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gb
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PostFri Feb 14, 2020 10:07 am 
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[quote="Pahoehoe"]Just bury your heads in the sand and tell yourselves you are more experienced, smarter, stronger, better skiers, and make better decisions than those that die./quote]

Don't have clue who you are referring to here?

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Remember Monica?  Franklin?  The leavenworth guys?  Riley?

The first two were cornice collapses, don't know who "the leavenworth guys" were or who Riley was. But you could look up all of these accidents either at NWAC or at the American Avalanche Association accident reports. People make mistakes; those mistakes may be small and you may get unlucky or they may have been quite obvious - just look at the reports. https://www.nwac.us/accidents/accident-reports/
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RumiDude
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PostFri Feb 14, 2020 10:30 am 
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Remember Jimmy? Walter? Richard? Rebecca?

They, and tens of thousands others like them, are the people that have made good decisions and survived backcountry travel in avalanche terrain.

Like many other recreational pursuits, there are all sorts of hazards and their associated risks involved in backcountry travel in avalanche terrain. But despite the hysteria some propagate, it's NOT Russian roulette. Not even close.

Rumi

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"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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Pahoehoe
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PostFri Feb 14, 2020 12:47 pm 
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Good decisions or luck when the outcome is good.

Bad decisions or luck when the outcome is bad.

The death rate for snow safety/avalanche forecasters would be unacceptable in any other industry.
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Cyclopath
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PostFri Feb 14, 2020 1:13 pm 
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Like underwater welders for example.   hmmm.gif
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catsp
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PostFri Feb 14, 2020 3:16 pm 
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I'm not sure portraying it entirely a matter of "luck" is the most accurate or helpful way to express it. When we are talking about risk, to me that means there is some level of probability that things go sideways no matter how reasonable or careful we are - we don't know when, just that odds are it will, given enough opportunities. Let's say the probability is 1/1000. Are each of say, 426 encounters without the bad thing happening a matter of "good luck," or just the expected result of reasonable risk analysis/decision-making?

Of course, since we don't expect the bad thing to happen the vast majority of times (under these artificial odds), when the 427th encounter results in the bad thing, I have no problem calling that person's misfortune a matter of "bad luck." But not in the sense that this particular person had worse risk analysis/decision-making skills and it finally came home to roost, just that the numbers said that it was going to happen at some point, and it just happened to be that person.
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catsp
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PostFri Feb 14, 2020 3:47 pm 
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RumiDude wrote:
As stated in the piece: "we dont always get good feedback from our decision-making. Its hard to know if we made a good decision or just got away with a bad one."

RandyHiker wrote:
Snow stability analysis is an imperfect art and when people have racked up hundreds of trips without triggering an avalanche they start to tolerate higher degrees of uncertainty. Until they or someone they know closely gets hammered and their risk tolerance gets reset.

Possible example here: Granite Mountain.
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Cyclopath
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PostFri Feb 14, 2020 4:21 pm 
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Anyone have an educated guess about avy potential at the Sauk Mountain trailhead?  It's been a while since I've been up there.  I remember a great view, and a lot of open meadow.
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joker
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PostSat Feb 15, 2020 10:47 am 
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Cyclopath wrote:
Anyone have an educated guess about avy potential at the Sauk Mountain trailhead?  It's been a while since I've been up there.  I remember a great view, and a lot of open meadow.

The parking area itself is on a bit of a point below a rib which may help explain why some trees around it have  survived slides there. However the road approaching it on that final switchback is wide open and directly below a moderately long  and fairly open steep slope. I haven't done the actual avalanche runout math for that bit of road but my quick guess is that it's a risky spot when naturally triggered avalanches  are possible/probable on the very steep west slope above there.
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joker
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PostSat Feb 15, 2020 11:32 am 
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Pahoehoe wrote:
Just bury your heads in the sand and tell yourselves you are more experienced, smarter, stronger, better skiers, and make better decisions than those that die.  Better looking, too!

lol.gif

That's right - don't address any of the actual content presented. Use emotionally charged attacks on others - content free but often keeps the discussion going in those tight little circles! Well done.
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joker
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PostSat Feb 15, 2020 11:39 am 
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Pahoehoe wrote:
The death rate for snow safety/avalanche forecasters would be unacceptable in any other industry.

I'm curious - what is that death rate?
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