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moonspots
Happy Curmudgeon



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Happy Curmudgeon
PostWed Feb 27, 2019 8:19 am 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
Its probably on its way up here!!! And likely increasing in speed and intensity!

Well, let's hope not. Here's a video from someone who lives in/near Oakridge, OR:

Yow!

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"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology
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Foist
Sultan of Sweat



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Sultan of Sweat
PostThu Feb 28, 2019 2:14 pm 
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The bottom line, gb, is that no matter how much you pore over the forecasting models and no matter how much technical jargon you know, your ability -- and any forecaster's ability -- to forecast beyond 5 days out is no better than the historical average.  Indeed, all they typically predict is a return to something closer to average.   And they are wrong about how often you would expect if you were just rolling dice.  The empirical evidence has proved this again and again.  I simply don't understand why people waste their time with these long-term forecasts.
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Backpacker Joe
NWH Joe-Bob



Joined: 16 Dec 2001
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NWH Joe-Bob
PostThu Feb 28, 2019 2:47 pm 
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Why is it NOBODY remembers all the so called scientists during the 70's predicting the coming ice age?  Or that everyone will be dead by the year 2000 because we all will have starved to death!  Come on people, all of this climate talk is totally based on computer models created by MAN GUESSING on what happened before ANYBODY any idea what the Earth was going through.

18 spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970, expect more this year!

18 wrong apocalyptic predictions of the 70's

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"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."

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Foist
Sultan of Sweat



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Sultan of Sweat
PostThu Feb 28, 2019 2:50 pm 
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For the record, I was talking about long-term forecasting of weather patterns (over weeks or months), not analysis of broader climate trends.
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gb
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PostThu Feb 28, 2019 3:19 pm 
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Backpacker Joe wrote:
Why is it NOBODY remembers all the so called scientists during the 70's predicting the coming ice age?  Or that everyone will be dead by the year 2000 because we all will have starved to death!  Come on people, all of this climate talk is totally based on computer models created by MAN GUESSING on what happened before ANYBODY any idea what the Earth was going through.

18 spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970, expect more this year!

18 wrong apocalyptic predictions of the 70's

Who the he*l is Mark something Perry besides and economist?
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gb
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PostThu Feb 28, 2019 3:45 pm 
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Foist wrote:
The bottom line, gb, is that no matter how much you pore over the forecasting models and no matter how much technical jargon you know, your ability -- and any forecaster's ability -- to forecast beyond 5 days out is no better than the historical average.  Indeed, all they typically predict is a return to something closer to average.   And they are wrong about how often you would expect if you were just rolling dice.  The empirical evidence has proved this again and again.  I simply don't understand why people waste their time with these long-term forecasts.

Want to bet it won't be much below normal temperatures across the Dakotas through the Great Lakes March 6 through 10th?

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Foist
Sultan of Sweat



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Sultan of Sweat
PostThu Feb 28, 2019 3:50 pm 
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I don't understand your question.  What is the bet?
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gb
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PostThu Feb 28, 2019 3:52 pm 
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The Pacific Northwest now, and lately, and through about mid-March is a much tougher forecast with a highly unusual winter jet stream, the influence of the Southern branch of the jet stream, and the tendency for cut-off lows directly off our coast. Nonetheless, it now looks that a ridge of high pressure will have an effect here after about March 8th for a few days. The amplified ridge could end up being flatter........but should dominate the intermountain basin north of Central Arizona and Nevada.

But I hope, Foist, you will take my bet on the Central Plains/Great Lakes forecast 10 days out.
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gb
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PostThu Feb 28, 2019 3:53 pm 
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Foist wrote:
I don't understand your question.  What is the bet?

Can't read the post above yours before replying, maybe that explains it:
Quote:
Want to bet it won't be much below normal temperatures across the Dakotas through the Great Lakes March 6 through 10th?
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Foist
Sultan of Sweat



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Sultan of Sweat
PostThu Feb 28, 2019 3:54 pm 
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I still don't understand what I'm betting.  So I am betting that the temperatures will be below average all 5 days?  Most of those days?  Below average by a certain amount?
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gb
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PostThu Feb 28, 2019 3:58 pm 
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Foist wrote:
I still don't understand what I'm betting.

You are betting that the forecast for March 6-10 of much below normal temperatures in the Upper Great Plains and Great Lakes cannot, as you said be forecast, because it is ten days out. You said beyond 5 days it is just a statistical impossibility to forecast.

Remember saying this a few minutes ago:
Quote:
The bottom line, gb, is that no matter how much you pore over the forecasting models and no matter how much technical jargon you know, your ability -- and any forecaster's ability -- to forecast beyond 5 days out is no better than the historical average.

