Forum Index > Full Moon Saloon > To your/our health (Covid-19 thread)
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Cyclopath
Faster than light



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Cyclopath
Faster than light
PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:00 pm 
MtnGoat wrote:
Tell me again why we are not following the standard procedure for all previous issues like this, which is trace the social chains and isolate only those in the contact circles, and so on?
Because we have 80,000 known cases. What you're suggesting could have worked early on, but at that point official policy was that "you can go to work" if you have COVID-19, and that it will "miraculously" disappear when it gets warm. And now here we are.

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zephyr
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zephyr
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:01 pm 
I wish I was able to embed this video. But here is a link from NBC. This is Louisiana Gov. Edwards saying that if the coronavirus case curve isn’t flattened, New Orleans will exhaust ventilator capacity by April 2 and bedspace by April 7: Edit added. Note: Earlier I had posted a link to NBC Twitter feed of a video news conference from Louisiana Governor Bel Edwards on March 24, 2020. Well, today I noticed that link was no longer working. I have since located a YouTube version of that briefing and I am posting it here. The entire briefing is around 49 minutes and about halfway through the sound fails. However, in my opinion the best part (the part that had been originally posted on Twitter by NBC) is in the very beginning where the governor makes the case that this disease is deadly and that everyone in the state is vulnerable. He emphasizes the need to follow his Stay At Home order and maintain social distancing. Start at minute 4:00 and run until about 17:00 when the sound starts breaking up. Governor Edwards has the cadence of a Southern preacher. His tone and seriousness should communicate well to many citizens in his state--and maybe Mississippi. He states that if the coronavirus case curve isn’t flattened, New Orleans will exhaust ventilator capacity by April 2 and bedspace by April 7: ”This isn’t conjecture. This isn’t some flimsy theory. This isn’t some scare tactic. This is what’s going to happen. Every single person has to take Social Distancing and my Stay At Home order--seriously.” ~z
.

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neek
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:02 pm 
zephyr wrote:
Here's a video on shopping and cleaning groceries.
MtnGoat posted that a few pages back and indeed it's good. Actionable. Not sure if leaving food outside would work too well around here, but I'm setting up the garage as a quarantine area.

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xman_reborn
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:06 pm 
Seattle Times article: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-26-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/ Why are people STILL lining up at Costco? Is there a national shortage for groceries? I have friends across the country saying that this is insane. Is it only is happening in Western Washington? Are we complete idiots here? I think we are. I'm embarrassed.

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zephyr
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:07 pm 
neek wrote:
MtnGoat posted that a few pages back
Thanks for letting me know. I don't see everything on here. wink.gif
neek wrote:
Not sure if leaving food outside would work too well around here, but I'm setting up the garage as a quarantine area.
I know. Right? Man, why didn't we have this sort of information a month or more ago. Geez Louise. Now I am wondering what did I bring in here? huh.gif ~z

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neek
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:21 pm 
xman_reborn wrote:
I have friends across the country saying that this is insane. Is it only is happening in Western Washington? Are we complete idiots here? I think we are. I'm embarrassed.
Stores operate at close to capacity for efficiency reasons (Costco in particular has always been a zoo). Then throughput slows down because of extra precautions. People line up faster than they can be serviced. Study queuing theory. Certainly there was a rush early on, but I imagine by now most people are like me and going shopping way less often than before this all hit. Understanding the situation at the checkout line is important for understanding what could happen when healthcare systems reach capacity, although I do think the media is highlighting some of the worst cases.
zephyr wrote:
Now I am wondering what did I bring in here?
Lots of stuff I got last week went straight into the freezer. Doh.

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BigBrunyon
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PostFri Mar 27, 2020 12:40 am 
Look, it's just one of those things. Is what it is.

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Anne Elk
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PostFri Mar 27, 2020 1:37 am 
xman reborn wrote:
Why are people STILL lining up at Costco? Is there a national shortage for groceries?
When I was at the Shoreline Costco over a week ago, the reason they were lining up outside is that the store was only letting a certain # of people in at once, to prevent overcrowding. It created a less-than-optional situation outside, but I suppose that's better than crowding inside; and the carts help peeps keep their distance (tho' not 6 feet). I still wore a mask while in there, and in line.

