Forum Index > Public Lands Stewardship > the myth of the warming Puget Sound climate
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MCaver
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PostWed Sep 16, 2009 2:38 pm 
Cool video. I've seen that guy's work before -- he's an incredible photographer.  up.gif

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peltoms
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PostWed Sep 16, 2009 3:36 pm 
Oh, Tazz all the good glacier stuff is in that thread. This is ok but his plain videos are great he works with some fine glaciologists in setting up his shots Jason Box Ohio State and Tad Pfeffer CU .  The regular videos are at vimeo.  My favorite is Rinks Isbrae.  And of course two that I have worked on Mendenhall Glacier and Jakobshavn Isbrae.  This shows what a real cinematographer can do compared to my pitiful time lapses, such as Columbia GlacierColumbia

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Scrooge
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PostWed Sep 16, 2009 3:57 pm 
Thanks, Tazz.            humpy.gif


What a marvelous lecturer.

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joker
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PostTue Sep 22, 2009 5:28 pm 
Interesting newspaper article that seems relevant to the premise of this thread, as recently re-stated by weatherman. A few snippets:

Quote:
The world leaders who met at the United Nations to discuss climate change on Tuesday are faced with an intricate challenge: building momentum for an international climate treaty at a time when global temperatures have been relatively stable for a decade and may even drop in the next few years.

The plateau in temperatures has been seized upon by skeptics as evidence that the threat of global warming is overblown. And some climate experts worry that it could hamper treaty negotiations and slow the progress of legislation to curb carbon dioxide emissions in the United States.

Scientists say the pattern of the last decade — after a precipitous rise in average global temperatures in the 1990s — is a result of cyclical variations in ocean conditions and has no bearing on the long-term warming effects of greenhouse gases building up in the atmosphere.
...

The recent spate of relatively cool years is particularly noticeable because it followed a seesawing from unusually cool temperatures to unusually hot ones in the 1990s, said Vicky Pope of Britain’s climate agency, called the Met Office.

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines had a cooling influence, as the volcano threw off veil-like emissions. Then, in 1998, an El Niño episode in the Pacific Ocean set off a record-setting hot spell.

The global average temperature is now only an imperceptible .01 degree Fahrenheit higher than it was in 1999, according to the British meteorology office. A series of unremarkable storm seasons followed the string of destructive storms in 2004 and 2005 that included Hurricane Katrina. And in the Arctic, an extraordinary summer retreat of sea ice in 2007 has been followed by less substantial losses and projections by some researchers of a possible, if temporary, recovery.

Most climate scientists stand firm in their projections of centuries of rising seas and other disruptive effects of a warming planet if humans take no steps to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases.
...

Meanwhile, social scientists who study the way people understand and respond to environmental problems say it is not surprising that the current temperature stability has created confusion and apathy. Getting people to care about a climate threat that is decades away is hard enough, they say, without adding in the vagaries of natural climate cycles.

At best, said Robert J. Brulle, a sociologist at Drexel University, global warming remains an abstraction for many people .

“It does not have the direct visual or emotive impact of seeing seabirds covered in oil from the Exxon Valdez oil spill,” he said.

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pimaCanyon
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PostTue Sep 22, 2009 5:39 pm 
Wish I'd grabbed the link, but a couple days ago I read an article about the current sunspot minimum that we're now in.  It's been correlated with lower global temps.  So it's possible that once the sunspots kick back in to their more normal mode, global temps will heat up again.

I've said this a few times on threads of this subject:  Climate change is about looking at the big picture and long term trends.  All the variables that drive climate change are probably not even known at this point.  Even with what we do know, climate forecasting is complex and the overall trend is not likely to be linear measured year over year.  It's more like the stock market, general trend may be down, but currently we're going up, or vice versa.

Bottom line is that we will have to look at a graph of global temps over very long periods of time, like decades or centuries to really know the trend.  Whether the temps really have leveled off and we'll now see no more increases in global temps, or whether the trend really is up and that trend will resume next year or the year after, or the year after that--this all remains to be seen.

