Forum Index > Stewardship > Got an AR? In October nearly all of our precipitation was from AR events
Previous :: Next Topic  
Author Message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5235 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostTue Nov 26, 2019 5:20 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
This study suggests that in the future West Coast climate, less precipitation will come from the Aleutian Low and more from Atmospheric River events, particularly towards California. It goes a long ways towards demonstrating why West Coast snowpacks will move up in elevation. Last year provided a glimpse at this and the variability. Remember February - March and how great the winter was until the first week of February in 2019?

Future West Coast AR events and related precipitation

The other big big factor re: precipitation is increased dryness in the SW from drier and stronger La Nina events. The El Nino signal is not yet as obvious.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist



Joined: 07 Sep 2018
Posts: 680 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Anne Elk
  Top

BrontosaurusTheorist
PostWed Nov 27, 2019 2:16 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
This is interesting.  It sounds very similar to the weather shifts I've noticed in western WA over the last 20 years or so ... ie, longer drought periods in the summer with much longer and higher heat waves, and winters where most of the precipitation seems to come in short deluges instead of the drawn out, nearly continuous drizzles with 1 or 2 storms (the holidays seem to attract them).  The annual overall total precipitation may not be significantly different, but the changed precipitation pattern is parching the native plants in the summer, and shrinking the snow pack.

In a related discussion on another thread, I referenced the historical Palmer Drought Indices.  (which seem to be offline at this posting - gov't holiday shutdown?)

--------------
"There are yahoos out there.  Itís why we canít have nice things."  - Tom Mahood
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
thunderhead
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 936 | TRs

thunderhead
  Top

Member
PostMon Dec 02, 2019 2:42 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
In the actual observations over previous years there is no significant change in standard deviation(daily precip) or yearly precip at northwest area precipitation guages.  Thus there is actually no noteworthy change in precipitation intensity occurring.  The frequency of intense storms vs drawn out light precip is about what it always has been.

There is a robust trend of increasing temp of course, converting some precip type from snow to rain.

You can see the data here.

https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C00516
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist



Joined: 07 Sep 2018
Posts: 680 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Anne Elk
  Top

BrontosaurusTheorist
PostMon Dec 02, 2019 7:41 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Thanks for posting the link for accessing datasets, thunderhead.  It will have to wait until I have more time.  The tool isn't intuitive enough for a few minutes' tinkering (at least for me).

I'll concede that my memory of 30+ years of winter precipitation patterns may be faulty. Our summers are definitely drier and hotter these last few years. But if, as you say, the standard deviation(daily precip) and annual precipitation stats from rain gauges are unremarkable, that reinforces my feeling that the Palmer Drought Index is a more useful model for noting climate change impacts, as it takes several other factors into account when determining drought conditions, as explained here.  Every serious NW gardener and botanist has noticed the big changes.

--------------
"There are yahoos out there.  Itís why we canít have nice things."  - Tom Mahood
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
RodF
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Sep 2007
Posts: 2499 | TRs
Location: Sequim WA
RodF
  Top

Member
PostWed Dec 04, 2019 2:48 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
This is a major synthesis of recent advancements linking west coast climate to weather events.  It's a wonderful review for those of us who may not have kept up with all this work.

gb, I'm very grateful to you for mentioning this paper.  Thank you for the heads up!  up.gif


(It also makes me grateful to live in the Northwest, which is relatively sheltered from the impact of climate change compared to the rest of the US, or the world.  But not so grateful to be living in a country which prefers to be ignorant of, or in denial of, reality.  rolleyes.gif  Even the great heatsink of the North Pacific Ocean fails to shield us from that.)

--------------
"of all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt" - John Muir
"the wild is not the opposite of cultivated.  It is the opposite of the captivatedĒ - Vandana Shiva
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
  Display:     All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Forum Index > Stewardship > Got an AR? In October nearly all of our precipitation was from AR events
  Happy Birthday Flash Gordon, raz2sea!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
   Use Disclaimer Powered by phpBB Privacy Policy