Forum Index > Trail Talk > Mega- snow at Baker summit predicted. Late November 2018
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Brushbuffalo
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PostMon Nov 26, 2018 1:11 pm 
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This somewhat sensational report suggests this storm may dump around 12 feet of snow around the summit of Mt. Baker.  Part of why I'm dubbing it 'somewhat sensational' is because 145" inches (~12 feet) is based on adding all of the maximum daily values from the range given. If we add all of the minima, the total is 112" still a prodigous amount of snow!

Typically in the North Cascades, probably even at snowy Mt.Baker, the maximum annual snowfall occurs between about 7,000 and 9,000' due to generally warmer (but still subfreezing) air, which can 'hold'  more water vapor than colder air normally found at higher elevations. However, there are no snow gages at those higher elevations near Mt. Baker, so we don't know for sure. ( However the accumulation zone of a glacier, where annual mass-gain exceeds annual loss, is a reasonable ' snow gage').

This storm, however it turns out, is not forecast to dump great gobs of snow at the Mt. Baker Ski Area, which tops out at around 5,000'. Instead due to this 'Pacific river' of warm air (temps in the 40s at 5,000'), the slopes would be more suited to water skiing. shakehead.gif

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Passing rocks and trees like they were standing still
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thunderhead
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PostMon Nov 26, 2018 2:15 pm 
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Its in the right ballpark but a touch high I think.  Averaging all the reliable computer weather models together gives about 7-8 inches of liquid precip there.  Models underestimate precip at summits by about 1.5 times, maybe a little less for the absolute tops of isolated conical peaks.  So I think 10 inches of precip * 10 for a typical snow/liquid ratio = 100 inches is a good bet.

Alas the freezing level for most of it will be ~8500 feet there frown.gif

Of course the summit will also be nuked by hurricane winds, so the southwest side will get scoured to a couple inches of rime ice while protected slots on the northeast will get nearly infinite drifts.
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thunderhead
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PostMon Nov 26, 2018 2:19 pm 
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http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2018112618&fh=78&r=us_nw&dpdt=

Some of the raw model output if you are interested.
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wildcat
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PostWed Nov 28, 2018 9:59 am 
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The QPF plot looks interesting, but I am not sure I understand how to read it.  Is it total accumulation for the year in inches of rain?  Curious if there is a public database/model anywhere that predicts total accumulation of snow? Thanks! smile.gif

edit:  looks like the same web site has a snow depth model as well, kinda cool:
pivotalweather snow depth
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kiliki
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PostWed Nov 28, 2018 2:36 pm 
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Every year around this time of year both Unofficial Networks and Snowbrains have headlines like, "30 Feet of Snow forecasted at Whistler!" It goes without saying it never pans out, or the forecast is for an area that isn't of use to most skiers (like the summit of Baker).
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Forum Index > Trail Talk > Mega- snow at Baker summit predicted. Late November 2018
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