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Scrooge
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PostTue Sep 22, 2009 6:29 pm 
All that melting of arctic ice is resulting in a temporary cooling of global sea surface temperatures, which in turn has a cooling effect on the atmosphere. However, over time the level of annual melting will stabilize and global temperatures will again begin to climb.


For those interested in digging into the science, look through

Global Sea Surface Temperature Trends (1850-2009)

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Couvehiker86
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PostFri Sep 25, 2009 4:22 am 
Scrooge wrote:
All that melting of arctic ice is resulting in a temporary cooling of global sea surface temperatures, which in turn has a cooling effect on the atmosphere. However, over time the level of annual melting will stabilize and global temperatures will again begin to climb.

For those interested in digging into the science, look through

Despite all of the melted arctic ice (though it has recovered the last two years), global sea surface temperatures have actually been above normal throughout the year this year, causing the weak El-Nino conditions we are currently experiencing. Yet 2009 still lags WRT global temps. So if the planet has stopped cooling, or is indeed cooling down, it's for different reasons. I'd like to do a post about solar cycles on here sometime.

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weatherman
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PostMon Oct 05, 2009 8:14 pm 
A new glacier may be forming in Bend OR.  Note the unprecedented snowpack for October.  In Bend this apparently is the heaviest October snowfall in 100 years, and it's only October 4th!  Some folks thought it was too early for snow and were trying to soak up the last rays of sunshine before winter sets in.

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Gil
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PostMon Oct 05, 2009 9:05 pm 
Durn! Central Oregon nearly a degree above mean!

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weatherman
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PostMon Oct 05, 2009 9:51 pm 
Despite recording 97 F on 23 Sept 2009, Redmond OR near Bend is averaging 1.5 deg F below normal for the past month:

STATION:   REDMOND OR
YEAR:      2009
ELEVATION: 3077 ft
LATITUDE:   44 16 N
LONGITUDE: 121  9 W
===================================================================

12Z  AVG  MX 2MIN  PK 3SEC
DY MON MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD  SPD DIR  SPD DIR
===================================================================
5 Sep  78  43  60  -2   4   0   Tr    0    0   8   32 280   38 280
6 Sep  70  35  52 -10  12   0    0    0    0  11   28 250   33 240
7 Sep  68  31  50 -12  15   0    0    0    0   5   14 350   17 340
8 Sep  79  33  56  -6   9   0    0    0    0   5   15 340   18 350
9 Sep  83  40  62   0   3   0    0    0    0   5   17 320   23 300
10 Sep  86  41  64   4   1   0    0    0    0   5   16 330   21 330
11 Sep  86  44  65   5   0   0    0    0    0   5   16 330   21 320
12 Sep  89  41  65   5   0   0    0    0    0   6   16 330   21 330
13 Sep  90  53  72  12   0   7   Tr    0    0   6   24 280   31 280
14 Sep  80  46  63   4   2   0    0    0    0   6   17 300   22 310
15 Sep  85  42  64   4   1   0    0    0    0   5   16  20   18  30
16 Sep  83  46  64   6   0   0    0    0    0   8   18 320   24 320
17 Sep  75  43  59   0   6   0    0    0    0   4   13 300   16 300
18 Sep  85  30  58   0   7   0    0    0    0   4   17 340   21 340
19 Sep  75  46  60   2   4   0    0    0    0   8   25 300   32 310
20 Sep  68  30  49  -9  16   0    0    0    0   4   14 330   17 330
21 Sep  81  24  52  -4  12   0    0    0    0   6   15 330   21 310
22 Sep  85  36  60   4   4   0    0    0    0   6   16 330   20 330
23 Sep  97  41  69  12   0   4    0    0    0   5   18 330   22 330
24 Sep  87  39  63   7   2   0    0    0    0   6   14 340   18 340
25 Sep  88  38  63   7   2   0    0    0    0   4   14 350   16 350
26 Sep  87  35  61   5   4   0    0    0    0   5   21 310   25 320
27 Sep  74  29  52  -4  13   0    0    0    0   5   16 330   18 340
28 Sep  75  32  54  -2  11   0    0    0    0   6   23 300   26 300
29 Sep  56  38  47  -8  18   0    0    0    0   8   23 300   29 290
30 Sep  55  26  40 -14  24   0    0    0    0  10   23 280   31 290
1 Oct  62  28  45 -10  20   0    0    0    0   3   12 350   14 350
2 Oct  59  29  44 -10  21   0    0    0    0   7   18 300   23 310
3 Oct  49  26  38 -16  27   0  .01    M    0   7   24  30   30  30
4 Oct  47  35  41 -13  24   0  .35    M    0   9   18 360   26 310
===================================================================
Temperature - Mean Max: 76.1  Mean Min: 36.7  Range: 97 to 24
Temperature - Mean: 56.4  Dptr from Normal: -1.5 F
Total Precip: 0.36  Total Snowfall:
Mean Wind Speed: 6.0
Total HDD: 262  Total CDD: 11

