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Tom
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 1:40 am 
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I don't know if that's the premise or not.  If all ends well, that's fine by me.  The past several years have made me less inclined to just laugh things away.

BTW, Ski, I did a search on sacbee in the database.  I found NO articles appearing anywhere on the site relating to the subject so perhaps you are thinking of something posted on another forum site.
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treeswarper
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 6:38 am 
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I'm not going to do it for you because I'm basically lazy.

Tom, to feel better, look up acres and volume available for logging in the original Northwest Forest Plan--the owl plan.  You should find that the those were never achieved.  Matrix ground was supposed to be fair game for timber harvest.  It hasn't turned out that way.

The last administration increased timber targets, but failed to increase the budget for doing so.  WA state was going to take over some of the work, but I don't know how that turned out.

I'm sure that the last of the ancient old growth will not be liquidated by logging.  It will be hyped up in order to get more donations to the non profit enviro industry.  No threat--no money rolling in.

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altasnob
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 11:24 am 
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The NWFP's 20-year Monitoring Reports (1994-2013): Status and Trends can be found here. I cannot think of a better source of non-partisan, accurate information on the state of PNW National Forests than this report.

One of the goals of the NWFP is to maintain the amount of old growth forest within the NWFP area over the course of 100 years. The 20 year monitoring report found that old growth areas has declined, but not so much that the 100 year goal could not still be achieved. Below is a graph from the report that indicates the amount of old growth each year using three different definitions of "old growth;" late-successional/old-growth (LSOG) and old growth structure index 80 and 200


You can see in the graph that regardless of what definition of old growth one ueses, there has been a reduction of old growth in the the NWFP area over the 20 year period. This loss can be explained by "losses from wildfire (4.2–5.4%), timber harvest (1.2–1.3%), and from insects or other causes (0.7–0.9%)." "The NWFP anticipated continued declines in older forests for the first few decades until the rate of forest succession exceeds the rate of losses." In other words, this slight decline was expected and is not something alarming. Old growth areas are reduced, but they are also increased by not cutting down trees. The goal is to try to reach a stable equilibrium.

"Losses of about 2.5% from wildfire and 2.5% from timber harvesting were expected each decade. Observed losses from wildfire were about what was expected (5% over two decades), but losses from timber harvesting were about one quarter of what was anticipated."

So in other words, yes, there has been a decline in logging in the NWFP area over the last 20 years over what was expected. However, the total loss of old growth was within the target range so there is no reason to increase areas open to timber reduction. And regarding the timber production loss, note that Oregon suffered minimal decline in those 20 years, with most of the loss in Washington and California. Further, the report indicates the decline in timber production is due to a number of factors including a housing market crash, international competition, and more efficient timber technologies. The report says fewer logging and wood manufacturing employees are needed for each million board feet of timber, so less total jobs. However, increased labor productivity led to an increase in average annual real income in timber-related sectors. Therefore, while fewer people are employed in the timber industry, the individuals in that sector are typically better compensated than they were 15 years ago. The overall PNW economy has fared very well in these years so does it really matter that there are less timber jobs today than 20 years ago?
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Ski
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 12:17 pm 
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Tom wrote:
BTW, Ski, I did a search on sacbee in the database.  I found NO articles appearing anywhere on the site relating to the subject so perhaps you are thinking of something posted on another forum site.

It was an old article, Tom. If it's the one catsp tracked down above - 2001. (That sounds about right.)
May have been in another thread (not the $$$$ for lawsuits thread), but it was linked to here somewhere. The only other "forum" sites I am part of focus on vintage tools or lawnmowers.

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treeswarper
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 12:35 pm 
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Altasnob, you really need to get out and walk through a few hundred acres of forest.   The NWFP carved up the federal forest into different areas for different emphasis.  I am talking about Matrix lands which are supposed to be available and managed for timber harvest.  They are not LSR, or Riparian or even (my brain is tired) for experiments.  Matrix is timber land. 

Read that plan.  Don't dig up papers and newpaper articles.  Read the plan and then a few forest plans. 

Matrix lands are not old growth nor are they owl nesting areas.   Therefore, it was supposed to be fairly easy to have timber harvest in those acres and meet a certain amount or ASQ  allowable sale quantity.  That target has never been met. 

You also need to quit bringing up old growth. 

A.  If it is cut, it is because it is a hazard to life or in the way of a parking lot or road repair or construction.  It is not part of a timber sale.  Read that over until you understand. 

B.  It isn't going to be put up for sale.  THE MAJORITY OF MILLS ARE NO LONGER ABLE TO MANUFACTURE LARGE DIAMETER LOGS.  They do not want it.  They won't pay for it. 

C.  Second growth stands already have roads or remnants of roads and landings on site.  This lowers logging costs, should it ever be logged again.

D.  The FS is deathly afraid of clearcuts, and if they do any clearcutting it is to create openings for wildlife or vegetation.  Not to make money. 

E.  Second growth contains plantations.  These plantations were over planted, which is a sound practice but if left alone, become stagnant.   We call it doghair.   It's a thick tangle of sickly poles that is hard to walk through, much less provide food or shelter for wildlife.  It needs to be thinned and thinned again. 

I'm done here.  Taking part in this topic makes me sympathetic for the medical people at this time who are being second guessed and their recommendations ignored.  I use lumber, therefore I support the harvest of trees. I went to school and studied forestry, I worked in it for 30+ years from planting trees to figuring out logging systems.   End of story.

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Ski
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 1:54 pm 
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treeswarper wrote:
I'm done here.

My girlfriend suggests that 2020 gave us too many people with too much spare time to argue with other people on the internet.

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I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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Tom
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 3:14 pm 
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treeswarper wrote:
Taking part in this topic makes me sympathetic for the medical people at this time who are being second guessed and their recommendations ignored.

What recommendations?  Are you referring to Aurelia Skipwith?
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altasnob
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 4:02 pm 
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treeswarper wrote:
Matrix lands are not old growth nor are they owl nesting areas.

The matrix lands in the NWFP only account for 16% of the total forests, about 4 million acres. And I believe at least some of the matrix land still fits the definition of old growth. Can you point me to a cite that suggest otherwise? I would agree that the logging should occur on the matrix lands if possible, as opposed to the other land designations. But even if this matrix lands are mismanaged, that leaves 84% of the forest that are correctly managed.

The NWFP's goal is to maintain the amount of old growth. If every year there is 4.2–5.4% loss due to wildfire and a 0.7 to 0.9% loss from insects (data from report above), you have to increase the amount of old growth forests by 6% each year to maintain that equilibrium. To do this, you must set aside 6% of the second growth land so it gains old growth characteristics. That means logging areas get decreased over time. But your beef should be with the Northwest Forest Plan itself, which was adopted by the Forest Service, rather than blame environmental groups.
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brineal
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PostSun Jan 24, 2021 8:10 pm 
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altasnob wrote:
The matrix lands in the NWFP only account for 16% of the total forests, about 4 million acres. And I believe at least some of the matrix land still fits the definition of old growth. Can you point me to a cite that suggest otherwise? I would agree that the logging should occur on the matrix lands if possible, as opposed to the other land designations. But even if this matrix lands are mismanaged, that leaves 84% of the forest that are correctly managed.

The NWFP's goal is to maintain the amount of old growth. If every year there is 4.2–5.4% loss due to wildfire and a 0.7 to 0.9% loss from insects (data from report above), you have to increase the amount of old growth forests by 6% each year to maintain that equilibrium. To do this, you must set aside 6% of the second growth land so it gains old growth characteristics. That means logging areas get decreased over time. But your beef should be with the Northwest Forest Plan itself, which was adopted by the Forest Service, rather than blame environmental groups.

Logging on Fed lands is decreasing over time.  It’s actually a management problem that should be addressed.  But won’t be.  Because tree emotions supersede rational conversation and policy implementation.
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treeswarper
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PostMon Jan 25, 2021 10:11 am 
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Ski wrote:
treeswarper wrote:
I'm done here.

My girlfriend suggests that 2020 gave us too many people with too much spare time to argue with other people on the internet.

