Forum Index > Stewardship > It may get worse - coming El Nino bad winter, dry summer
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gb
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PostWed Aug 15, 2018 5:35 am 
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Howard Sheckter of Mammoth Weather posted this:
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El Nino is expected to strengthen this fall and Winter….  Lets hope it is not a *Modoki El Nino!  Highs will be in the 80s this weekend with lows in the 40s.

*The El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific. Associated with this SSTA pattern is distinct warming and cooling which effect teleconnections very differently from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Modoki El Ninos are often but not always dry in California. So confidence in a wet El Nino Winter for California is more limited….Will This be a Modoki El Nino Winter?   Only time will tell. Should know later in the Fall….
“Modoki” events:   1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.

I looked up the snow history at Paradise and found that 1957-59 were at least average snow years, 1963-64 and the preceding winter were among the poorest at Crystal Mountain, 1965-66 was near normal, 1968-70 were good to very good but the year before,1967-68, was very poor, 1977-78 was a bit below average but the year before, 1976-77 was very poor, 1979-80 was a bit below average as was the preceding year but the year after, 1980-81, was very poor. So, all of the really poor (record setting poor) snowpack years were either preceding or just after an El Nino Modoki. Of course, the winter of 2014-15, when it essentially never snowed until spring, blew away the records of all the other low snowpack years.

But this begs the question of whether this summer’s weather very dry (near record) and very warm (near record) is already seeing some presaging effect of an El Nino event and then, of course, just how bad drought conditions would be if this develops. Long term CPC Outlooks all the way through next summer look very bleak.


https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2822/what-is-el-niño-modoki

Notice the last line in the blog summarizing numerous papers. And compare that to the snowfall records above. You can look up the actual snowpack history of Paradise, I just summarized it.


Climate Prediction Center Enso Discussion Current:
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The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Niño most likely thereafter (Fig. 6). Model predictions for El Niño have not wavered despite the recent decrease in the positive SST anomalies in portions of the eastern Pacific. Because of the consistency of forecasts and the expected eventual resurgence in the low-level westerly wind anomalies, the forecasters still favor the onset of El Niño in the coming months. In summary, there is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
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PostWed Aug 15, 2018 6:40 am 
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Voila! I just visited JAMSTEC and found this graph of El Nino Modoki events:


That completes it. The other really bad and record setting poor snow year at Paradise was 2004-5. All El Ninos are not the same and this explains why. This perfectly matches my memory and recordings of unusually dry, warm springs and summers and poor winters.
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PostWed Aug 15, 2018 7:32 am 
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Some may find this paper as the one defining El Nino Modoki interesting although it is technical and long. I merely skimmed it looking for parts I was interested in. Towards the end it explains correlations between El Nino Modiki and observed changes in climate on certain parts of the globe. It also explains the ramifications of differences from El Nino, which is apparently in it's effects statistically a different animal.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/publications/modoki-ashok.pdf
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PostThu Aug 16, 2018 10:26 am 
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Dang...Thanks GB for the insight

Everyone pray for SNOW!!!!!
Burn skis as an offering to Ullr, supplicate, plead, beg, bribe...whatever you can DO!

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PostThu Aug 16, 2018 12:04 pm 
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As long as it stays in the mountains where it belongs. Is there a way to invoke that?

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PostThu Aug 16, 2018 2:47 pm 
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Schenk wrote:
Dang...Thanks GB for the insight

Everyone pray for SNOW!!!!!
Burn skis as an offering to Ullr, supplicate, plead, beg, bribe...whatever you can DO!

Of course, no one knows whether this winter's El Nino is to be the really bad kind (Modoki). We have to hope that it won't be. What was really interesting to me was how El Nino Modoki lined up with all the really bad winters (or sometimes just before or after) from not only my memory but that were infamous in NWAC records. I could tell you on each year what I found so unusual from my activities. For example recall 1986; well 1985 was not such a great ski year either. I recall skiing on February 1st of 1985 in good deep snow but on a hard ice base in the Tatoosh. To that point that was one of the few good ski days. My records would indicate that March was much better.

On the larger scale I cross my fingers that the past two summers are not yet the new normal but that they are an aberration in swings back and forth amplified by global warming and perhaps some as yet unknown signal of El Nino Modoki, or some other cause. That is at least plausible. We will see.
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PostSat Aug 25, 2018 6:46 am 
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Found this article suggesting that El Nino modoki leads to worse hurricane seasons in the SE US:

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=7992490&page=1
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PostTue Sep 04, 2018 5:16 pm 
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Current September 1st update, don't wax your skis!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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PostTue Oct 23, 2018 10:11 am 
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Current October 10th CPC update predicts a weak El Nino with +.7C ocean temperatures lasting through the late spring of 2019.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
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treeswarper
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PostTue Oct 23, 2018 10:27 am 
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The winter of 80/81 was a poor one for snow.  But the summer of 81 in the Methow Valley area was a damp one.  I had wet feet quite a bit of the time.  In fact, it seemed like we other damp summers after that for a bit.  There wasn't much fire activity to be had.

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PostSun Nov 11, 2018 6:56 pm 
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This winter looks bad with a warm area of water in the NE Pacific and the likelihood of an El Modoki El Nino. Howard Sheckter likes the Pioneer model as being a good forecaster of longer range El Nino forecasts. The current model makes this winter look quite bleak in the Pacific Northwest and especially in British Columbia.

https://bluehill.org/Winter_2018-19_jd.pdf
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PostFri Dec 07, 2018 9:35 am 
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Some may find this video showing how to interpret ENSO discussion presentations informative. Realize that this particular discussion is already out of date.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_R9r88lX98k
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Forum Index > Stewardship > It may get worse - coming El Nino bad winter, dry summer
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