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Blue Dome
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 11:56 am 
I remember as a little kid one year it must have snowed 12+ inches in Bellevue. We had two-foot drifts and school was closed for a week. It was great. No more. And say goodbye to the polar bears (not any Bellevue polar bears). http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/09/28/arctic.melting.reut/index.html
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Report: Ice-free Arctic summers possible by 2100 Scientists: 'We will have to live with the outcome' Thursday, September 29, 2005; Posted: 2:57 a.m. EDT (06:57 GMT) NEW YORK, (Reuters) -- The Arctic ice shelf has melted for the fourth straight year to its smallest area in a century, driven by rising temperatures that appear linked to a buildup of greenhouse gases, U.S. scientists said Wednesday… It is the least amount of Arctic ice in at least a century, according to both the satellite data and shipping data going back many more years, according to a report from the groups… From 1978 to 2000, the sea ice area averaged 2.70 million square miles (7 million square km), the report said. It noted the melting trend had shrunk Inuit hunting grounds and endangered polar bears, seals and other wildlife. The report warns that if melting rates continue, the summertime Arctic may be completely ice-free before the end of the century, echoing last year's findings from the Arctic Council, an eight-nation report by 250 experts…

“I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell.” — Harry S. Truman
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Tom
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 1:56 pm 
Note to all. If this topic devolves into non-hiking related political discussion (as it has in the past) it will be locked.

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Scrooge
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 5:35 pm 
An ice free Artic summer and a shrinking ice-shelf in the Antarctic are somehow far away and impersonal; but we don't have to go nearly so far to find the effects of global warming. We've talked about them a lot on this forum, as we hike up in the mountains and find that the glaciers are going, going, gone. This year, I've been struck by three that are still just barely hanging on. The remnants of the Pinnacle Glacier on the north side of Pinnacle Peak were so pitiful when I was there in the middle of July that I thought it unlikely to last the summer. Out at the Ice Caves a few weeks ago, the remaining pile of ice looked unlikely to survive another two years like this last one. And, up in the Enchantments in August, it didn't look like the remains of the Snow Creek Glacier would be around much longer. Dicey's moats are chopping up a section of the Sholes Glacier that was still a pleasant snowfield at this time of year, two years ago. And last year, down at Mt Hood, plans for a romp on the Elliot Glacier were thwarted because the area of open ice appeared to have retreated at least a quarter mile in just a year, leaving an uninviting morass of morrainal rubble. It's true that glaciers like the Colchuck and the Emmons will last our lifetimes, but we're losing a lot, and the character of our mountains is changing sadly in the process. David

Something lost behind the ranges. Lost and waiting for you....... Go and find it. Go!
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Malachai Constant
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 5:52 pm 
my avatar is peasoup lake which in the 1980's was the color of peasoup for the crescent shaped edge that was not covered by the Lynch Glacier on Daniels, and dotted with icebergs. The Hinman glacier had a lower lobe which is now a shallow lake.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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Tom
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 5:56 pm 
Quote:
Dicey's moats are chopping up a section of the Sholes Glacier that was still a pleasant snowfield at this time of year, two years ago.
No doubt things have gotten warmer. We've observed the Cascade glaciers retreat for the past century. But is the difference from two years ago the result of greenhouse gas emissions or a very low snow year? It's easy to point at a barren glacier and say look, global warming. eek.gif I wonder if hikers in the Sierras would make the same observations after a record snowfall this year?

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touron
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 6:13 pm 
I'm sure the "experts" will be guessing and second guessing eachother for the next few decades and perhaps longer. In the meantime we get to witness this interesting phenomena. It's sad to see the glaciers melt away, and I hope it's not a long term trend, but I suppose things could just as easily freeze up, the glaciers expand, and all the lakes we go to disappear until we see books with titles like "1 Hike in Glacier Peak Wilderness" and "3 Hikes in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness." These 4 hikes would be massivley popular and one would have to go hiking in the mall to find solitude.

Touron is a nougat of Arabic origin made with almonds and honey or sugar, without which it would just not be Christmas in Spain.
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Scrooge
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 7:38 pm 
Tom wrote:
No doubt things have gotten warmer. We've observed the Cascade glaciers retreat for the past century. But is the difference from two years ago the result of greenhouse gas emissions or a very low snow year? It's easy to point at a barren glacier and say look, global warming. eek.gif I wonder if hikers in the Sierras would make the same observations after a record snowfall this year?
There was a world record snowfall at Mt Baker in the '98-'99 season (1140"). It barely made a blip in the trend. It took longer, but it all just melted. There were no additional years of snow piled on top of it to compact it into ice. Back in the '72-'73 season the previous world record (1122") was set at Paradise on Mt Rainier. That's about the time when the USGS was drawing the boundaries of the Pinnacle Glacier on the map ....... a time when the Paradise Ice Caves still existed to be visited. frown.gif The evidence is in. It doesn't matter whether we did it or it's just one phase in the long cycle of climatological change. For us, it's just a question of how much of the impact we'll have to witness. David

Something lost behind the ranges. Lost and waiting for you....... Go and find it. Go!
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touron
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 8:06 pm 
I sold my snow shoes to some sucker who doesn't realize global warming is happening. I used the profits to buy the latest model sand crampons.

