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MtnGoat
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PostThu Aug 09, 2018 10:04 pm 
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I appreciate there are more things to consider than price. China in particular has been using practices I don't think are sound either. But the issue that you can't but help to add cost to baseload by adding green power won't change for them either.

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Ski
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PostThu Aug 09, 2018 10:15 pm 
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The Chinese government realized they needed to do something about air quality several years ago when the State-paid costs of treating respiratory ailments skyrocketed.
Their motivation to do something was money, not just PR.

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RandyHiker
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 5:21 am 
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MtnGoat wrote:
But the issue that you can't but help to add cost to baseload by adding green power won't change for them either

I think in China's case they already have sufficient coal fired base load capacity .  An indicator of this that have stopped building new coal generation plants and have been building solar generation instead.

There is no need to build fossil fueled base load capacity for industrial uses such as aluminum smelting.  When cheap electrons from solar or hydro aren't available it doesn't make economic sense to burn coal, oil or gas to generate electricity to make aluminum.

In the PNW we have a very distorted view of electrical pricing with abundant and cheap hydro power.  In states where fossil fuel generation is dominant residential rates are 2 - 3 times per kwh what we pay here in Washington.

Solar generation and hydro generation have a similar cost profile -- in that the vast majority of the cost is construction and operating costs are low.  Fossil fuel plants have the opposite profile, the plants are relatively cheap to build, but costly to operate.
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Byeguys
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 8:46 am 
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I spent a few days starting and stopping, typing and deleting, ranting at MG and stopping to think about it.

Too late for any of that now. No cure for myopia sadly, and it looks like our last realistic chance at keeping it down to a 2 degree increase is passing us by now. Watching the fires around the globe - Spain, Greece, California - and considering the rate at which reef and sea life is declining, I'm glad our generations were born in times that afforded us the chance to see some of these things in their full beauty, vibrant and unchallenged yet by man.

And I'm sad and disappointed that we have failed as the stewards of this place.
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gb
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 8:48 am 
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MtnGoat wrote:

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I don't need to pretend. I argue for by the numbers standard method here

IF you were engaged in actual science, you'd merely show us the actual flaws in my arguments

Here you go:

For your data you look at selected individual small towns like Poughkeepsie and Dusty, and then misrepresent those carefully selected individual sites to be accurate records of global temperature. This is, of course, BS. Here is the real record of earth surface temperatures: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

And the graph of CO2: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide

If you can propose that the earth surface is not warming and that CO2 is rising commensurately, let’s hear it. Otherwise no more BS.

If you think there is another reason that makes any sense at all that C02 is rising other than anthropocentric causes, let’s see your proof. Otherwise no more BS.

You are either argumentative, protecting financial self interests, or just plain unobservant.

I frankly find it amusing that people respond to your BS as if it had any validity. That ship sailed long ago.

I note that Goat did not address the issues above. In as much as his views of Global Warming are out in space statistically, it is Goat that must support his position, not the other way around. I supported mine with the links above. Goat didn't answer.
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thunderhead
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 10:17 am 
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In states where fossil fuel generation is dominant residential rates are 2 - 3 times per kwh what we pay here in Washington.

An exaggeration.  While our dams are awesome and give us an edge on cheap and clean power, other states with low taxes, cheap land and labor can match us on cost even when burning mostly fossil fuels.  Louisiana even beats us(of course no one wants to live there so land is basically free).

https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/power-plants/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.861e349dc72b
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RandyHiker
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 10:59 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
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In states where fossil fuel generation is dominant residential rates are 2 - 3 times per kwh what we pay here in Washington.

An exaggeration.

How so ?  Hawaii is 100% oil generation and 3x Washington's   NE states that are largely coal fired are 2x Washington's rates.

Washington 9.70

...

Hawaii 32.03
Alaska 22.16
Massachusetts 21.69
Connecticut 21.54
Rhode Island 20.03
New Hampshire 19.76
California 18.91
New York 18.52
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gb
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 11:16 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
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In states where fossil fuel generation is dominant residential rates are 2 - 3 times per kwh what we pay here in Washington.

An exaggeration.  While our dams are awesome and give us an edge on cheap and clean power, other states with low taxes, cheap land and labor can match us on cost even when burning mostly fossil fuels.  Louisiana even beats us(of course no one wants to live there so land is basically free).

https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/power-plants/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.861e349dc72b

Not so fast. There is a difference between the cost of electric power generation and the prices paid. There may even be subsidies in some locations. It appears wind is at least even with the lowest cost of older generation technologies excepting hydro. And some forms of solar are right there as well. In addition the costs of solar and wind are dropping fast as the technology advances and economies of scale kick in. China is leading the way and they are not dumb (like us).

Electric plant generation costs: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#IRENA_(2018)
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thunderhead
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 11:34 am 
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Don't get me wrong, hydro is great, probably the best until fusion comes around, but 2-3x is clearly an exaggeration.  The average fossil fuel state is about 1.4x our price.


Gb, the dropping costs of wind and solar are encouraging but their price rapidly increases (above those values) as grid penetration exceeds something like 30%, due to the increasing difficulty of managing erratic supply.  In most places they are not close ready to take more than about 30% of the yearly load by themselves, and even at 0% still often lose to natural gas on price.


If the decreasing trend continues at this pace, then in the very near future 30% yearly load becomes realistic.

Vast changes or tech increases are required to ask them to take more than ~30%.  I personally think that fusion will be ready before the storage required for erratic renewables to shoulder the entire load are ready.

Alas Hydro cannot be increased much... most of the easily available river power is already harnessed.
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RandyHiker
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 12:03 pm 
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thunderhead wrote:
Don't get me wrong, hydro is great, probably the best until fusion comes around, but 2-3x is clearly an exaggeration.  The average fossil fuel state is about 1.4x our price.

Try giving GB links a read -- they give the generation cost averages for the USA -- for 2016 costs per kwh

Nuclear 25.36
Fossil Steam 36.08
Hydro-electric 10.98
Gas Turbine and Small Scale 30.19

Seems pretty close to 3x between hydro and coal/oil/gas to me!

Too bad solar figures aren't included.

thunderhead wrote:
probably the best until fusion comes around

That's hilarious -- anyone suggesting fusion as an option is really just saying "do nothing, the status quo is fine".
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thunderhead
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 12:21 pm 
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generation cost

Too bad you said residential cost, which most certainly is not generation cost.
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thunderhead
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 12:22 pm 
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And the current state of affairs is fine, at least for a while.
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RandyHiker
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 12:32 pm 
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thunderhead wrote:
And the current state of affairs is fine, at least for a while.


https://goo.gl/images/rgKF1D
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gb
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 2:39 pm 
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RandyHiker wrote:
thunderhead wrote:
And the current state of affairs is fine, at least for a while.


https://goo.gl/images/rgKF1D

Looks fine to me: Looking good!
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Ski
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PostFri Aug 10, 2018 7:34 pm 
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RandyHiker wrote:
Hawaii is 100% oil generation

So.... the wind turbines are just for show? dizzy.gif

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I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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