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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



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Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 6:01 am 
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My parents compared everything to 1948.  On the EAST side of the mountains it was extremely cold and there was a deep snowpack.   cool.gif I'm the third generation in this state.  Ask an old timer who has lived here.  They'll talk about a lot of snow, and then the May flooding, which will also explain why it is good to have dams on the Columbia.   When it hit hot temperatures in May that year, nobody knew about Global Warming.  They were too busy trying to keep out of the flood.  You newcomers should research the history of the region a bit, then you will know that the weather can do anything here.  Snow every month of the year, or be balmy in December.  That is what makes life interesting.  I hear it got cold in San Diego so maybe you'll want to go farther south when you move.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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kleet
meat tornado



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meat tornado
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 7:17 am 
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Dave Workman wrote:
Item #3: Better be careful around here Mtn Dog. You're trying to use logic where raw emotionalism and fad du jour often trump the discussion.
You are asking very good questions, challenging some folks' thinking. Well done.

You should read a wider variety of threads, Dave.  It's the same old
that's been going on for 60 pages in numerous other threads.  Nothing new here.

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A fuxk, why do I not give one?
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Mtn Dog
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PostMon Dec 22, 2008 8:55 am 
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Kleet,
These threads wouldn't be nearly so long if people actually focused on what the issue is really about, what scientific research has actually provided us in terms of empirical data, and what it means for analyzing changes to the Greenhouse Effect.  But why focus on the real issue when to those who aren't informed it sounds so much more convincing to make ad hominem attacks, emotional appeals, and false claims of "consensus?"

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Footprints on the sands of time will never be made sitting down.
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straydog
slave to a monolith



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slave to a monolith
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 10:07 am 
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Mtn Dog wrote:
straydog wrote:
However, while the topic might be simple, the data and evidence is not.

The amount of CO2 that humans have added to the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial age is a known, measured quantity taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.  What is so complicated about that?

The data I'm refering to is looking at a longer timeline. To really understand if the current changes are unique and global, they've had to look at historical data from all over the world. To establish global patterns going back to (and before) the last ice age, they've used a variety of sources including polar and glacial ice cores, tree ring analysis, peat moss swamps and others.

With this data, they've been able to establish that the changes that have occured since the begining of the industrial age are truely unique in that the rate and amount of change in greenhouse gasses (CO2 is only one of them) has been more extreme than at any other time in history.

MtnDog wrote:
straydog wrote:
It's not just about more precip, it also involves changes in weather patterns because cooling and heating of both water and land changes at diffferent rates (thermal inertia) in different regions. Overall, global average temps go up, very little and very slowly. But the local weather patterns can change more significantly because of the different rates of heating.

That doesn't make any sense.  If the Greenhouse Effect is enhanced by additional CO2 in the atmosphere then how can it cause different rates of heating in different regions?  Doesn't the CO2 reemit infrared heat photons in all directions, some towards space, others towards earth, and the rest toward other molecules in the atmosphere?  If this is so then the heating should be evenly distributed across the globe, just like the Greenhouse Gases are in our atmosphere (though granted, water vapor obviously wouldn't be evenly distributed).

CO2 lets in most of the incoming solar radiation (broad spectrum) that heats Earth's surface, yet prevent part of the outgoing thermal (infrared) radiation from escaping to space, thus trapping some of the surface heat energy.

At present, roughly 30% of the incoming solar radiation is reflected back to space by the clouds, aerosols, and the surface of Earth. Without naturally occurring greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be near 0°F (or -18°C) instead of the much warmer 59°F (15°C).

A few points to consider...

CO2 does not distribute uniformly. Its concentrations are higher over industrialized nations.

The earths surface does not absorb solar radiation and re-emit thermal radiation at the same rate everywhere. Consider that ice reflects most of the solar radiation back into space without absorbing it. Darker areas (jungles and forests) tend to absorb solar radiation and re-emit it in the infrared band. The oceans and clouds also affect how radiation is absorbed. This means that the amount of heating and cooling is different for different regions.

We're not talking about big differences here. They're small.

These small differences set up localized changes in the cooling and heating of the earth's surface, its atmosphere and ocean currents causing changing global weather patterns. That is where the localized weather effects come in.
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Gil
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PostMon Dec 22, 2008 12:58 pm 
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Hi, everyone! Still at it, eh?

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Friends help the miles go easier.
Klahini
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MtnGoat
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PostMon Dec 22, 2008 1:09 pm 
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Heck yes. this is good solid fun.

For interesting reading, one might go do some reading on the baseline CO2 claims for the last couple centuries. It turns out some old timers were measuring CO2 fairly rigorously for longer than I had thought and there appears to me to be a decent basis to question the claim that CO2 has never been higher in recent times than it is now, or at least that the claimed 'pre industrial' baseline is artificially low...which makes current levels appear to be more of an increase.

Hystericist Bill McKibben has been claiming it's all over at 350, but I read somewhere last night it has skirted that or exceeded it in several proxies in the last several hundred years..and the telling point...it has always *lagged* high temps...and to my knowledge there is not *one* case of CO2 rises leading temps.

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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straydog
slave to a monolith



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slave to a monolith
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 1:47 pm 
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MtnGoat wrote:
Heck yes. this is good solid fun.

For interesting reading, one might go do some reading on the baseline CO2 claims for the last couple centuries. It turns out some old timers were measuring CO2 fairly rigorously for longer than I had thought and there appears to me to be a decent basis to question the claim that CO2 has never been higher in recent times than it is now, or at least that the claimed 'pre industrial' baseline is artificially low...which makes current levels appear to be more of an increase.