Units: Temperature-deg F, Precipitation-inches, Wind-mph

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Obi Tony Kenobi
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Obi Tony Kenobi
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PostMon Oct 05, 2009 9:56 pm 
I didn't know that Puget Sound now stretch all the way to Oregon past the Columbia River!

Oh, and by the way, one month below normal temps doesn't mean Global Warming is not real, all this shows is your ignorance and you sticking your head in the sand. After all, , if you don't see it happening, you can't admit it's happening.  shakehead.gif

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weatherman
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PostMon Oct 05, 2009 10:40 pm 
Looking at departures from normal in eastern Oregon for the past 30 days you find a rather large range of values with Burns and Redmond at opposite ends of the spectrum:

Temperature departures from normal for 5 Sept - 4 Oct 2009:
Rome  +2.4 F
Burns  + 2.3
Ontario  +1.7
Klamath Falls  + 1.2
Pendleton  +0.2
Baker  -0.2
Redmond  -1.5
Meacham  -2.4

But in summary you can say NE Oregon was mostly below normal while SE Oregon was above normal.  Rome OR is in the SE corner of Oregon.

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pimaCanyon
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PostWed Oct 07, 2009 8:13 am 
Obi Tony Kenobi wrote:
I didn't know that Puget Sound now stretch all the way to Oregon past the Columbia River!

Oh, and by the way, one month below normal temps doesn't mean Global Warming is not real, all this shows is your ignorance and you sticking your head in the sand. After all, , if you don't see it happening, you can't admit it's happening.  shakehead.gif

The title of the thread is Myth of Warming Puget Sound Climate.  Nothing explicitly said about Global Warming, just Puget Sound Warming (includes Bend, OR   confused.gif )

Global Warming doesn't imply that EVERY area will get warmer, just the planet overall.  Some areas may see cooling.  Some may see extreme warming.

Moreover, month to month changes have little use when it comes to tracking Global Warming.  Even year to year is probably too short a time frame.

To avoid the implication that this thread has something to do with Global Warming, maybe the thread title should be changed to:  "The Myth that Global Warming can be determined by what happens to Puget Sound Climate"

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Gil
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PostWed Oct 07, 2009 8:57 am 
theLarch wrote:
Global Warming doesn't imply that EVERY area will get warmer, just the planet overall.  Some areas may see cooling.  Some may see extreme warming.

What he said.

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joker
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joker
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PostWed Oct 07, 2009 10:31 am 
I must admit, I'm still quite confused as to exactly what the supposed "myth" referred to in the title is.

weatherman wrote:
The temperature around Puget Sound peaked in the early 90s and has since cooled slightly, but there has been a net increase certainly over the past 100 years.

In other words, it has been warming, but cooling, but basically warming, per the writer of the OP. It is hard not to assume the intent is simply stoking of confusion via cherry-picked data that goes well beyond the region highlighted in the thread title.

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