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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:09 am
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I had looked yesterday out to the 22nd or so and was surprised how much cool, wet weather seemed to dominate the period (as in earlier runs warmer weather tended to dominate). Fair weather periods looked relatively short and infrequent. But the GFS I look at has in the past couple of months generally overstated warmer periods farther out and at the same time has tended to overstate the significance of periods of wet weather.
Nonetheless, here is the NWS Discussion this morning:
Quote: | .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Extended models in good
agreement with the upper level low moving east and weakening
Tuesday night. Weak upper level ridge moving over the area
Wednesday will be in a race with a weak shortwave moving over the
top of the ridge in the afternoon to see which one will prevail.
00z models squeezing out a couple hundredths with the shortwave
so will have to put some slight chance pops in the forecast for
Wednesday afternoon. Model consistency comes to an end Thursday
with the GFS bringing a front through the area Thursday night
while the ECMWF leaves the front offshore until Friday morning.
Ensembles from both models not much help with little variation
from the operational runs. Will only have pops on the coast for
Thursday but with the system approaching will word the cloud cover
as partly sunny for the interior. Models in better agreement with
yet another system for Saturday moving down from the northwest.
End of the extended run starting to look more and more like fall.
Most of the record highs for the latter half of September in
Seattle are in the 80s ( with one day in the 70s ). If the model
trends continue the 81 on September 3rd could be the last day in
the 80s for Seattle this year. Felton |
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
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Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:55 am
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And yet there is a hot Blob of water in the Pacific like we had in 2015. I wonder if the models include that factor. But maybe that's longer term that what you quoted. The 2015 marine heat wave was much blamed for that years' almost nonexistent winter.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:26 am
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drm wrote: | And yet there is a hot Blob of water in the Pacific like we had in 2015. I wonder if the models include that factor. But maybe that's longer term that what you quoted. The 2015 marine heat wave was much blamed for that years' almost nonexistent winter. |
Maybe that blob of warm water is why models in the extended period are consistently over forecasting the return of much above normal temperatures, which is really not happening when you finally get to that time frame. They have also for several months over forecast wet weather late in the forecast period, and so far that has not happened, but here we go now.
Two systems, the Sunday system and one near midweek both appear to stall and tap into tropical moisture. The NWS forecaster this morning says that record rainfall is possible Sunday in the area - of course record daily rainfall in September is still not a mid-later fall deluge.
Quote: | Ridge flattening out tonight with a cold front slowly moving
southeast on Saturday. Cold upper level trough behind the front
digging south with the front beginning to tap into some sub
tropical moisture Saturday afternoon. Best chances for rain
Saturday northwest of about a Hoquiam to Bellingham line. Lows
tonight in the 50s. Highs on Saturday in the 60s.
Upper level trough offshore continuing to dig south Saturday night
into Sunday morning with the cold front becoming more north south
oriented and slowing down to a crawl. Front will still be tapping
into some sub tropical moisture forming a weak atmospheric river
aimed at Western Washington. Front moving south of the area
late Sunday. There is a chance for record rainfall amounts on
Sunday ( some records Seattle 0.69 inches set in 1959, Olympia
1.00 inches set in 1955, Hoquiam 0.91 inches set in 1997 and
Quillayute 1.10 inches set in 2002 ). Lows Saturday night in the
mid and upper 50s. Highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Models in good agreement
Monday with the upper level trough moving inland. Jet stream well
south into Northern California but with the trough overhead will
have to keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast. Another
system moving into the area from the northwest arriving on
Tuesday. Have increased the pops to likely or higher followed by
yet another cool upper level trough with the jet south of Western
Washington Wednesday keeping showers in the forecast. Trough
shifting inland on Thursday. 00z model runs a little wetter than
previous runs on Thursday. For now will keep the forecast dry but
if the model trends continue look for a chance of showers to be
added to the forecast on Thursday. Felton |
If the models bear fruit, freezing levels until about the 24th or 25th don't look to get out of the 7000' to 9000' range here hardly at all with mediocre weather at best. Beyond that it again forecasts a return to above normal temperatures. But?
In that time frame and through the end of the month things really get weird with a super cold wave transiting along and just north of the border. If that bears fruit, the freezing level could drop to sea level in those areas from about the Great lakes and eastward - in September?