Touron is a nougat of Arabic origin made with almonds and honey or sugar, without which it would just not be Christmas in Spain.
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Malachai Constant
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 8:22 pm 
The noise level is at least an order of magnitude higher than the general trend. The glaciers are the best indicator of the trend they take many years to melt. Ski seasons are an indicator of the noise. It may even be possible that there may be more good seasons due to increased precipitation and severity of storms. We are in the midst of a big experiment the results we can not determine. Even if all the glaciers melt and we are left with nothing but piles of choss we still cannot determine for sure the cause. Who knows perhaps if it were not for the CO2 and CH4 we would be seeing a renewed ice age.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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Blue Dome
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 9:02 pm 
Scrooge wrote:
The evidence is in. It doesn't matter whether we did it or it's just one phase in the long cycle of climatological change. For us, it's just a question of how much of the impact we'll have to witness.
Yes.
Scrooge wrote:
Back in the '72-'73 season…
I think it was 1972-73 when we had a heavy snowfall in Bellevue. I can remember as a little kid school was closed for a week, then for several days more. The roads were iced over and temps were sub-freezing for some time. The weather was regularly like that for the years before I started school. A buddy of mine’s father who was born and raised here, says some of the winters in the 1940s and 50s were quite severe. Some other folks here may be able to attest to that. Of course, anecdotal information over such a short span might be meaningless, but if one accepts the concept of human-caused global warming — even as a marginal influence — then it’s our duty to do something about it. As everybody knows, global warming goes far beyond retreating glaciers and rising water levels. Example — it results in changing ecosystems with increased populations of mosquitoes that transmit serious disease: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/07/0730_wiretigermoz_2.html
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Ferocious Tiger Mosquito Invades the United States ABCNews.com July 30, 2001 For those folks who live in the far north and find some comfort in the idea that the planet is getting warmer, here's a bit of bad news: Hordes of nasty mosquitoes may be heading your way. Ever since it was accidentally introduced into the United States in the 1980s, the Asian tiger mosquito has expanded its range faster than a prairie fire and it now makes its home throughout the southeastern states… "We were able to show that populations at higher temperatures had extremely high rates of population increase, and that the population increased very rapidly initially,"… For example, take the Asian tiger mosquito. Please. This is a really nasty little bug that is capable of transmitting serious diseases, according to research in various labs. It hasn't happened so far in the United States, as far as we know, but the research shows the tiger can be a successful bearer, or "vector," of such diseases as LaCrosse encephalitis, yellow fever, and dengue fever…
Then there’s the issue of changed weather patterns and how that affects global food production. A whole other subject. With all of the data out there, it's unreasonable to claim we are responsible for no or very little contribution to global warming. It’s unreasonable to expect all of that data is flat wrong. I suppose we can ignore global warning and let the combustion engines roar, but with increased mortality due to disease and food shortage — direct results of global warming, and at least part of that our doing — that’s seems a tad irresponsible.
Quote:
The research, published in the July 18 issue of the Journal of Medical Entomology, underscores a basic challenge facing scientists today. Many serious consequences of global climate change may have little to do with inundated beaches from sea-level rise—the most frequently cited result of global warming. It's likely there will be many changes, and many surprises, if the planet's weather changes as much over the coming years as many experts predict.
When we get hit with the “surprises,” it’ll be too late to do anything about it.

“I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell.” — Harry S. Truman
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Jeepasaurusrex
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PostSun Oct 02, 2005 11:35 pm 
Gotta love the natural warming trends the earth goes thru every 1000 years or so. Core samples of glaciers have proven the earth warms and cools in cycles. This has been going on since before man inhabited the earth. suuure.gif

"I would like to see things from your point of view, but I cannot get my head that far up my butt"
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Blue Dome
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PostMon Oct 03, 2005 12:47 am 
Jeepasaurusrex wrote:
Core samples of glaciers have proven the earth warms and cools in cycles.
Nobody doubts that, but the evidence overwhelmingly supports the assertion that human activity is accelerating such a warming trend or perpetuating an unnatural warming trend. Whether or not we'll do anything about it is the question.

“I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell.” — Harry S. Truman
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polarbear
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PostMon Oct 03, 2005 12:39 pm 
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Nobody doubts that, but the evidence overwhelmingly supports the assertion that human activity is accelerating such a warming trend or perpetuating an unnatural warming trend.
TV and potato chips are doing much to decelerate the trend.

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MtnGoat
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PostMon Oct 03, 2005 1:22 pm 
Some of us must have missed when what the earth does on it's own with respect to warming and cooling became known and proven... so that we can now tell what is "abnormal" compared to what is known and proven "normal". Commence armwaving about making comparisons to the unknowable, deciding this is abnormal compared to what you don't know the reason for in the first place.... and pronouncing this a fact based, non political position. No politics here, just an observation of the facts concerning the stated position. Non political, fact based response #1 i am interested in is who knows the 'normal' temp we "should" be at now, and the proof that they know this.

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Malachai Constant
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PostMon Oct 03, 2005 1:50 pm 
THe bottom line is that if we reduce CO2 and CH4 emissions the earths climate will be cooler than if we do not, that we know for sure. It is unknowable as to the absolute cause of this centurys warming but it is most likely increased emissions but, that fact is irrelevant.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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