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jm31828
Member
Joined: 29 Jul 2011
Posts: 178 | TRs
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| I didn't mean it to sound like I was wishing for 70 degree weather this time of year- I was just finding it unusual and frustrating that we are close to 10 degrees below normal every day for such a long stretch. |
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rossb
Member
Joined: 23 Sep 2002
Posts: 1256 | TRs
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| gb wrote: |
| This amazing stretch of cool to cold weather finally looks like it will end around February 26th ... |
Forecast for the 26th for Seattle (from the National Weather Service):
TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower 40s. |
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Grannyhiker
Member
Joined: 29 Jul 2006
Posts: 3246 | TRs
Location: Gateway to the Columbia Gorge
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I can't help being reminded:
| Quote: |
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice. |
--Robert Frost
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May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view.--E.Abbey |
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Schenk
Off Leash Man
Joined: 16 Apr 2012
Posts: 2290 | TRs
Location: Traveling, with the bear, to the other side of the Mountain
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iron
getting old
Joined: 10 Aug 2008
Posts: 6421 | TRs
Location: kenmore
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dang. that record in australia is crazy. 1.78F above previous record???
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man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what?
--- moe sizlack |
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gb
Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5236 | TRs
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| rossb wrote: |
| gb wrote: |
| This amazing stretch of cool to cold weather finally looks like it will end around February 26th ... |
Forecast for the 26th for Seattle (from the National Weather Service):
TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower 40s. |
Nice one, Rob, but a bit shortsighted. This is actually what the NWS Forecast Long term discussion said both yesterday and today (Wednesday is February 27th):
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Previous discussion...Models
remain out of sync with one another for Tuesday...keeping
confidence in the long term pretty low. Current GFS runs show dry
conditions Tuesday whereas the ECMWF is pretty antithetical to
that. They appear to realign starting Wednesday morning with
conditions being pretty wet over W WA for much of the day and into
the bulk of Thursday as an upper level low moves eastward through
the area. Models diverge again after that as the ECMWF keeps a
troughy pattern over the Pac NW while the GFS ushers in a pretty
steep ridge from over the Pacific. Fortunately...no matter which
model is right regarding the upper level systems...precip and what
have you...the consensus is that snow levels will climb
throughout the long term period...getting up to the 3000-4000 ft
range by Thursday/Friday and as such any precip from Wednesday on
will be liquid. Should this remain consistent in future runs...may
finally be able to put the specter of this winter in the rear
view mirror. SMR |
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Brushwork
Food truck
Joined: 18 Aug 2018
Posts: 370 | TRs
Location: Washington
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Well, it's still winter around Northbend and upper Tiger. I'm liking it, but I don't see it changing in the short term.
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When I grow up I wanna play. |
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rossb
Member
Joined: 23 Sep 2002
Posts: 1256 | TRs
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The point is that the previous long term forecast was wrong. You predicted that around now we would see temperatures well above normal. Instead, we will continue to see temperatures below normal.
At some point though, we will see temperatures close to normal. Wow, crazy!
I'm sorry, but your bold prediction was simply wrong. Just imagine if it really was 55 degrees out today, a couple degrees above normal. You would rightly be trumpeting your bold prediction. It happened a couple days early, but you were right.
Except that didn't happen. It continued cold. It will still be cold past the date you said we were supposed to have "temperatures well above normal". The problem is that long term forecasting is ridiculously unreliable. You might as well consult a groundhog. |
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BigBrunyon
Member
Joined: 19 Mar 2015
Posts: 606 | TRs
Location: the fitness gyms
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Soon enough it'll be time to COMPETE on those hot, steep, dusty slopes. Seriously GAIN on hot days isn't for the weak!!!
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i ALWAYS camp at the upper lake! |
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gb
Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5236 | TRs
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| rossb wrote: |
The point is that the previous long term forecast was wrong. You predicted that around now we would see temperatures well above normal. Instead, we will continue to see temperatures below normal.
At some point though, we will see temperatures close to normal. Wow, crazy!
I'm sorry, but your bold prediction was simply wrong. Just imagine if it really was 55 degrees out today, a couple degrees above normal. You would rightly be trumpeting your bold prediction. It happened a couple days early, but you were right.
Except that didn't happen. It continued cold. It will still be cold past the date you said we were supposed to have "temperatures well above normal". The problem is that long term forecasting is ridiculously unreliable. You might as well consult a groundhog. |
Not a very intelligent attempt at one upsmanship. What is wrong with you? You are confusing ego with interest. Perhaps you have none of the latter.
I forecast what was in the long-term models and what showed up for several days. Even now, forecasting models show temperatures at 5000' of -12C within 50 to 100 miles of temperatures at the same elevation of +8C between Astoria and Salem on several days. It remains not cut and dried and the forecasting models you are assailing continue having trouble dealing with what would be, if it continues as the newest models show, north of Salem an undoubtedly historically long period of pretty cold weather. Through February 22nd at WFO Sandpoint and including 4 warm days at the beginning of February the average temperature has been 36F with an all-time record low February temperature of 35.6 (in the discussion a few days ago). No wonder the models are having trouble with this forecast and the more so when a subtropical jet undercuts the ridge in just a few days. |
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BigBrunyon
Member
Joined: 19 Mar 2015
Posts: 606 | TRs
Location: the fitness gyms
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I just want to know if its gonna snow next couple uh days
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i ALWAYS camp at the upper lake! |
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gb
Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5236 | TRs
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| BigBrunyon wrote: |
| I just want to know if its gonna snow next couple uh days |
The forecasters don't currently think so as of 10 AM. In as much as the U of W MM5 and other models are inconsistent, the best current bets are to continue to read the NWS Seattle Forecast Discussion and watch Satellite imagery for even shorter term.
If you are going to the mountains, use NWAC, NWAC telemetry and Park and ski area webcams. |
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moonspots
Happy Curmudgeon
Joined: 03 Feb 2007
Posts: 2113 | TRs
Location: North Dakota
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| BigBrunyon wrote: |
| I just want to know if its gonna snow next couple uh days |
Go south...
I had not been paying much attention to the PNW weather until my brother called this morning.
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"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology |
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Kim Brown
Member
Joined: 13 Jul 2009
Posts: 5482 | TRs
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Arguing about weather forecasts. 
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" I'm really happy about this! … I have very strong good and horrible memories up there." – oldgranola, NWH’s outdoors advocate. |
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BigBrunyon
Member
Joined: 19 Mar 2015
Posts: 606 | TRs
Location: the fitness gyms
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Its probably on its way up here!!! And likely increasing in speed and intensity!
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i ALWAYS camp at the upper lake! |
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