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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostSat May 04, 2019 10:14 am 
Sculpin wrote:
Well put! Here is Cliff Mass' essay on exactly that topic: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/09/what-kind-of-weather-pattern-produces.html
When it comes to fires and climate change, Cliff Mass sees his job as to persuade, not to educate.

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joker
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PostSat May 04, 2019 12:13 pm 
Cyclopath wrote:
Sculpin wrote:
Well put! Here is Cliff Mass' essay on exactly that topic: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/09/what-kind-of-weather-pattern-produces.html
When it comes to fires and climate change, Cliff Mass sees his job as to persuade, not to educate.
Yeah, close to a month ago I saw folks posting a blog of his wherein he was apparently predicting we'd catch up on snowpack during the month of April. I think the fact that he nailed the urban snowmaggedon in February had some folks viewing him as infallible. NOT

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gb
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PostSat May 04, 2019 4:55 pm 
I personally think we are sc*%ed. The snowpack is poor and will be gone very soon east of the Cascades and the weather pattern that gave us the cold weather in February/early March is still persisting or repeating. Upper airflow out of Northern Canada then down along the coast and into California. Really no moisture here and even in California it is just sporadic. In winter this flow brought us modified arctic air but low level cold air in Canada is long gone and this is a predominantly dry pattern. It likely won't be long before it gets hot - at least much warmer than normal for spring. So, we've got the dry and all we will need is a cut-off low to migrate in the absence of strong steering into the Pacific NW. That will give us the fire starters. March was the 2nd driest on record and April was also very dry. It probably only snowed 4-5' in the Cascades in those two months. Despite rather normal April temperatures and cool the last ten days, the snowpack ranges from 55-75% of normal and is much lower at low elevations. Realize that snowfall in the range of 400-600" is normal in the Cascades (west slopes).

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gb
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PostSun May 05, 2019 7:16 am 
Don't expect help from British Columbia either. I spoke to Andy MacKinnon briefly at a lecture he gave last night at the Mountaineers. My question: I would imagine BC has been much drier than normal as well? MacKinnon: Very much so (or something like that). How far north does that problem extend? He mentioned Bella Coola, and then said he had spent March on Haida Gwai and that in that month, the apex of North American precipitation received just 2cm of rain. He said it was so dry that the Salal was dying. He went to say that he understood there had been a few rains there recently but nothing like normal. I asked about Kluane. He said immediately that for an extended period Telegraph Creek in extreme northern BC had set daily temperature records on average by about +2.5C per day and went on to say when temperature records are set it is usually like a tenth or two of a degree. "But +2.5 degrees, and that is Celsius....." Although it is hard to know about fires in the Coast Mountains because fire start sources are rare, east of the Coast Range it is typically a very different story.

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Cyclopath
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PostSun May 05, 2019 4:53 pm 
I would guess there's about 3-4 inches on the ground near Washington Pass. Seems low for this time of year.

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shane w
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PostSun May 05, 2019 8:56 pm 
Any pics? That seems super low.

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Cyclopath
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PostMon May 06, 2019 12:06 pm 
I do have pics, but they don't show how much snow you'll find there. I'm a road cyclist, I was in the Methow this weekend to support a friend in the Sunflower Trail Marathon. We didn't hike this weekend. My photos are from the road, and there's more snow on the sides of the road than anywhere else, remnants of plowing. Looking at the ground beyond that, there's very little snow left. Probably more in the woods. I just posted a TR, titled Washington Pass.

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drm
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PostMon May 06, 2019 12:26 pm 
There is a big difference between high altitude smoke affecting your views and breathing low altitude smoke. Smoke from fairly distant fires seems to be up high in the atmosphere, only close fires tend to be really smoky at ground level. Of course the clearest weather is best but lack of good views will never keep me indoors and at home. I might choose a different route, but if at all possible I will be out there. The other thing is that dry only leads to fires, in most cases, if there is lightening. People start them sometimes of course, but we've had a number of very dry years around here on Mts Hood and Adams with no fires because there was a lack of thunderstorms.

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FiresideChats
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PostTue May 07, 2019 11:43 pm 
Well, let's take a look at WA Snotel: Beaver Pass: ~60% snowpack. The story: very dry since mid March. Thunder Basin: ~45% snowpack. The story: again, drop after mid-March, acceleration in Mid-April Lyman Lake: ~60% snowpack. The story: lower precipitation starts sharply at the end on January. Interesting. Stevens Pass: ~55% snowpack. The story: dry from mid February to mid April Corral Pass: ~85% snowpack. The story: Above average snowpack until the last few weeks, then a sharp decline. Paradise: ~90% snowpack. The story: slightly below-average water year. Potato Hill: ~110% snowpack. The story: Average and then snowmaggen at the end of January into Feb. Average precipitation, above-average snowfall.

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RichP
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PostWed May 08, 2019 7:37 am 
We had the first fire of the season start in my area yesterday. It quickly grew to over 300 acres in windy conditions. It started in an "industrial logging area." The cause is yet unknown but under investigation. http://dnews.com/local/wildfire-scorches-acres-north-of-harvard-continues-to-burn/article_b08702a6-0435-57fb-b7b5-ff39422c924f.html

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MtnGoat
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PostWed May 08, 2019 4:53 pm 
I submit the fact that...correlation is not causation.

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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gb
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PostThu May 09, 2019 6:32 pm 
MtnGoat wrote:
I submit the fact that...correlation is not causation.
I submit the fact that that is an interesting conversation piece, but entirely irrelevant to the topic.

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Backpacker Joe
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PostThu May 09, 2019 7:02 pm 
I spoke with a ranger at the station in Cle Elum today. She told me the predictions are for fires along the Western United States coast line this summer.

"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide." — Abraham Lincoln
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grannyhiker
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PostThu May 09, 2019 7:28 pm 
We are under a Red Flag Warning here in NW Oregon, only 9 days into May!

May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view.--E.Abbey
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Jordan
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PostWed May 15, 2019 12:45 am 
Its only been two summers now that smoke has had an effect on the west side of the mountains. With the summer before last being not too bad. Last summer was bad, I'll give you that, but it does not mean we are headed for another like it. There will always be wildfires, just depends on which way the wind is blowing. I'll be hiking in August. Stay indoors if you like, more privacy for me on the trail.

none
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