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thunderhead
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 9:14 am 
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Sculpin wrote:
A Pliocene climate is very much preferable to another Ice Age.

Correct.  Cooling is downright deadly.
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Anne Elk
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 1:06 pm 
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^^^^ So is warming.  It's going to get ugly on the coasts with sea-level rise:
NOAA sea level rise viewer  Note: the page loads pretty slowly.

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MtnGoat
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 1:47 pm 
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U.S. Set To Pump More Oil Than Russia And Saudis Combined



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The United States, having regained its position as the world’s top liquids producer in 2014, is poised to accelerate into a league of its own over the next six years and eclipse the collective output of its two closest rivals by 2025,” said Rystad Energy partner Artem Abramov.

Historically, the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia have consistently switched places at the top of the global list of liquid producers – measuring crude oil, lease condensate and plant natural gas liquids – but lately market-driven US oil activity and production has built significant momentum. The US has not seen its liquids market share exceed 50% among the “Big Three” producing nations since 1970.

“US growth potential could be slowed if oil prices slide below our base case for extended periods but, as long as average prices stay above $50, positive US production tendencies will persist,” Abramov added.

Let's use this bounty of cheap energy to improve our standard of living, not harm it by forcing people to pay more for electrons, and everything else, on the basis of lousy models and lousy arguments based on them.

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thunderhead
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 1:49 pm 
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The seas are rising at around a foot per century... thats about as far from deadly as I can possibly imagine.
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gb
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 8:20 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
The seas are rising at around a foot per century... thats about as far from deadly as I can possibly imagine.

The rate of change is likely to increase as the significance of atmospheric CO2 and changes in the jet stream manifest in more severe climate change.

As to cold weather being "deadly", I think you will find that in the past twenty years the most deadly weather events, excepting typhoons and hurricanes, has been heatwaves. But prove me wrong.

Ask the Australians how their summer has been......
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Chief Joseph
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 8:34 am 
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To me, debating Global Warming is pretty much a waste of time. If indeed the human race is causing the rapid increase, good luck getting people to change their ways....and if they do, likely it will be too late.

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joker
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 9:15 am 
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Perhaps true but of course even you've joined the fray  wink.gif


As for the badness of warming versus cooling, that's a strange way of trying to dodge the concerns about warming. It's not as if we'll just see agriculture move smoothly northward - expect big and challenging disruptions as arable land decreases in some areas, and don't expect northern latitudes to just instantly be picking up the slack, good Okanagan wines  notwithstanding. You have too look at things like fertility of soils etc. (including the possible meaning  of research results showing increased pestilence when CO2 concentration in the air is increased in open-air greenhouses). Water supplies are also going to lead to major cross-country-boundary disruptions (and already have been doing  so in some particularly vulnerable areas of the world. This adds on top of things like huge storm surges (the real problem with sea level rise in the medium term is how it combines with increased storm strength particularly in lower lying areas like the lower parts of Manhattan that already saw a glimpse of the  future  during  Sandy, a bunch of FL and TX, etc etc) and impact of heatwaves (count up the deaths from the  past 12 months alone in that regard before claiming "not deadly").
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MtnGoat
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 9:28 am 
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gb wrote:
The rate of change is likely to increase as the significance of atmospheric CO2 and changes in the jet stream manifest in more severe climate change.

As to cold weather being "deadly", I think you will find that in the past twenty years the most deadly weather events, excepting typhoons and hurricanes, has been heatwaves. But prove me wrong.

Ask the Australians how their summer has been......

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/05/20/cold-weather-deaths/27657269/

Quote:
The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

Quote:
This report backs up a U.S. study last year from the National Center for Health Statistics, which found that cold kills more than twice as many Americans as heat.


https://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-cold-hot-weather-deaths-20150520-story.html

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CC
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 9:37 pm 
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OK, if some of you are waiting for proof positive that global warming is here, here it is:

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/02/06/farmers-keep-mora-s-famed-ski-race-running

Now the actual story is compelling; the fact that Twin Cities' average winter temp is 6 degrees warmer than when I lived there in 1970 (no, it's not a heat island effect), and the need to farm snow for the race nowadays (yes, I too wonder how well the manure spreaders were cleaned).  But the final straw is this: on the same page where this story was posted was a story reminding people HOW TO DRIVE IN THE SNOW!  If you now have to remind Minnesotans how to drive in the snow, the global-warming apocalypse is here.  No further proof is necessary,

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Sculpin
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PostFri Feb 08, 2019 7:57 am 
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joker wrote:
As for the badness of warming versus cooling, that's a strange way of trying to dodge the concerns about warming.

Well, things kind of got twisted there so this is a bit of a straw man.  The subject was not Nora freezing on the trolley.  It was continental glaciers covering Wisconsin.  This is not argument-flinging, I am really and truly nonplussed that mankind has forgotten what was considered a certainty, that the ice would return. A Pliocene climate would have much more arable land than an Ice Age.