Hystericist Bill McKibben has been claiming it's all over at 350, but I read somewhere last night it has skirted that or exceeded it in several proxies in the last several hundred years..and the telling point...it has always *lagged* high temps...and to my knowledge there is not *one* case of CO2 rises leading temps.

If I were to venture a guess (it is a guess), if the high CO2 levels were spikes and did not persist, there may not have been enough time to see any signficant effect on temperatures. The high levels being seen now are persisting and appear to be having a measurable effect on temperatures.

Seems like Bill McKibbens claims might be a bit of a reach. I don't know how anyone can put a specific number out there at this point... too many variables and the models aren't that good yet.
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Mtn Dog
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PostMon Dec 22, 2008 2:30 pm 
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straydog wrote:
The data I'm refering to is looking at a longer timeline. To really understand if the current changes are unique and global, they've had to look at historical data from all over the world. To establish global patterns going back to (and before) the last ice age, they've used a variety of sources including polar and glacial ice cores, tree ring analysis, peat moss swamps and others.

With this data, they've been able to establish that the changes that have occured since the begining of the industrial age are truely unique in that the rate and amount of change in greenhouse gasses (CO2 is only one of them) has been more extreme than at any other time in history.

Thank you for the explanation, Straydog.  I understand how proxy data is used to reestablish earth's historical temperatures and CO2 levels, which have always lagged warming trends historically as Mtn Goat pointed out.  And I also appreciate the CO2 distribution being somewhat uneven along with albedo reflecting sunlight at different rates.  That makes sense now.  So what I would like from you at this point is to tell the story with numbers.  A change of X in CO2 results in what change in heating and subsequent temperature and why?  This is what the whole human impact comes down to and should be easy to explain if in fact we are affecting our climate.

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Footprints on the sands of time will never be made sitting down.
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straydog
slave to a monolith



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slave to a monolith
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 3:45 pm 
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Mtn Dog wrote:
straydog wrote:
The data I'm refering to is looking at a longer timeline. To really understand if the current changes are unique and global, they've had to look at historical data from all over the world. To establish global patterns going back to (and before) the last ice age, they've used a variety of sources including polar and glacial ice cores, tree ring analysis, peat moss swamps and others.

With this data, they've been able to establish that the changes that have occured since the begining of the industrial age are truely unique in that the rate and amount of change in greenhouse gasses (CO2 is only one of them) has been more extreme than at any other time in history.

Thank you for the explanation, Straydog.  I understand how proxy data is used to reestablish earth's historical temperatures and CO2 levels, which have always lagged warming trends historically as Mtn Goat pointed out.  And I also appreciate the CO2 distribution being somewhat uneven along with albedo reflecting sunlight at different rates.  That makes sense now.  So what I would like from you at this point is to tell the story with numbers.  A change of X in CO2 results in what change in heating and subsequent temperature and why?  This is what the whole human impact comes down to and should be easy to explain if in fact we are affecting our climate.

First, it's probably worth mentioning that CO2 is just one of the "greenhouse gasses", and that's it's been the focus of GW because it's the one that we have the most control over.

Next, the relationship between CO2 increases and temperature increases is logarithmic. There appears to be a consensus that the range of increase is between 1.5 and 5 degrees Celsius everytime the CO2 concentration doubles.

However, it has been difficult to arrive at a precise number in that range because we are in a constant state of transition and there has been no chance for a equilibrium to be reached to allow a precise validation. Influences arising from air pollution, trace gases other than carbon dioxide, solar activity, and volcanic activity also have an effect on the ability to establish greater precision.

Between 1900 and 2000, atmospheric CO2 increased from about 295 to 365 ppm (global average). Given that we should have seen an increase of between .5 and 1.7 degrees C. This seems to agree with observational data, but to the lower end of the scale so far; temperatures increased about 0.57 degrees C during that period. The overall trend of increasing temperatures indicates that the increase we've seen is not likely to be due to other factors.

One thing that is still not known, is if there is some kind of "tipping point" at which the ecologic systems cannot keep up the increases in CO2 which might cause the temperature increase to move to the higher end of the scale. Some believe that some buffering has occured, reducing the temperature increases we've experienced so far.
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Rich Baldwin
Mister Eddie



Joined: 21 Dec 2001
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Mister Eddie
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 7:53 pm 
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I don't think this thread is controversial enough yet.

Global warming is caused by cotton-wearing, gun-toting, cairn-building, flag-hanging dogs who post spray about politics, AND they hate kitties!

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Was you ever bit by a dead bee?
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straydog
slave to a monolith



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slave to a monolith
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 7:57 pm 
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Yes... the question is should we run to them, away from them, congratulate them, marry them, or hang them?  dizzy.gif
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
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Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostMon Dec 22, 2008 8:02 pm 
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Well, when you are freezing your buns off because you dassn't get too close to the fire in your oil based polyester gewgaw  clothes, my cotton wearing dog can snuggle right up to the fire and cook his kitty on a stick.  Maybe dip the kittie in some batter first.  Batter up little kitty? eek.gif

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Klapton
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PostTue Dec 23, 2008 8:30 am 
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When are they going to outlaw aerobic exercise?  People who exercise expel WAY more CO2 than people who are sedentary.  Although, I try to make up for it by producing more methane.  So perhaps it all evens out?
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RayD
the griz ate my pass



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the griz ate my pass
PostTue Dec 23, 2008 3:28 pm 
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Quote:
I don't think this thread is controversial enough yet.


I see a "dog vs dog" controversy developing here.  lol.gif
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touron
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PostTue Dec 23, 2008 4:06 pm 
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If chili con carne is outlawed, only outlaws will eat chili con carne.

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Touron is a nougat of Arabic origin made with almonds and honey or sugar, without which it would just not be Christmas in Spain.
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