"There are yahoos out there. It’s why we can’t have nice things." - Tom Mahood
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altasnob
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PostFri Mar 27, 2020 8:40 am 
Cyclopath wrote:
MtnGoat wrote:
Tell me again why we are not following the standard procedure for all previous issues like this, which is trace the social chains and isolate only those in the contact circles, and so on?
Because we have 80,000 known cases. What you're suggesting could have worked early on, but at that point official policy was that "you can go to work" if you have COVID-19, and that it will "miraculously" disappear when it gets warm. And now here we are.
This has been the most frusterating thing for me. I get that US positive cases are now so high that tracing contacts and quarantining has become futile. But the whole idea of these lock downs is to slow the rate of infection to a point the hospitals can handle the surge. When the rate of infection slows, the lock down will be lifted but the virus will still be prevalent, and people will still be infected. We need to start preparing now to minimize the spread of the virus so we don't need to continue the lock down for the next two years. South Korea is a functioning society despite the virus because they trace contacts and quarantine infected. They use cell phone data and credit card transactions to track and contact people that may have been exposed, and then require them to come in for a test. In the US, our cell phone data can already be used by private companies to track our location. If we are concerned about constitutional privacy concerns, you could set up an opt in system where people voluntarily waive their privacy rights so the government can use their cell phone data and credit card transactions to inform them if they were in the same room with someone COVID-19 positive (like South Korea). Singapore goes one step farther and has a web site where virus positive people's name, address, work address, and every where they have been for the last month is available to the public so that they know if they might have been exposed. This might not work in the US because of HIPAA but I for one would gladly waive my privacy rights for a temporary period in order to prevent having to be locked down for the next two years. Japan has conducted few tests and no attempt to trace and isolate yet has low numbers. Lots of speculation that Japan's numbers are flawed but one major difference between them and us is they wear masks in public (like all the Asian countries who have been able to get a grip on this). There should be a law making mask wearing mandatory in the US (until the situation is under control). I assume I am going to get a bunch of responses saying I rather die than give up my civil liberties. But this is a time of crisis our country hasn't faced in 100 years (or ever). We are in this mess for the next two years and are going to watch our economy crumble while South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tawain, and China go about business as normal and laugh at our ineptitude.

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zephyr
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zephyr
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PostFri Mar 27, 2020 9:36 am 
altasnob wrote:
This has been the most frusterating thing for me. I get that US positive cases are now so high that tracing contacts and quarantining has become futile. But the whole idea of these lock downs is to slow the rate of infection to a point the hospitals can handle the surge.
...
altasnob wrote:
We are in this mess for the next two years and are going to watch our economy crumble while South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tawain, and China go about business as normal and laugh at our ineptitude.
This is great content to consider. I've thinking about these issues too. If I could ask you to please break it up in paragraphs for easier reading if would be most helpful to those of us with not as robust vision. I tend to get lost in large swaths of sentences these days. dizzy.gif Thanks. ~z

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CC
cascade curmudgeon



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cascade curmudgeon
PostFri Mar 27, 2020 10:00 am 
From UW: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Yeah, yeah, I know "we don't want no stinkin models ...falsify....yada yada."

First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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Jumble Jowls
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PostFri Mar 27, 2020 10:25 am 
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Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist



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Anne Elk
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PostFri Mar 27, 2020 10:34 am 
Altasnob wrote:
I assume I am going to get a bunch of responses saying I rather die than give up my civil liberties.
The underlying problem remains the need (and our continued inability) to test widely because of the transmissibility of the virus long before the infected person shows symptoms. Our containment failure is due an inexplicable refusal to use the WHO test when it was offered, and then compounded by our own ineptitude, both technical and bureaucratic: How testing failures allowed coronavirus to sweep the US
Quote:
neither the CDC nor the coronavirus task force chaired by Vice President Mike Pence would say who made the decision to forgo the WHO test and instead begin a protracted process of producing an American test, one that got delayed by manufacturing problems, possible lab contamination and logistical delays. “Please provide an explanation for why the Covid-19 diagnostic test approved by the World Health Organization was not used,” Sen. Patty Murray, the ranking Democrat on the Senate health committee, who represents the hard-hit state of Washington, asked in a 3½-page letter on the testing fiasco to Pence, Health Secretary Alex Azar, CDC director Robert Redfield, and Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn. So far, none has been provided.
This New Yorker article provides the granular details re what went on at the CDC with our own testing screwups: What went wrong with coronavirus testing in the US The solution still seems to be universal testing, but now that the cat is out of the bag, it's not clear we could ever produce the amt of tests needed now.

"There are yahoos out there. It’s why we can’t have nice things." - Tom Mahood
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Bosterson
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PostFri Mar 27, 2020 10:35 am 
zephyr wrote:
Here's a video on shopping and cleaning groceries.
This is pretty intense. My read is this level of anxiety is not warranted for the general public, especially those who are not at high risk of severe complications. CDC: Can the virus be spread through food, including refrigerated or frozen?
Quote:
Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread from person-to-person through respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with food. Before preparing or eating food it is important to always wash your hands with soap and water for 20 seconds for general food safety. Throughout the day wash your hands after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, or going to the bathroom. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from food products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient, refrigerated, or frozen temperatures.
NYT article about grocery shopping
Quote:
The majority of transmission of coronavirus is likely from close contact with an infected person. Viral particles do not survive well on paper or cardboard surfaces. And while the virus lasts longer on hard surfaces, contamination from jars and plastic containers is not a big risk. If it makes you feel better, Dr. Amler said, give them a quick wipe as you unpack. Dr. Winetsky agreed that the risk of contamination from jars, cans or other containers “is infinitesimally small” and that you have to balance risk with anxiety. “I would not do this myself or really recommend it to other people,” he said. “This level of anxiety about sanitation can be harmful in and of itself.”

Go! Take a gun! And a dog! Without a leash! Chop down a tree! Start a fire! Piss wherever you want! Build a cairn! A HUGE ONE! BE A REBEL! YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE! (-bootpathguy)
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cascade curmudgeon



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cascade curmudgeon
PostFri Mar 27, 2020 10:52 am 
First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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