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CC
cascade curmudgeon



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cascade curmudgeon
PostFri Dec 13, 2019 11:14 pm 
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Brian R wrote:
BTW, have you posted any trip reports? If you have, they aren't visible under your avatar. I'd love to read them.

Well if you must know:  Back when I was doing stuff that might be considered interesting or informative (e.g., some of the obscure peaks on Peak Baggers Asylum) I didn't do pictures, so I posted any trip reports on WTA.  Now I just do mundane stuff and trail work.  I consider trail work "trip reports" fishing for compliments, so I don't do them.  But hey, thanks for asking.

As for ageism. Yeah, I'm ageist.  I say don't trust anybody over 90.  They should have both their car keys and their voting rights taken away.

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Brian R
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PostFri Dec 13, 2019 11:53 pm 
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CC wrote:
As for ageism. Yeah, I'm ageist.  I say don't trust anybody over 90.  They should have both their car keys and their voting rights taken away.

More evidence showing why self-described progressives are anything but.
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PostFri Dec 13, 2019 11:58 pm 
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CC wrote:
MtnGoat wrote:
History has demonstrated the falsity of arguments that history has a social or political 'direction' in terms of social advancement

You can't be serious?

The absolute bloodbath that was the 20th Century likely validates MG's claim. Society is probably little different than evolution in this regard--that is, headed in no particular direction.
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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 6:50 am 
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If trip reports are fishing for compliments, what are we fishing for by posting in the global warming thread?

Several completely unsubstantiated claims to throw out for the purpose of discussion:

1. This is not a zero sum game; we can improve the climate and human well-being at the same time.

2. It is worthwhile to talk about existential risk.  Survival of the species is in no way guaranteed, but being aware of the risks can help reduce their probability.

3. One can talk about existential risk, or at least, say, the worst-case climate scenario, without being an "alarmist".  Indeed an optimist who enjoys the challenge of a seemingly intractable problem can do this.

4. Any time broad action is suggested, the alarm bells of unintended consequences should be going off.  (Example: climate engineering, what could possibly go wrong?)  Concerns should not be dismissed out of hand, but at the same time, decisions ultimately need to be made.

5. Arguments about who is more progressive aren't really interesting or useful.

6. We are in uncharted territory.  Other than giving us big brains and amazing adaptability, nature didn't prepare us for the challenges we currently face.

7. There is no Planet B

Any more suggestions, or after 713 pages have you simply given up (which would be excusable)?
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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 9:51 am 
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I'm out of town this week so it might be a few days between posts but I wanted to make a quick response to this.

neek wrote:
2. It is worthwhile to talk about existential risk. Survival of the species is in no way guaranteed, but being aware of the risks can help reduce their probability.

3. One can talk about existential risk, or at least, say, the worst-case climate scenario, without being an "alarmist". Indeed an optimist who enjoys the challenge of a seemingly intractable problem can do this.

Is it really rational to spend any time or energy worrying about existential climate change risk when the projected worst-case scenario is so unlikely?  Shouldn't there be a Greta Thunberg of bio-terror or AI?

IEA vs IPCC AR5
IEA vs IPCC AR5
Coal per capita vs RCP
Coal per capita vs RCP

And how willing will the climate-concerned be to give up their catastrophe narrative, even if the data & science point in that direction?  I'm guessing not very, in the same way that nuclear energy will never have a safe enough track record for the anti-nukes even when it's demonstrably the safest energy source we have in terms of injury per megawatt.

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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 10:38 am 
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neek wrote:
If trip reports are fishing for compliments, what are we fishing for by posting in the global warming thread?

A place to vent, spew, and pontificate?

Where's my prize for the winning answer? dizzy.gif

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"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. 
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 11:15 am 
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existential
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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 12:18 pm 
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CC wrote:
Heartland Institute Suit 1:  That Swedish kid is killing us with global warming.  She's got kids all over the world riled up.  We need to push back.  We need to find a kid that will get sympathy reading our script.

Suit 2:  Yeah, but we better not get an American kid.  With that damn upspeak they all sound like they're unsure of what they are saying.

Suit 1:  Right.  How about a German?  A lot of people think people with German accents are smart.  Hell, Kissinger milked a whole career out of a fake accent.

Suit 2:  Good.  But not too strong an accent, so it sounds like a parody; just enough so you know that they are German.

Suit 1:  I agree.  And it should be a girl, a photogenic girl, that can read the script without a lot of emotion but still sound convincing.  See what you can find.

