perhaps not quite the extremes that the GFS was saying a few days ago but the GFS likes to do that.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:02 am
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Actually, in forecasting heat waves I often find that the GFS and NWS forecasts (using multiple models) initially under forecast how warm it will get. It started to look that way in this case as a couple/few models were initially looking progressively warmer. Then, it went the other way and it still is trending this way. Yesterday's 850mb temperatures looked warmer out a few days than today's does. Temperatures aloft for a sunny period under high pressure now don't look particularly abnormal: 5000' temperatures from near 70 to near 80 depending on location (warmest on the east side). The lack of wind and June sun will make it feel warmer.
Apparently, however, lowland temperatures are forecast right around record levels beginning tomorrow or more likely Monday.
Anyway, I don't like warm to hot temperatures hiking, and so, I took my own advice. Yesterday was beautiful with temps mostly in the 50's. Towering cumulus were in the area but I only heard thunder once somewhere a good distance away. There were a couple of areas of light rain not far away. I'll hike early Sunday. After that I'll park it until Thursday or Friday.
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1510 | TRs | Pics
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Previous flavors of the GFS, especially the really old really low resolution versions, probably did underestimate things. The latest version(a year and half old IIRC) does overdo most wave patterns though, especially in the long range. However the latest version did come with a major overall accuracy increase in surface temperature and wind fields, and it is now smoking the other models(except for the euro whose stats I do not tally).
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:45 am
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thunderhead wrote: | Previous flavors of the GFS, especially the really old really low resolution versions, probably did underestimate things. The latest version(a year and half old IIRC) does overdo most wave patterns though, especially in the long range. However the latest version did come with a major overall accuracy increase in surface temperature and wind fields, and it is now smoking the other models(except for the euro whose stats I do not tally). |
Interesting, I didn't know it had been revised.
Something I've always used in prognosticating is the "first derivative" of the forecast models. It kind of goes like what we were talking about in this current heatwave. But I also use it in winter. So let's say that two days ago the models (as I say I only take the time to look at the GFS for most long term planning and the Forecast Discussion which fills me in on other models) that they were forecasting 850 temps to use an example of 18C. Now, two days later they forecast 20C. I usually find that that " trend" in the model will continue to go in the same direction for some undefined period of time. It really doesn't matter to me what variables are causing that under or over forecasting, just that it is happening. I've made the assumption that the models use some degree of long term persistence or climatology and I know that is the case from CPC discussions. So the models basically say that in this situation in the past this is what should happen give current parameters. And then, that there is something that the model is not picking up sufficiently be it ocean patterns or atmospheric patterns.
A good example was the very warm and dry month of May. Looking out 3 days the forecasts remained dry, but looking out 5-10 days the GFS much of May kept making it look like the end of warm and dry would come and we would get much needed rain. But it never happened. It stayed dry and warm and even when finally at the end of May and early June turned cool to normal, no rain came. It wasn't until the past week that we finally got enough rain to make a dent.
Using my "first derivative" concept, I am pleased that this current heat wave at least at 850mb petered out as we moved forward in time. I am hopeful that this will continue to be the case as similar meteorological heat wave patterns over the course of at least the early summer develop. For instance, one of the first signs of the possibility of a heat wave is the building of surface heat in the Four Corners. As that heat spreads north we are potentially at risk. So, right now ten days out the GFS shows record temperatures in the Four Corners. I'll be watching this Four Corners model "development" to see if it really happens as a data point for the "first derivative" concept.
The last two late springs and early summers have been miserably hot (record hot) in the Four Corners and our summers have sucked as I see it. Maybe this won't be a threepeat.
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1510 | TRs | Pics
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Quote: | I've made the assumption that the models use some degree of long term persistence or climatology and I know that is the case from CPC discussions. |
They used to for ocean-ice-land variables, although I believe the latest GFS version is, or at least tries to be, fully coupled with dependent variables of air-ocean-land-ice, initialized with real-world data. I know the air and ocean surface initializations are almost always great, but don't know how often ice and soil parameters default to climate values if real-time data is missing or suspect. Then there is a whole range of stats-tweaked mixes of climate and raw model data on various websites, that can add accuracy. Also the model was developed to provide the best accuracy based on prior experience, which in a way is putting some climatology in there.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:59 am
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Here we go again. Quite cool Friday but then progressively warmer especially after the weekend. Initially with the heat wave, freezing levels are not as high as last week and mountain temperatures (except west side valleys) may be about five degrees cooler than last week despite hot lowland temperatures west of the Cascades. But if the GFS model bears out mountain temperatures get bloody hot by the end of next week; perhaps 4-8 degrees hotter than last week at 5000'. The SW near the west coast could easily get to all-time record highs in the extended period. And very high temperatures near record levels look to persist from central Oregon and south.
Don't go east towards Montana after about Tuesday nor south.......
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Schenk Off Leash Man
Joined: 16 Apr 2012 Posts: 2372 | TRs | Pics Location: Traveling, with the bear, to the other side of the Mountain |
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Schenk
Off Leash Man
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Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:02 am
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gb wrote: | Don't go east towards Montana after about Tuesday nor south....... |
Would you elaborate just a bit?
Thank you GB!
Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
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treeswarper Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006 Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:38 am
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The wind is blowing out of the north. BC has a lot of fires going right now. So, guess what? It isn't so thick that you can't see across the valley yet, but you can see it, and smell it. Yup, the smoke is here again.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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