Forum Index > Trail Talk > The world as we know it is coming to an end!
 Reply to topic
Previous :: Next Topic
Author Message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostSun Feb 17, 2019 10:37 am 
Not immediately, but soon. This amazing stretch of cool to cold weather finally looks like it will end around February 26th and then all the more so by March 2nd or so with temperatures going well above normal for at least several days. The cold weather will be replaced by warmer air and the promise of one or more of my other all-time favorite things, another blooming Pineapple Express. All Things Must Pass

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostSun Feb 17, 2019 11:09 am 
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSun Feb 17, 2019 2:02 pm 
Here comes the flood.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Joseph
Joseph



Joined: 13 Jun 2018
Posts: 258 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle
Joseph
Joseph
PostTue Feb 19, 2019 1:50 pm 
And on April 15, we will all be singing... Taxman Where are you getting your information/ forecast ? I am showing continued cold.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
MtnGoat
Member
Member


Joined: 17 Dec 2001
Posts: 11992 | TRs | Pics
Location: Lyle, WA
MtnGoat
Member
PostTue Feb 19, 2019 2:34 pm 
My 2 week forecast site shows continued cold and snow/winter mix through the 5th of March gb's long term predictions tend to run hot tongue.gif

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
nordique
Member
Member


Joined: 04 May 2008
Posts: 1086 | TRs | Pics
nordique
Member
PostWed Feb 20, 2019 8:25 pm 
North Bend area forecast: THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs near 40. Southeast wind to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. FRIDAY...Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 500 feet increasing to 1000 feet in the afternoon. Highs near 40. South wind 10 to 15 mph. SATURDAY...Rain and snow showers likely. Snow level near 1000 feet. Highs near 40. SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level near 500 feet. Highs near 40. MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Highs near 40. TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain and snow in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow level near 500 feet in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow level near 1500 feet. Highs in the lower 40s. Thanks for the forecast update, Gary!

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



Joined: 25 Jul 2008
Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics
Location: The Hermitage
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostWed Feb 20, 2019 10:56 pm 
Even with all of our amazing 21st century technology, weather forecasts for this area simply aren't reliable more than 48-72 hours out. Sometimes the planets align and a forecast a week or more out turns out right, but the odds of that happening go way down once you get beyond that 72 hour window. Only one thing's for sure - We are heading into spring and the weather *will* warm up from the rather chilly current state of affairs.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Brushwork
Food truck



Joined: 18 Aug 2018
Posts: 508 | TRs | Pics
Location: Washington
Brushwork
Food truck
PostWed Feb 20, 2019 11:50 pm 
I did see some Osmoronia showing a few blossoms today on lower Tiger 3 trail today. ( Indian plum). and the sun was shining and actually warming on the summit...., For a few minutes it was quite comfortable! Surprising considering how winter like it was up there.

When I grow up I wanna play.
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Joey
verrry senior member



