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drm
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drm
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PostThu Nov 16, 2017 10:51 am 
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Hmm, 1 event in 10 years  would suggest that Houston is 1/200th of our Hurricane-prone coast (2000 years divided by 10 years), which extends from the Texas/Mexico border all the way through New England. Doesn't sound unreasonable to me. Of course the risk is not equal all the way along, but if we are talking metro Houston, it seems plausible. Remember that we're not just talking about any hurricane strike, but one that is slow moving enough to drop that much precip.
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thunderhead
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PostThu Nov 16, 2017 12:14 pm 
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Remember that we're not just talking about any hurricane strike, but one that is slow moving enough to drop that much precip.

True.  But at the same time, a tropical storm that is moving slow can also do the job, such as Allison. Houston area gets hit by a lot of hurricanes.  Something like one per 6 years or so.  Even more frequent if you include TSes.

It definitely counts for a lot more than 1 in 200 US hurricane strikes.  Probably closer to 1 in 10.  Maybe 1 in 20.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/strikes_us.jpg
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drm
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PostThu Nov 16, 2017 2:26 pm 
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Really, I do not know how he came up with the figures he used and this difference doesn't strike me as the kind of extreme and ridiculous error that is in any way comparable to that silly video as you suggested originally. He may have other criteria that need to be met that I haven't seen described. The paper was in a respected peer reviewed journal and he is a highly respected expert on hurricanes. That doesn't mean he can't be wrong, but though your concern seems valid I would need to find out all the details before saying saying with any confidence that it is wrong. You really can't say that from reading an article from some kind of press department, you have to dig into the original paper to see exactly what the methodology was.

I would add that just as the most recent study about whether or not coffee is healthy is not the last word on that issue, neither is this study the last word on climate change-induced hurricane flood risk. It is one more little piece of the puzzle that hundreds of scientists are working on constantly.
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drm
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PostMon Nov 27, 2017 3:12 pm 
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Another study dealing with the increase in major rainstorms.

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Mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of ~100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years (1), causing fatalities and economic losses. However, their poor representation in traditional climate models hampers the understanding of their change in the future. Here, a North American-scale convec-tion-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs is used to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5 (ref. 5). A storm-tracking algorithm indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America. Furthermore, the combined effect of a 15–40% increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80% increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focussed in a 40km radius around the storm centre. These typically neglected increases substantially raise future flood risk. Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate-adaptation practices.

The forecasts apply to a 4-5 degree Celsius temperature increase by 2100, which is the "business as usual" scenario (i.e. we don't really do anything to cut greenhouse emissions).

Links to the study and to an article about it in Scientific American.
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MtnGoat
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PostTue Dec 05, 2017 11:01 am 
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We'd better get on that 4-5 C increase, we're down to only 83 years to see 6-8X the warming than has occurred in the last few hundred years, all packed into the next 83.

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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PostTue Dec 05, 2017 6:02 pm 
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Climate change: how a warming world is a threat to our food supplies

Wheat, one of the world’s most important crops, is being threatened by climate change

Climate Change May Reduce Some U.S. Grain Harvests by Half


Record cereal production leading to record end-season inventories in 2017/18


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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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PostMon May 07, 2018 8:34 am 
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A new study suggests those skeptical about climate change and climate alarmism behave in more climate-friendly ways than do those who are very concerned about the issue.

University of Michigan psychology graduate student Michael Hall‘s study looked at 600 Americans who “regularly reported their climate change beliefs, pro-environmental behavior, and other climate-change related measures.”

The results, published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, divided subjects into three categories: the “Skeptical,” the “Cautiously Worried,” and the “Highly Concerned.” As you might expect, the “Skeptical” were most opposed to government climate policies; however, they were also “most likely to report engaging in individual-level pro-environmental behaviors” (emphasis added).