Suit 2:  OK, I'm on it boss.

Or, you could address her arguments

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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neek
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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 6:47 pm 
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Parked Out wrote:
I'm out of town this week so it might be a few days between posts but I wanted to make a quick response to this.

Appreciate it.  Will avoid another troll-bomb for a few more days.

Parked Out wrote:
Is it really rational to spend any time or energy worrying about existential climate change risk when the projected worst-case scenario is so unlikely?

Suppose it depends on what you mean by "worrying".  Waving hands in air yelling "we're all gonna die" isn't rational even if you are gonna die.  Being concerned about a low-probability high-consequence risk, yes that's rational.

Parked Out wrote:
Shouldn't there be a Greta Thunberg of bio-terror or AI?

Replace bio-terror with nuclear war, and yes!  Frankly I'd rather talk about AI than GW but have gotten no bites the countless times I've brought it up, presumably because people here don't care or don't have much of a clue.  Would love to see a Gretabot get people excited about that whole can of worms.

Parked Out wrote:
And how willing will the climate-concerned be to give up their catastrophe narrative, even if the data & science point in that direction?  I'm guessing not very, in the same way that nuclear energy will never have a safe enough track record for the anti-nukes even when it's demonstrably the safest energy source we have in terms of injury per megawatt.

Dunno, maybe you're right, but people used to believe all sorts of crazy things.  Speaking only from personal experience as someone who's pretty seriously concerned but thinks humans will likely pull through some way or another, I'd be happy to have some reason to sleep a little better at night, although GW is only a piece of my overall environmental concern, so finding out after all these years that it's actually fake probably wouldn't do much to my overall anxiety level, to be honest.  I didn't want to bring up the nuke thing because it seems that it's already been discussed to death here, but am interested in that as well.  There's much more to say on the philosophical side, when time permits.
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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 6:53 pm 
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Ski wrote:
A place to vent, spew, and pontificate?

Where's my prize for the winning answer? dizzy.gif

The prize for answering a rhetorical question is a proverbial slap on the back, I suppose.
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PostSat Dec 14, 2019 7:40 pm 
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neek wrote:
Replace bio-terror with nuclear war, and yes! Frankly I'd rather talk about AI than GW

Yes yes yes!  In the grand scheme of civilization global warming is a trivial nuisance at its worst... but nuclear war is dangerous, and AI... AI is downright terrifying.

If theres anything worth a global agreement to ban... AI is it.  And I mean real high level AI.  Not what exists now(barely being able to drive a car isnt very scary), but what might in 50 years.
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CC
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cascade curmudgeon
PostSat Dec 14, 2019 10:26 pm 
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neek wrote:
If trip reports are fishing for compliments

I said trail work trip reports, not trip trip reports

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cascade curmudgeon
PostSat Dec 14, 2019 10:44 pm 
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thunderhead wrote:
but nuclear war is dangerous, and AI... AI is downright terrifying.

But if we can make it to the singularity without committing nuclear omnicide our AGI overlords will take away our nuclear toys and everything will be fine.  Of course they might decide we are just a drain on resources and eliminate us.  But hey, look on the bright side, we've had a nice run at world domination, and we'll live on, sort of, through them.

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No matter how cynical you become, it's not enough to keep up.  Jane Wagner/Lily Tomlin
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CC
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cascade curmudgeon
PostSat Dec 14, 2019 10:58 pm 
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Brian R wrote:
CC wrote:
MtnGoat wrote:
History has demonstrated the falsity of arguments that history has a social or political 'direction' in terms of social advancement

You can't be serious?

The absolute bloodbath that was the 20th Century likely validates MG's claim. Society is probably little different than evolution in this regard--that is, headed in no particular direction.

see Steven  Pinker: "The Better Angels of our Nature"  (try to ignore the hair).

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No matter how cynical you become, it's not enough to keep up.  Jane Wagner/Lily Tomlin
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PostSun Dec 15, 2019 8:16 am 
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CC wrote:
I said trail work trip reports, not trip trip reports

Indeed, sorry.  One could make the argument for trip reports in general and I wouldn't completely disagree.  I love reading trail work TRs, fwiw.

CC wrote:
Of course they might decide we are just a drain on resources and eliminate us.

Or just let AGW do the work, assuming it wouldn't affect them.

CC wrote:
see Steven  Pinker: "The Better Angels of our Nature"  (try to ignore the hair).

Don't dis the hair, Epstein loved it.
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