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joker
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PostWed May 15, 2019 10:05 am 
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I you proceed to the summary of that  chapter, you will see:

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In sum, estimates of the aggregate economic impact of climate change are relatively small but with a large downside risk. Estimates of the incremental damage per tonne of CO2 emitted vary by two orders of magnitude, with the assumed discount rate the main driver of the differences between estimates. The literature on the impact of climate and climate change on economic growth and development has yet to reach firm conclusions. There is agreement that climate change would slow economic growth, by a little according to some studies and by a lot according to other studies. Different economies will be affected differently. Some studies suggest that climate change may trap more people in poverty.

The summary goes on to enumerate the multiple and huge sectors in which very little substantive and detailed research has  actually been done on future impacts  of CC, and this is a driver of the huge variance and uncertainty in estimates of economic impact. In many areas of human activity where a "huge downside risk" is in play, people buy insurance, rather than sticking their collective heads in the sand.
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Anne Elk
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PostWed May 15, 2019 10:12 am 
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And now for something completely different! (At least in terms of artistic rendering.) 

A Timeline of Earth's Average Temperature
  chickenleg.gif

I forget how I found that 'toon.  Might have even been on here somewhere. Keep meaning to spend some time on this thread picking out the good stuff; I know there's some in here, have seen a few good discussion moments.  But skimming thru 600+ pages of mostly nonsubstantive arguing, whew!  hockeygrin.gif  Is this the "record" thread for length?

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thunderhead
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PostWed May 15, 2019 10:15 am 
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Forcing society to adopt wind and solar in large percentages before they are ready in the near future will almost certainly cause more damage than global warming.

Over longer timeframes, this switches to global warming being worse.
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RandyHiker
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PostWed May 15, 2019 10:43 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
Forcing society to adopt wind and solar in large percentages before they are ready in the near future will almost certainly cause more damage than global warming.

Over longer timeframes, this switches to global warming being worse.

Sort of like a morbidly obese person to losing weight is going to cause discomfort in the short term, but result in better health in the long term.  Is waiting until after a heart attack has occurred a better approach than taking steps now?    The longer it is until corrective action is taken -- the more damage. 

Many people only find the motivation to make changes when the harm is obvious and immediate -- and then there are those that go to Burger King for a bacon burger right after being released from the hospital after bypass surgery.
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MtnGoat
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PostWed May 15, 2019 10:46 am 
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It is better to wait when the corrective action causes more harm than it does good. Such is the case with sporadic, boutique sources like wind and solar.

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RandyHiker
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PostWed May 15, 2019 11:16 am 
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MtnGoat wrote:
It is better to wait

I figured you were in the "Bacon Burger" camp.
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Parked Out
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PostWed May 15, 2019 11:22 am 
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Anne Elk wrote:
And now for something completely different! (At least in terms of artistic rendering.)    

A Timeline of Earth's Average Temperature
 

I think the problem with this graphic is that it splices very high-resolution temperature data onto very low-resolution data, giving the appearance of a spike in modern times, when actually there may have been many similar spikes in the past that have been smoothed out due to the low resolution of whatever temperature proxies the graph is based upon.  So I think it's misleading as xkcd presents it.

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MtnGoat
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PostWed May 15, 2019 11:24 am 
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RandyHiker wrote:
MtnGoat wrote:
It is better to wait

I figured you were in the "Bacon Burger" camp.

No, I'm in the don't make it worse because of 'do something' camp. Even if you're correct about CO2 causation, then making it worse with systems like this is like double bacon burgers when you're already bitching about one.

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MtnGoat
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PostWed May 15, 2019 11:26 am 
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Parked Out wrote:
I think the problem with this graphic is that it splices very high-resolution temperature data onto very low-resolution data, giving the appearance of a spike in modern times, when actually there may have been many similar spikes in the past that have been smoothed out due to the low resolution of whatever temperature proxies the graph is based upon.  So I think it's misleading as xkcd presents it.

It's at odds with most reconstructions anyway, it shows lower past warming for less time. Most reconstructions have temps higher for longer. The experiment has already been run, the critters, and us, still here.

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Parked Out
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PostWed May 15, 2019 8:18 pm 
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joker wrote:
The summary goes on to enumerate the multiple and huge sectors in which very little substantive and detailed research has actually been done on future impacts of CC, and this is a driver of the huge variance and uncertainty in estimates of economic impact.

Then what's the rationale for assuming catastrophe?

joker wrote:
In many areas of human activity where a "huge downside risk" is in play, people buy insurance, rather than sticking their collective heads in the sand.

Yes, and according to the catastrophists "buying insurance" in this case means upending our economy or at the very least wasting trillions of dollars on solutions that will likely have little if any effect on climate change.  Like Bill Gates has commented recently, the biggest impediment to action on climate is people who think real action is easy.  Where's the big drop in air travel among climate activists?  Even the 'easy' stuff people won't do.  Switching the US power sector over to nuclear would be relatively easy to do but good luck getting the Sierra Club or the NRDC or the members of your local climate action group to support it.  And so apparently the "huge downside risk" isn't quite as ominous as we've been told.

The ones with their heads in the sand these days are those who fixate on climate while ignoring the multitude of much more immediate and tangible problems the world is facing.

World's most important problems
World's most important problems

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joker
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PostWed May 15, 2019 11:24 pm 
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It's not an either  or (either this or other  problems). But of course  this  isn't a thread about those other  problem areas.

Yes, I embrace investing in  a new generation  of  nuclear plants. Time to suck that  one up IMO. And yes, I fly less than  I used to - it has to be a somewhat  exceptional reason to get me doing it now. But of course baking a reasonable  estimate of the  "social cost  of carbon" into its emission would naturally reduce demand for emission causing  purchases and put alternatives on  a more equal footing (once expected societal costs are accounted for). And investing heavily into  research  into both mitigation and adaptation technologies  and strategies is not  something any of us (except perhaps  the  few folks  on  Bill Gates' level) is going to do as an  individual. Insurance.
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drm
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PostThu May 16, 2019 10:17 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
Forcing society to adopt wind and solar in large percentages before they are ready . . .

If they truly are not ready as we get there, the mandates will get rolled back. We have seen this with other mandates in the past. But so far, all the disaster predictions about increasing the share of wind and solar have not come to pass. And with storage options become more practical, I would not expect us to hit a wall any time real soon. In the areas where I live, California's mandates have been an godsend for economically struggling rural areas.

In in fact you are right about the threat of climate change, then getting off fossil fuels sooner will just mean nobody will give a damn about the Middle East any more. Except the people who live there, but you get the point.
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MtnGoat
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PostThu May 16, 2019 10:24 am 
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Rolled back after the costs, after the damage, after millions of innocent people's resources are pissed away, by force...for *nothing*.

We need not give a damn about the middle East anyway. Problem already solved.
The United States is now the largest global crude oil producer

stop dragging the goalposts around

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RandyHiker
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PostThu May 16, 2019 12:21 pm 
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MtnGoat wrote:
We need not give a damn about the middle East anyway. Problem already solved.

Cool when do we get to stop spending trillions of dollars on military adventures in the middle east done to ensure the free flow of crude oil to world markets?
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MtnGoat
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PostThu May 16, 2019 1:30 pm 
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Any time you like. I'm down with that 100%.

Cut *all* subsidies as well, on *all* sides. 'this we deserve them cuz they got them' tit for tat BS needs to cease, by ending them.

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