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 2794 | TRs | Pics
Location: Redmond
Joey
verrry senior member
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 4:43 am 
Brushwork wrote:
I did see some Osmoronia showing a few blossoms today on lower Tiger 3 trail today. ( Indian plum).
Our Indian plum was in record early bloom before the snopw hit.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 6:47 am 
Bedivere wrote:
Even with all of our amazing 21st century technology, weather forecasts for this area simply aren't reliable more than 48-72 hours out. Sometimes the planets align and a forecast a week or more out turns out right, but the odds of that happening go way down once you get beyond that 72 hour window.
That all depends on the meteorological situation which can be rather static or highly volatile. Sometimes it is possible to forecast further out and sometimes not. When longer term forecasts are consistent on day to day runs in several consecutive runs they are likely to be rather accurate, but may miss the timing or significance of events. That can be true even of pretty short range forecasts as with the first of the recent snows as I recall they did not think Seattle/Puget Sound would get snow. More recently they have been over-forecasting how cold it is going to get as systems pass and the cold/Canadian air moves towards us. That is one of the reasons besides climatology that I think we will start to see a substantial change around the last day or so of February. Yesterday's morning GFX still shows a couple of Pineapple Expresses but has moved them to the SE Olympics and Oregon border. They still show a trend to above normal freezing levels the first few/several days of March here, but a day or so later than the run(s)-several-that I referred to. But they are still varying a bit, so we will see. In 2012 I watched the SW Canadian situation for a couple of three days for the last ten days of September. They were very consistent, showing very good weather for about 7 days, then a one day rain, then two more days of good weather with the prospect of more good weather being hinted at. With a couple of family members I made reservations for a six day backpack (day two), reserved a room for day 8, and made another hard to get reservation for days nine and ten. When I arrived in Canada the forecasts still verified. The six days backpacking were beautiful. At a room in the Banff area on day 7 it rained all day probably around 3/4". The next two days were glorious. Almost at the end of September, then, the forecast beyond the end of this ten day period no longer looked as good. But there was one more good day so I hiked solo in the Purcells before heading home. The accuracy of these forecasts at this one point in time was remarkable and I was rewarded. So, it depends. I often plan trips 4-6 days out but continue to update depending on model run consistency and Forecast Discussion confirmation of what I think I see. The forecasters look at multiple models and interpret them for me, whereas I tend to look only at the GFS beyond 4 days. I think in planning any trip; and for any extended trip beyond late spring, the best way is to follow models for any extended trip north of about The Nevada border. Colorado trips are another place I would definitely follow long term forecast models before committing. I did that last September. I hiked 9 days and went to my nephew's wedding in Denver. If the weather hadn't looked very good I would simply have flown in and out for the wedding. There was one rainy day which looked a possibility when I left home but was under forecast initially (showed a chance of rain at the Wyoming/Colorado border only). But that was a driving day for us heading to Western Colorado and it cleared in the evening.
Quote:
Only one thing's for sure - We are heading into spring and the weather *will* warm up from the rather chilly current state of affairs.
Climatology, along with an unusual, longer term West coast pattern. Highly unusual.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 8:20 am 
It feels like summer here. It was 31 when I got up. Shorts weather.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
jm31828
Member
Member


Joined: 29 Jul 2011
Posts: 206 | TRs | Pics
jm31828
Member
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 8:41 am 
Great, it's about time if that happens! Normal high here in Seattle this time of year is 50, it's been horrible having it barely breaking 40 degrees each day. Looking forward to normal or above normal temps! But when I look at the 10 day forecast I am only seeing below normal highs into the first week of March?

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 9:04 am 
jm31828 wrote:
Great, it's about time if that happens! Normal high here in Seattle this time of year is 50, it's been horrible having it barely breaking 40 degrees each day. Looking forward to normal or above normal temps! But when I look at the 10 day forecast I am only seeing below normal highs into the first week of March?
Our heat wave was unexpected. Last night's temps were supposed to be in the teens or low 20s here. They missed it by a bit. The weather rock method is looking pretty good right now.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Schenk
Off Leash Man



Joined: 16 Apr 2012
Posts: 2372 | TRs | Pics
Location: Traveling, with the bear, to the other side of the Mountain
Schenk
Off Leash Man
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 11:09 am 
All I can say is that the fish, farmers, and snow sports aficionados appreciated this late shot in the arm of snow. smile.gif up.gif

Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
iron
Member
Member


Joined: 10 Aug 2008
Posts: 6391 | TRs | Pics
Location: southeast kootenays
iron
Member
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 11:41 am 
jm31828 wrote:
Great, it's about time if that happens! Normal high here in Seattle this time of year is 50, it's been horrible having it barely breaking 40 degrees each day. Looking forward to normal or above normal temps! But when I look at the 10 day forecast I am only seeing below normal highs into the first week of March?
the bulk of the last 5 years has been way above average temperatures. nighttime low temps have been way way above average as well. 1 month of cold. boo hoo. the glaciers can be happy for perhaps 1 additional season before they all die off.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
   All times are GMT - 8 Hours
 Reply to topic
Forum Index > Trail Talk > The world as we know it is coming to an end!
  Happy Birthday speyguy, Bandanabraids!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum