Forum Index > Trail Talk > Wildland Fire Predictive Service's June outlook map posted + February % of normal precipitation map
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Eric Hansen
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Eric Hansen
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PostThu Apr 07, 2022 7:39 am 
Wildfire Today: https://wildfiretoday.com/2022/04/03/precipitation-january-through-march-was-record-lowest-in-some-western-areas/ Map at above url Headlines: "Precipitation January through March was record lowest in some Western areas 100-year records were set in areas of Northern California, Southern Oregon, Central Idaho, and Northern Nevada" Partial text: "Of course there is a temptation to conclude that extremely dry soils and vegetation in April will lead to more acres burned than average, but the reality is that the weather in the summer has veto power. If conditions during the peak of the western wildfire season are cooler, wetter, more humid, and less windy than typical, it will not necessarily be a busier than average fire season."

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PostMon Apr 11, 2022 8:20 am 
A late season rescue looks possible for the shrub steppe, and mountains east of the Cascade Crest in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. It is unseasonably moist, and cold in all of those areas, has been for several days, and will be most likely through at least the 19th. Although, there are a couple of sunny days thrown in, by and large this may well put off fire season for a good bit of time. Perhaps 30-40% of the entire season snowpack may fall in this period in the east slope mountains at least through Central Oregon.

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Eric Hansen
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PostSat Apr 16, 2022 10:10 am 
Drought Monitor's weekly map https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu Text for West West The West Region endured another dry week, with the heaviest precipitation falling along and west of the Cascades in Washington and northern Oregon (generally 1.5 to 3.5 inches, with isolated amounts reaching 6 inches in the highest elevations). This is one of two areas free of dryness and drought (northwestern Montana and adjacent Idaho is the other). D2 and D3 cover a large majority of the West Region, and exceptional drought (D4) has become entrenched in the Oregon Cascades, south-central Nevada, parts of southern New Mexico, and northeastern New Mexico. Slow worsening and expansion continued, with noticeable deterioration in parts of New Mexico, Nevada, and California this week. Water storage in the two largest reservoirs in the west – Lake Powell along the central Arizona/Utah border, and Lake Mead farther downstream along the Colorado River – has dropped to unprecedented levels. In early April, the combined storage was only 44 percent of the average since 1964, and less than 75 percent of the storage in Lake Mead alone just before Lake Powell started to fill.

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PostFri Apr 22, 2022 8:03 am 
Large fires in Arizona and New Mexico with "extremely critical fire conditions through this weekend" https://wildfiretoday.com/ Fires near Flagstaff, Sunset Crater, and near Santa Fe. The warning includes much of New Mexico and Eastern Colorado.

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Eric Hansen
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PostFri Apr 22, 2022 7:32 pm 
"Out-of-control fires erupted in New Mexico and Colorado late Friday due to combination of ferocious winds, extremely low humidity, high temperatures and drought. Forecasters had described the situation as “dire" ahead of the flare-up. On Friday afternoon into the evening, numerous fires erupted in New Mexico and Colorado amid winds gusting over 60-70 mph (additional blazes were also reported in Kansas and Nebraska) and evacuation orders were issued in several communities: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/04/22/fire-threat-west-colorado-newmexico/

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Eric Hansen
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PostSat Apr 23, 2022 10:11 pm 
This is not typical’: Arizona wildfire fighters brace for threat ‘on steroids’ Winds and dryness heighten danger from Tunnel fire as teams battle blazes in American south-west Firefighters working to keep more homes from burning on the edge of a mountain town in northern Arizona were treated to scattered showers and cooler temperatures early on Friday, but the favorable weather was not expected to last as more ferocious winds were forecast to batter parts of Arizona and all of New Mexico through the weekend. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/22/arizona-tunnel-fire-wildfire-new-mexico

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Eric Hansen
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PostSun May 01, 2022 8:27 pm 
Bump. Wildland Fire Predictive Services put up their May 1 update, with outlook map thru August. Some areas of elevated concern in the Northwest. Interesting to see the monsoon (typically June 15 to Sept. 1) ease conditions in the Southwest in the July map. See https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm Also their "North American" outlook maps are useful for scoping what may be happening just across the Canadian border. https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf Drought Monitor posts weekly at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx A chunk of Oregon gets their worst possible rating, D-4, "Exceptional Drought" Wildfire Today, an online magazine of reports, opinion and forecasts is at https://wildfiretoday.com

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PostSun May 01, 2022 9:21 pm 
It might be a little too early to get too excited about the NW fire season - depending on what elevations you want to look at. Here in the east side side valleys of the WA Cascades, it was a low snow winter, and a kinda dry spring, so far. For the lower elevations, the NIFC predictive services outlooks do point to some concern. But, I’d think MOST folks on this site would be most concerned about higher elevation fire season impacts; smoke impacts, trail closures, fire risk itself, etc in the areas where they hike. I got to thinking about high elevations and fire season potential a couple days ago. And looked at what snow is left. Snotel sites show that other than the Yakima basin, snowpack is above normal. In some cases, well above. Harts Pass is nearly 130% of average! https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Washington From a wildfire standpoint what this means is that the ‘melt’ might be sufficiently delayed at those elevations. Therefore, larger fuels - those 3-8” dia and up, which drive fire severity - likely won’t have enough time to dry out and contribute to extreme fires. And the next week is, yet again, forecast to be cooler than normal. Does this mean there won’t be high elevation fires? No, but hopefully, they would be small, short duration and easy to control. Does this mean 3 or 4 weeks of 90 degree temps and very low humidity won’t reverse things. Nope! An old fire hand was often asked “Well, Bob, what sort of fire season will we have this year?”. Bob’s response was always “Ask me in November”.

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Eric Hansen
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PostWed Jun 01, 2022 11:27 am 
Predictive Service's posted new maps forecasting thru September. YRMV. https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm

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PostThu Jul 07, 2022 7:03 pm 
Predictive Services posted new maps with their outlook for wild land fire potential through October. California looks like it could have a bad fire year. YRMV https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

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Forum Index > Trail Talk > Wildland Fire Predictive Service's June outlook map posted + February % of normal precipitation map
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