On the other hand, the “Highly Concerned,” while very supportive of government action on climate, were the least likely to behave in eco-friendly way

Not particularly surprising results

Moral liscense

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Tom
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PostMon May 07, 2018 9:31 am 
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It's reassuring you could be more inclined to live and breathe pro-environmental behaviors. wink.gif

Here's another perspective:  Link

Quote:
Conclusion

We have identified four recommended actions which we believe to be especially effective in reducing an individual's greenhouse gas emissions: having one fewer child, living car-free, avoiding airplane travel, and eating a plant-based diet. These suggestions contrast with other top recommendations found in the literature such as hang-drying clothing or driving a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Our results show that education and government documents do not focus on high-impact actions for reducing emissions, creating a mitigation gap between official recommendations and individuals willing to align their behaviour with climate targets. Focusing on high-impact actions (through providing accurate guidance and information, especially to 'catalytic' individuals such as adolescents) could be an important dimension of scaling bottom-up action to the transformative decarbonisation implied by the 2 °C climate target, and starting to close this gap.
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MtnGoat
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PostMon May 07, 2018 11:17 am 
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Isn't it though?

I'm all about the environment..including not wasting resources, to fix non problems.  cool.gif

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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PostThu May 10, 2018 1:17 pm 
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At least they're trying, so intentionally inflicting economic harm is acceptable even if you don't produce the results promised. But that doesn't keep 'em from moving the goalposts downward...


Quote:
On Monday, the NDP announced the 2020 target was being replaced with a 40 per cent reduction of 2007 levels by 2030, as part of a new Climate Change Accountability Act.

"The previous government, after stalling on sustained climate action for several years, admitted they could not meet their 2020 target, and those targets are repealed in this act," said a statement released by Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy George Heyman.

accountability.  rolleyes.gif

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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PostFri May 11, 2018 1:05 pm 
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UN climate officials add a week-long session in Bangkok in September to the diary, as Bonn talks make insufficient progress on the Paris Agreement rulebook

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Stalemate around the differentiation of commitments between rich and poor countries remains a problem, said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

I'll bet there's a difference of opinion all right. The rich nations want to limit their payments to the poor ones yet lock them into more expensive, unreliable green energy, while standing in the way of conventional, cheap power expansion...at the cost of millions of lives per year in the poor nations.

So, another confab with another 53 lbs of carbon per air mile per participant, another set of 'commitments' to not meet, and be sure get into the buffet line for more lobster tail.

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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gb
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gb
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PostSat Jul 07, 2018 8:52 am 
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Numerous all-time record temperatures set in many places around the globe this past week as detailed in this article:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/7/5/1777626/-Red-hot-planet-All-time-heat-records-have-been-set-all-over-the-world-during-the-past-week?detail=emaildkre
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MtnGoat
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PostWed Jul 11, 2018 9:26 am 
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The Energy Information Administration sees U.S. crude output averaging 11.8 million barrels a day in 2019, up from its 11.76 million barrel a day estimate in the June outlook.

“In 2019, EIA forecasts that the United States will average nearly 12 million barrels of crude oil production per day,” said Linda Capuano, Administrator of the EIA. “If the forecast holds, that would make the U.S. the world’s leading producer of crude.”

U.S. Is Set to Become World’s Top Oil Producer

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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PostMon Jul 23, 2018 8:51 am 
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Under the 'duh' category (along with the larger footprint of maintaining *two* power systems, one boutique (green) and the other mandatory (standard plants)), a fundamental economic  problem with the storage ideas to make 'green' sources sort of function more like reliable ones...

Quote:
Energy storage (batteries and other ways of storing electricity, like pumped water, compressed air, or molten salt) has generally been hailed as a “green” technology, key to enabling more renewable energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

But energy storage has a dirty secret. The way it’s typically used in the US today, it enables more fossil-fueled energy and higher carbon emissions. Emissions are higher today than they would have been if no storage had ever been deployed in the US.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/27/17283830/batteries-energy-storage-carbon-emissions


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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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gb
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gb
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PostTue Jul 31, 2018 12:00 pm 
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Enough with Goat's nonsense.

Video detailing massive heat waves around the globe this year
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