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zephyr
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PostFri Jun 12, 2020 11:28 am 
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There's an article in Barrons about the recent announcement/misstep by the CDC on asymptomatic spreading.  We Ran the CDC. Here’s How to Talk to the Public in a Health Crisis.

Here's a quote, more in the short article linked above:  With just a few words uttered during a media briefing in Geneva on Monday, the World Health Organization’s technical lead for coronavirus response sent a lightning bolt of doubt around the globe as to how transmission might occur during this pandemic.

When Maria Van Kerkhove walked back her statement about asymptomatic transmission a day later, noting that how often people without symptoms spread the disease “is a major unknown,” the damage already had been done.

Communication failures like this, and the muted voice and ignored expertise of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during this pandemic, undermine the institutions we need and can have a dramatic impact on people’s health. Without trust, transparency, and truth, public health officials and government leaders will struggle to inform people and drive behaviors to serve the greater good.

The CDC—an agency we each ran during a public health emergency—is a science-driven organization loaded with dedicated and talented public servants who surely understand the value of communication at a time like this. In both Democratic and Republican administrations, clear and active public health communications have become expected and encouraged—a norm that has served our country well.


~z
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Joey
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PostFri Jun 12, 2020 1:13 pm 
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Below are links to data files I produced that show the number of new COVID19 cases *per day* for each county in the USA.  These are csv files and also include coordinates for each county centroid.  This means the files are easy to import into spreadsheet or GIS software.  The only limitation is that your use must be non-commercial.  This data will be updated each night as the pandemic continues.

The source of the data is a Johns Hopkins University GitHub page at:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

A team at Hopkins collects information from a variety of sources and publishes a daily *cumulative* count of COVID cases for each county.  This data is widely regarded as authoritative.  If you are curious, here are some links where you can learn more about this work.

https://www.esri.com/about/newsroom/podcast/the-science-and-scientist-behind-the-johns-hopkins-coronavirus-dashboard/

https://www.esri.com/arcgis-blog/products/product/public-safety/coronavirus-covid-19-data-available-by-county-from-johns-hopkins-university/

A few weeks ago I decided it would be useful if the Hopkins cumulative count data was converted to show the number of new COVID19 cases per day for each county.  After searching online and failing to find the Hopkins data converted to daily counts, I decided to take on the task of writing code to do that conversion.

That code now runs automatically each night (12:10a.m. pacific time), reads the prior two days worth of data from the Hopkins GitHib site, computes the new cases for yesterday and adds a new column to the csv file for the current month.  Each month a new csv file will start.  The daily count data starts on March 24.  (Prior to March 23 there was a period of time when Hopkins was only reporting state totals.)

Here is a link to the March csv file.  The same naming convention will be followed as new months and years come along.  In addition to this March file, you can also presently download a csv file for April, May and June by changing the month number in the following link.

March csv file:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/disaster/coronavirus/daily_covid_cases/2020_03.csv

Yes, the number of new COVID19 cases in these csv files might be different than the case numbers reported by county health departments.  There are various reasons for any differences.  For example, Hopkins counts both confirmed and probable cases.  Also Hopkins ‘scrapes’ data from state health department websites and that data might lag a day or two behind data on county websites.

You also will sometimes see negative numbers in these csv files.  That might indicate a person who was counted as probable but then removed from the count when a negative test result was returned in a few days.

I hope this data resource will be useful.
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jinx'sboy
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PostFri Jun 12, 2020 1:44 pm 
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Now it looks like bald men might be at higher risk of more severe Covid-19 infection, due to androgen levels.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/11/bald-men-may-be-hit-harder-by-coronavirus-scientists-fear/
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Cyclopath
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PostSun Jun 14, 2020 8:52 pm 
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DOH: New report shows increasing COVID-19 activity, some Eastern Washington counties now comparable to King County at March peak

On Saturday, June 13th the Washington State Department of Health (DOH) released the latest COVID-19 statewide situation report, which shows virus transmission continued to increase in eastern Washington as of the end of May, with a possible uptick in western Washington as well.

DOH said there are still significant differences in transmission from county to county.

According to DOH, the situation in eastern Washington is of greatest concern – particularly in Benton, Franklin, Spokane and Yakima counties. The report estimates cases and deaths in these counties will soon increase substantially if COVID-19 continues to spread at current levels.

In fact, by population, these counties are in a comparable position to King County at its March peak. DOH said these counties may require similar efforts to expand hospital capacity and testing, protect the people at highest risk and increase physical distancing.

“The trends we’re seeing point to the critical importance of actions we can all take, like staying six feet apart and wearing cloth face coverings whenever we’re in public, as well as a need for increased response in these harder-hit areas,” said Dr. Kathy Lofy, state health officer at DOH. “We’re working closely with the Governor’s Office, local officials and partners to identify additional ways to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in these regions. Every single person in our state can and must do their part to help by following public health recommendations.”

Meanwhile in Western Washington, DOH said case counts had been trending flat, but small increases are now being observed. State and local officials will continue to monitor the region carefully to determine whether the slight increase in COVID-19 transmission shown in the report continues to grow.

The situation report findings include possible transmission increases over Memorial Day weekend, but DOH said this does not include increases that may have occurred following recent protests.

The report also includes a new measure called Progress to Zero for each county, which shows how far cases have declined from the peak level of activity. This measure varies considerably across the state, with some counties showing large decreases (like King County) and other counties that have not yet reached a peak number of cases including Yakima, Klickitat, Benton, Franklin, Spokane and Stevens counties.

The most recent estimates of transmission in eastern and western Washington are also available in the state’s risk assessment dashboard. The dashboard measures the same key metrics the Seattle-King County DOH does, but for each Washington State county.