She is correct.  Armchair experts have multiplied like rabbits.  Time for dog and pie pictures.  Oh, and I got vaccinated on Saturday.  Arm felt like it got punched but I have read that it is the second shot that is most likely to cause a bit of aches and pains.

Meanwhile:
The Used Dog was not contemplating a jump here.
The Used Dog was not contemplating a jump here.

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Pyrites
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PostTue Jan 26, 2021 10:05 am 
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I assume this letter in last Sunday’s Seattle Times has by now been read by every district ranger in R-6, and by timber associations. As much of a Fine, we’re ready to fight, how did that work out for you last time, notice as I’ve ever read.

Best.

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-return-of-the-spotted-owl-wars/

PS: Yes, I still read ink on dead trees printed material.
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Ski
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PostTue Jan 26, 2021 12:03 pm 
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^ Some of the reader comments below the article underscore a point I've tried to make several times here over the years: Designating the Spotted Owl as the "indicator species" was a mistake.

If it's being pushed out of its habitat by another species - the Barred Owl - no amount of regulation will prevent that from happening.

I have essentially the same thing happening in my back yard: the Western Scrub Jays have pushed out the Stellers Jays, which I very rarely see here now. When I first moved into this house the Stellers were here all the time. That had nothing to do with any timber harvesting.

Things happen in the animal kingdom over which we have no control. In this case, it's quite possible the role of the Barred Owl is being grossly understated.

===

As for that Sacramento Bee article mentioned above:
I was not hallucinating. It was linked to here somewhere. Maybe the link got lost in one of the database crashes, Tom. I don't know.
You guys can go ahead and argue among yourselves about the numbers - it doesn't change the overall picture, which was comprehensively detailed in that series of articles.
But by all means, feel free to cherry-pick the facts that support your argument - it will serve you well to convince each other how right you are.

Two more of you being added to the ignore list. I'm done listening to (and reading) your noise.
If I'm not responding to your posts, you now know why.

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brineal
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PostTue Jan 26, 2021 12:18 pm 
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Pyrites wrote:
I assume this letter in last Sunday’s Seattle Times has by now been read by every district ranger in R-6, and by timber associations. As much of a Fine, we’re ready to fight, how did that work out for you last time, notice as I’ve ever read.

Best.

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-return-of-the-spotted-owl-wars/

PS: Yes, I still read ink on dead trees printed material.

An interesting read; I am not sure what is meant by "timber industry" in the article.  The maps of areas opened in WA that I reviewed indicated that very little of the newly opened lands are in private hands.

They appeared to be by and large Federal lands and / or State lands.

Private timber industry will oppose and lobby against influx in Fed logging - basic supply and demand economics, the Feds going logging will increase supply and prices will suffer without a corresponding increase in demand.

My brother is a forester for IEP; they would oppose the Feds going logging.

There still remains the approval process to green light any given timber activity on Fed land and the inevitable lawsuits that will entail and the issue that there would be no place to send old growth for milling, even if the goal would be to cut old growth.  Which it won't be.

Also, if the current admin. continues along the current trajectory, it appears they are doing everything they can to blanket reverse Trump-era policies, so this is likely going away in general.
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PostWed Jan 27, 2021 5:02 am 
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brineal wrote:
"... it appears they are doing everything they can to blanket reverse Trump-era policies..."

.... which is why I said right at the beginning of this thread there's no reason to get all excited about this.

but if you're in the business of soliciting monetary donations from your supporters, this is serious dog-whistle stuff.

appreciate your comments in the other thread. it became obvious that it was pointless to further pursue any discussion with people who don't grasp the concept that "dialog" has at its root "di", meaning two.

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altasnob
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PostWed Jan 27, 2021 9:14 am 
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So answer this question please: why did the Trump administration announce this new rule expanding logging lands on January 13, 2021, AFTER the election and just days before Biden took over?

If the rule was announced before the election, like opening ANWR for bidding, one could argue it was done by Trump to please his constituents to get their vote. But why did Trump open the PNW National Forests to logging knowing it would likely be reversed by Biden? You seem to suggest the only purpose was to get people to donate to their environmental group of choice, which doesn't make much sense that Trump would do this to help environmental groups.
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