There are lots of comments in this thread with the general claim of "its much warmer now than it was decades ago."  While the (indisputable) modern warming is supportive of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), and cooling would be conflicting, there are multi-decadal weather patterns that need to be accounted for.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was discovered when scientists noted that the lakes of eastern Oregon filled and dryed up on a multi-decadal scale.  There is currently insufficient knowledge of climate history to really say how much the weather over the last few decades has been influenced by this and other multi-decadal phenomena.

Heats waves in Australia don't really mean anything either.  I know you see this sort of thing where the scientists at Realclimate publish a probability density function that shows that "heat wave x" would have been very unlikely unless the world had warmed.  It is difficult to convey just how bad this sort of thing is from a scientific standpoint - purely speculative, untestable, etc.  Cliff Mass has become somewhat controversial, but he is spot on with this topic.  If every heat wave is proof of global warming, then every cold wave is proof that it is wrong?  Its all wrong.

AGW is an entirely reasonable theory.  But it is also really complicated (you may not realize just how complicated unless you have done some real digging) and it requires lots of weakly supported assumptions to be true.

My own preference would be to separate the debate about sustainability - which I believe to be a moral imperative - from global warming.  But neither side of the debate seems to want to do that!

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Even my best friends, they don't know, that my job is turning lead into gold. When you hear that engine drone, I'm on the road again, and I'm searching for the philosopher's stone - Van Morrison
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Alpine Pedestrian
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PostFri Feb 08, 2019 8:18 am 
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Anyone else remember Rod Serling's 1961 Twilight Zone episode about an earth getting hotter v. an earth getting colder?  Rod's comment at the end says it all.

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2ee3q9
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MtnGoat
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PostThu Feb 14, 2019 2:41 pm 
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MtnGoat wrote:
Decoupling EPA grant recipients from the board making decisions which the EPA acts on. In one case, 86% of board members were EPA grant recipients. I know, they're white robed zen exemplars free of the troublesome weaknesses of all other humans. That's why they're appointed interpreters of the runes who cannot be questioned by the little people.

Milloy’s 2012 research demonstrated that six of the seven CASAC members at the time had received or were still receiving research grant funding totaling nearly $80 million.



Quote:
Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt announced Tuesday he planned to curtail the practice of distributing research grants to scientists appointed to the agency’s scientific advisory boards to improve their “independence and transparency and objectivity.”

Quote:
“If we have individuals who are on those boards receiving money from the agency, sometimes, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, that calls into question the independence of the recommendations that come our way,” Pruitt said, speaking at a Heritage Foundation event. “Next week, I will issue a directive that addresses that, to ensure the independence and transparency and objectivity with respect to the scientific advice that we are getting at the agency.”



Good news...the DC district court has approved dismissal of a suit intended to stop the policy of prohibiting scientists on advisory boards from getting grants from the entity they are advising.

MtnGoat wrote:
Judge Trevor McFadden ruled against environmental groups, led by Physicians for Social Responsibility, and agreed to dismiss all four counts leveled against EPA’s ethics policy. President Donald Trump appointed McFadden to the D.C. District Court in 2017.

“In sum, Physicians have not plausibly alleged a conflict between the Directive and the conflict of interest statute and [Office of Government Ethics (OGE)] regulations,” McFadden wrote in his opinion issued Tuesday.

Supporters of EPA’s ethics policy were happy with McFadden’s ruling, including Steve Milloy, publisher of JunkScience.com. For years, Milloy pushed to stop EPA advisory boards from letting members also take money from the agency.

We deserve decisions from advisory boards which are not tainted by the board members getting grants from the entity they are advising.

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Chief Joseph
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PostFri Feb 22, 2019 12:26 pm 
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Flagstaff, Arizona, a record 2 feet of snow in what, a 24 hour period? Global warming?

I know that overall the earths temperature went up last year with record heat in many areas, but apparently the USA, to blame for many of the Greenhouse Gasses are going the other way.

Obviously Global Warming is real, but as has been said ad nauseam, that has been happening for millions of years, way prior to any human influence.

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Tom
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PostFri Feb 22, 2019 3:54 pm 
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There was a pretty good video posted a while back.  I'll see if I can find it but made it pretty easy to understand what's going on, even for the layman.  Basically we are in an ice age where the earth should be cooling (not warming) but we've changed things enough for it to go in the other direction.  Temporary weather events really don't factor into the equation.

Edit: here it is on page 571:  http://www.nwhikers.net/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1084634#1084634
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drm
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PostTue Feb 26, 2019 3:27 pm 
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Chief Joseph wrote:
Flagstaff, Arizona, a record 2 feet of snow in what, a 24 hour period? Global warming?

No, climate change.
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