According to the assessment dashboard, King County – currently in modified phase 1.5 – is meeting as many key metric goals as neighboring, populous Pierce and Snohomish counties, which are currently in phase 2. King County is also meeting more key metrics than populous Spokane county, which is in phase 2.

According to the Seattle Times, King County could apply this week to move to phase 2, which would expand some business capacity and relax restrictions on social gatherings.

As of June 12th, King County had reported 8,700 COVID-19 cases – up 56 from the previous day – and 574 deaths – up 3 from the previous day.

The positive COVID-19 test rate for King County is still on the decline, now at 6.4%. At its late March peak, that positive test rate was approximately 14%.

Locally, Snoqualmie has reported on 27 total cases since the outbreak began – with four cases in May and none in June. Snoqualmie’s positive test rate is 5.3%. The City of North Bend (not including unincorporated area) has reported 18 cases – two in May and none in June – and has a 4.4% positive test rate.


https://livingsnoqualmie.com/doh-new-report-shows-increasing-covid-19-activity-some-eastern-washington-counties-now-comparable-to-king-county-at-its-march-peak/
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker



Joined: 21 Jun 2009
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aka friendly hiker
PostMon Jun 15, 2020 10:15 am 
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Here's an interesting graphic on Twitter showing all the states and their current increase or decrease in infection cases.  Very good for a quick look at our state and our neighbors.

Quote:  How is your State doing, #COVID19 -wise? Here's a quick view. Red = ^ing #coronavirus incidence vs blue, declining viral spread. (Red/Blue are not GOP/Dem in this case)  ~z

Note:  As of this morning, that link doesn't seem to work directly.  It DOES work if you right click on it and open in another tab.
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Cyclopath
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PostTue Jun 16, 2020 9:38 am 
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UK experts say the low-dose steroid treatment [Dexamethasone] is a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus.

It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.

BBC
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treeswarper
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Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostTue Jun 16, 2020 6:04 pm 
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Cyclopath wrote:
UK experts say the low-dose steroid treatment [Dexamethasone] is a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus.

It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.

BBC

After reading about the hospital bills that survivors are receiving, I wonder how much this drug costs here in the land of you get what you can pay for.

--------------
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker



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aka friendly hiker
PostTue Jun 16, 2020 8:37 pm 
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treeswarper wrote:
After reading about the hospital bills that survivors are receiving, I wonder how much this drug costs here in the land of you get what you can pay for.

From what I've seen the last couple of days, that medication is relatively inexpensive.  Here's an article in the BBC online about that.

Note:  I had read about this earlier in a different source and didn't see Cyclopath's complete quote.  And you t.w., quoted it as well.  haha   Read that article and see about the costs.  wink.gif

    ~z
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RayD
the griz ate my pass



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the griz ate my pass
PostSat Jun 20, 2020 11:48 am 
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An overview of vaccine development.


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don't believe everything you think
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graywolf
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PostSat Jun 20, 2020 12:42 pm 
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Injectable dexamethasone is very inexpensive.  At least it was.

If the usual price gouging occurs, the price will increase dramatically due to "shortages, demand, etc.", whatever the drug companies can come up with to justify their exorbitant profits.

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altasnob
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PostSat Jun 20, 2020 8:29 pm 
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Iceland has no active corona virus cases. Bars and restaurants are fully open. And they will start allowing international tourists starting July 1. Upon entry you are tested. If negative, proceed on trip. If positive, 14 day quarantine.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/iceland-reopens-coronavirus/index.html
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graywolf
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PostSat Jun 20, 2020 8:55 pm 
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Cyclopath wrote:
UK experts say the low-dose steroid treatment [Dexamethasone] is a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus.

It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.

BBC

Waiting for the peer review to see if this stands up to scrutiny.

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The only easy day was yesterday...
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cdestroyer
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PostSun Jun 21, 2020 7:01 am 
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big uptick in infections here since the reopening began:

The state of Montana listed 32 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, the most in one day since late March and bringing the state’s total to 698 and capping a week in which an uptick of incidents have been reported.

Seven new cases were reported in Gallatin County, five in Yellowstone County, four in Rosebud, three in Carbon, two in Big Horn, Missoula and Toole counties, and one each in Cascade, Custer, Dawson, Glacier, Park, Ravalli and Richland counties.

People between 20-29 years of age account for 18% of all reported COVID-19 cases in Montana. The next most common age group is 50-59 years (17%) and 30-39 years (17%), followed by 60-69 years (15%). The median age for all cases is 44. Fifty percent of cases are between 28-60 years of age, the report stated.

The report noted  five counties have reported widespread community acquired transmission. Officials said 22% of all cases with known transmission information likely acquired the virus in the community; "most of those are in Gallatin and Yellowstone counties. Twenty-one percent of reported cases likely acquired the virus through travel-related exposures. About 29% of cases were contacts to a known case, either within the household or otherwise. Clusters identified 27% of new case reports."


as reported in the great falls tribune
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zephyr
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aka friendly hiker
PostSat Jun 27, 2020 9:20 pm 
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Here's an interesting video clip of workers in Bangladesh making PPE.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1276988927220449280

~z
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker



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aka friendly hiker
PostWed Jul 01, 2020 10:10 am 
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This video has been out since April, but it's the first time I have seen it.  It's a little slow in the beginning.  (Plus the sneezing scene is a little gross.)  The best parts are toward the end when it demonstrates ventilation and dispersal of the micro droplets.   This really makes me want to avoid being in closed spaces with poor ventilation and to avoid close contact conversations without masking.  ~z

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