Personally, I would bet on this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
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Foist
Sultan of Sweat



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Sultan of Sweat
PostThu Feb 28, 2019 4:05 pm 
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I mean, it could happen.  I'm not saying it's impossible for that forecast to turn out to be correct.  I'm just not saying it's any more likely to have below average temperatures than usual.  You don't seem to have a firm grasp of risk and probabilities.

If you are asking me if I would wager even money that the average high temperature in Cleveland for March 6-10 will be higher than 5 degrees below normal, then yes, absolutely I would take that bet.
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gb
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PostThu Feb 28, 2019 4:10 pm 
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A chicken could fall out of the sky and hit you on the head, but I'd bet that won't happen.

I see you have changed your goalposts, now instead of saying that it won't be below normal temperatures in Cleveland, it has to be more than 5 degrees below normal. Where did you come up with that? Why not say I'd bet it just won't be below normal. According to you there is a 50-50 chance of that. But not according to forecast models - they put the odds at 80-90% for below normal.
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Foist
Sultan of Sweat



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Sultan of Sweat
PostThu Feb 28, 2019 4:20 pm 
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Yes, I still believe that there is a 50/50 chance that temperatures will be below normal.  But you said "much" below normal, hence the 5-degree spread.  Now you are just saying below normal, instead of much below normal, but saying that the odds are very great (80 to 90 percent).  OK, so then let me rephrase -- I would happily take 8 to 1 odds against the temperature being above normal.  Heck, I would take 4 to 1 odds.  I mean, are you really saying you would bet me 80 bucks against 10 bucks that the temps will be below average for those days?   Man, I wish gambling were legal in Washington...
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rossb
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PostSat Mar 02, 2019 9:19 am 
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I think this is a great example of how unreliable long term forecasts are, and how important it is to not place too much faith in them. Meteorologists know this, which is why no professional would make the following statement:

gb wrote:
This amazing stretch of cool to cold weather finally looks like it will end around February 26th and then all the more so by March 2nd or so with temperatures going well above normal for at least several days. The cold weather will be replaced by warmer air and the promise of one or more of my other all-time favorite things, another blooming Pineapple Express.

What is striking is not the forecast itself, or even how wrong it was, but the confidence with which it was stated. Not "there is a good chance" of warm weather or wet weather, but that it was going to happen. We were gong to have temperatures well above normal by now, and the promise of a Pineapple Express. This didn't happen. Or rather, I feel confident enough to boldly claim that it won't happen. The period you mentioned ends tomorrow (so technically there is still a chance) but I know enough about the short term forecast to proclaim -- with similar confidence -- that your forecast will be a bust.

Not just by a little bit, either. It is striking how wrong your forecast was. You predicted much warmer and wetter than average temperatures, but it has been much colder and drier of late. Your prediction could not have been more wrong. A random forecast would have been more accurate. You called for one extreme and we had the other. Obviously some of this was bad luck, but it is still striking how bad the prediction was.

What bothers me about such predictions is that they imply that weather forecasting in general is just as bad. That simply isn't the case. Short term forecasts are remarkably accurate. Short term forecasts combined with a reading of the forecast discussions are extremely accurate. If you read a forecast and the NWS forecaster says all the models agree (i. e. there is no issues with the forecast) then you can pretty much bank on it. That is why I feel confident that tomorrow's weather will not be warmer or wetter than that typically found on March 2.

Let me get specific here. The forecast for Seattle is for a high of 43 tomorrow, with no rain. Average high for Seattle on March 1st is 53 degrees. Above average is a judgement call, but I will add only a couple degrees, and call it 55. Therefore, I will make the bold claim that we will not have temperatures above 55 tomorrow. I would not have made that prediction a month ago, but based on the forecasting, I'm ready to make that prediction. I would even give you ten to one odds that we won't crack 55 tomorrow. I would bet $100 to your $10 that we won't hit 55 degrees. That is how confident I am in the short term forecast, and this is typical.

Of course I could be wrong. But if I made similar bets a dozen times, I would probably end up with 20 bucks in my pocket. Forecasts of this sort are that accurate. Not 99 times out of a 100, but somewhere around 95 out of a 100.

But that simply isn't the case with long term forecasts. Do that with long term forecasts a dozen times and you are likely to be in whole hundreds of dollars.

I'm not trying to pick on you for your prediction. If you want to put a lot of faith in long term forecasts, or where you think the stock market will be in a year, be my guest. But it bothers me when it gives the impression that forecasting in general is inaccurate, when it is only long term forecasting that is.
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