In the next week to ten days one might be able to have a decent trip in Wyoming (or Colorado) otherwise, no so much. California doesn't look very good.
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John Morrow Member
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 Posts: 1526 | TRs | Pics Location: Roslyn |
"atmospheric river"
“Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?”-Mary Oliver
“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom.”
― MLK Jr.
“Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?”-Mary Oliver
“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom.”
― MLK Jr.
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Backpacker Joe Blind Hiker
Joined: 16 Dec 2001 Posts: 23956 | TRs | Pics Location: Cle Elum |
This has been the coolest summer since I moved to Cle Elum Ten years ago. Go climate change............
"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."
— Abraham Lincoln
"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."
— Abraham Lincoln
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Schenk Off Leash Man
Joined: 16 Apr 2012 Posts: 2372 | TRs | Pics Location: Traveling, with the bear, to the other side of the Mountain |
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Schenk
Off Leash Man
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:31 am
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Well there you go: As goes Cle Elum, so goes the entire Earth.
Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
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JonnyQuest Member
Joined: 10 Dec 2013 Posts: 593 | TRs | Pics
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Wait, I thought my hot flashes last night were indicative of massive global warming!
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BigBrunyon Member
Joined: 19 Mar 2015 Posts: 1456 | TRs | Pics Location: the fitness gyms!! |
Backpacker Joe wrote: | This has been the coolest summer since I moved to Cle Elum Ten years ago. Go climate change............ |
The temp has raised about 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 6am this morning!!! It's now about noon. In a serious panic!! Global warming is hitting!! No time to even do the math!! 5 degrees every 6 hours!? Gon' be dead in no time!!!
Weird how our logic is the same but experiences differ! Maybe the weather isn't the same everywhere on earth
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MtnGoat Member
Joined: 17 Dec 2001 Posts: 11992 | TRs | Pics Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:58 am
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BigBrunyon wrote: | The temp has raised about 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 6am this morning!!! It's now about noon. In a serious panic!! Global warming is hitting!! No time to even do the math!! 5 degrees every 6 hours!? Gon' be dead in no time!!!
Weird how our logic is the same but experiences differ! Maybe the weather isn't the same everywhere on earth |
If current trends continue....
It's an emergency! No time to question !
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Kim Brown Member
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 Posts: 6899 | TRs | Pics
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Stop mocking, and return to the subject.
"..living on the east side of the Sierra world be ideal - except for harsher winters and the chance of apocalyptic fires burning the whole area."
Bosterson, NWHiker's marketing expert
"..living on the east side of the Sierra world be ideal - except for harsher winters and the chance of apocalyptic fires burning the whole area."
Bosterson, NWHiker's marketing expert
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Cyclopath Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012 Posts: 7726 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:43 pm
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I guess the forum rules don't apply to deniers.
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MtnGoat Member
Joined: 17 Dec 2001 Posts: 11992 | TRs | Pics Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:18 pm
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It's true, I deny 2+2=5. Denial of non truths is a positive.
As we can see, forum rules don't apply to ad hominims.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Tom Admin
Joined: 15 Dec 2001 Posts: 17851 | TRs | Pics
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Tom
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:22 pm
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Yeah, we get it, AGW is a non-truth. Subject is weather, not AGW.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:38 pm
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BigBrunyon wrote: | Backpacker Joe wrote: | This has been the coolest summer since I moved to Cle Elum Ten years ago. Go climate change............ |
The temp has raised about 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 6am this morning!!! It's now about noon. In a serious panic!! Global warming is hitting!! No time to even do the math!! 5 degrees every 6 hours!? Gon' be dead in no time!!!
Weird how our logic is the same but experiences differ! Maybe the weather isn't the same everywhere on earth |
Apparently you don't go outdoors. This thread is about the possibilities for trip planning and what it looks like. You run off in some bizarre tangent. But it is understandable you don't pay attention to weather models or forecasts by NWS forecasters - your ignorance here is obvious.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:41 pm
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MtnGoat wrote: | It's true, 2+2=5. Denial of non truths is a positive.
As we can see, forum rules don't apply to ad hominims. |
What do you see in current weather models, goat? With your math above that 2+2 =5 I am not surprised you are clueless.
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