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jm31828
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PostThu Feb 21, 2019 11:24 am 
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I didn't mean it to sound like I was wishing for 70 degree weather this time of year- I was just finding it unusual and frustrating that we are close to 10 degrees below normal every day for such a long stretch.
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rossb
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PostFri Feb 22, 2019 11:15 am 
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gb wrote:
This amazing stretch of cool to cold weather finally looks like it will end around February 26th ...

Forecast for the 26th for Seattle (from the National Weather Service):

TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower 40s.
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Grannyhiker
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PostFri Feb 22, 2019 1:59 pm 
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I can't help being reminded:

Quote:
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what Ive tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

--Robert Frost

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May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view.--E.Abbey
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Schenk
Off Leash Man



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PostFri Feb 22, 2019 2:53 pm 
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And meanwhile, for the rest of the World: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201901

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Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
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iron
getting old



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getting old
PostFri Feb 22, 2019 2:59 pm 
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Schenk wrote:
And meanwhile, for the rest of the World: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201901

dang. that record in australia is crazy. 1.78F above previous record???

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man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what?

--- moe sizlack
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gb
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PostFri Feb 22, 2019 3:14 pm 
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rossb wrote:
gb wrote:
This amazing stretch of cool to cold weather finally looks like it will end around February 26th ...

Forecast for the 26th for Seattle (from the National Weather Service):

TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower 40s.

Nice one, Rob, but a bit shortsighted. This is actually what the NWS Forecast Long term discussion said both yesterday and today (Wednesday is February 27th):

Quote:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Previous discussion...Models

remain out of sync with one another for Tuesday...keeping

confidence in the long term pretty low. Current GFS runs show dry

conditions Tuesday whereas the ECMWF is pretty antithetical to

that. They appear to realign starting Wednesday morning with

conditions being pretty wet over W WA for much of the day and into

the bulk of Thursday as an upper level low moves eastward through

the area. Models diverge again after that as the ECMWF keeps a

troughy pattern over the Pac NW while the GFS ushers in a pretty

steep ridge from over the Pacific. Fortunately...no matter which

model is right regarding the upper level systems...precip and what

have you...the consensus is that snow levels will climb

throughout the long term period...getting up to the 3000-4000 ft

range by Thursday/Friday and as such any precip from Wednesday on

will be liquid. Should this remain consistent in future runs...may

finally be able to put the specter of this winter in the rear

view mirror. SMR
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Brushwork
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PostFri Feb 22, 2019 8:26 pm 
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Well, it's still winter around Northbend and upper Tiger.   I'm liking it, but I don't see it changing in the short term.

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When I grow up I wanna play.
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rossb
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PostSat Feb 23, 2019 8:34 am 
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The point is that the previous long term forecast was wrong. You predicted that around now we would see temperatures well above normal. Instead, we will continue to see temperatures below normal.

At some point though, we will see temperatures close to normal. Wow, crazy!

I'm sorry, but your bold prediction was simply wrong. Just imagine if it really was 55 degrees out today, a couple degrees above normal. You would rightly be trumpeting your bold prediction. It happened a couple days early, but you were right.

Except that didn't happen. It continued cold. It will still be cold past the date you said we were supposed to have "temperatures well above normal". The problem is that long term forecasting is ridiculously unreliable. You might as well consult a groundhog.
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BigBrunyon
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PostSat Feb 23, 2019 11:54 am 
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Soon enough it'll be time to COMPETE on those hot, steep, dusty slopes. Seriously GAIN on hot days isn't for the weak!!!

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i ALWAYS camp at the upper lake!
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gb
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PostSat Feb 23, 2019 12:53 pm 
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rossb wrote:
The point is that the previous long term forecast was wrong. You predicted that around now we would see temperatures well above normal. Instead, we will continue to see temperatures below normal.

At some point though, we will see temperatures close to normal. Wow, crazy!

I'm sorry, but your bold prediction was simply wrong. Just imagine if it really was 55 degrees out today, a couple degrees above normal. You would rightly be trumpeting your bold prediction. It happened a couple days early, but you were right.

Except that didn't happen. It continued cold. It will still be cold past the date you said we were supposed to have "temperatures well above normal". The problem is that long term forecasting is ridiculously unreliable. You might as well consult a groundhog.

Not a very intelligent attempt at one upsmanship. What is wrong with you? You are confusing ego with interest. Perhaps you have none of the latter.

I forecast what was in the long-term models and what showed up for several days. Even now, forecasting models show temperatures at 5000' of -12C within 50 to 100 miles of temperatures at the same elevation of +8C between Astoria and Salem on several days. It remains not cut and dried and the forecasting models you are assailing continue having trouble dealing with what would be, if it continues as the newest models show, north of Salem an undoubtedly historically long period of pretty cold weather. Through February 22nd at WFO Sandpoint and including 4 warm days at the beginning of February the average temperature has been 36F with an all-time record low February temperature of 35.6 (in the discussion a few days ago). No wonder the models are having trouble with this forecast and the more so when a subtropical jet undercuts the ridge in just a few days.
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BigBrunyon
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PostSat Feb 23, 2019 1:06 pm 
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I just want to know if its gonna snow next couple uh days

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i ALWAYS camp at the upper lake!
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gb
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PostSat Feb 23, 2019 1:17 pm 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
I just want to know if its gonna snow next couple uh days

The forecasters don't currently think so as of 10 AM. In as much as the U of W MM5 and other models are inconsistent, the best current bets are to continue to read the NWS Seattle Forecast Discussion and watch Satellite imagery for even shorter term.

If you are going to the mountains, use NWAC, NWAC telemetry and Park and ski area webcams.
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moonspots
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PostMon Feb 25, 2019 3:21 pm 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
I just want to know if its gonna snow next couple uh days

Go south...

I had not been paying much attention to the PNW weather until my brother called this morning.

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"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology
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Kim Brown
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PostMon Feb 25, 2019 4:34 pm 
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Arguing about weather forecasts.  embarassedlaugh.gif

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" I'm really happy about this! I have very strong good and horrible memories up there."  oldgranola, NWHs outdoors advocate.
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BigBrunyon
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PostMon Feb 25, 2019 8:36 pm 
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Its probably on its way up here!!! And likely increasing in speed and intensity!

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i ALWAYS camp at the upper lake!
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