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MtnGoat Member
Joined: 17 Dec 2001 Posts: 11992 | TRs | Pics Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:12 pm
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CC wrote: | So sayeth the Right Reverend Goat of The Church of Ayn.
Great video from Heartland though, they are always good for a laugh. I especially liked the upclose CO2 meter. It would have been way better in 3D though.
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I could not ask for a better demonstration of the lack of an actual argument.
Substituting snark for valid logic isn't necessary when you're not backing ideas which leave you in that unenviable position.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:30 am
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thunderhead wrote: | Quote: | Concerns of young protesters are justified... |
ahahahahahahahahahahahaha
ahahahah
ahahahahahahahahahaha
I guess when you can't win on evidence, you find a crying child. |
Actually, you just post hahaha a bunch of times. I think that counts as evidence free.
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9513 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:37 am
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This thread is a bit like the evolution vs creation science / intelligent design debate. Nobody is going to rethink their position and interpret new evidence in ways to support their position if they can and dismissing or ignoring evidence that runs contrary to their position.
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Parked Out Member
Joined: 18 Sep 2011 Posts: 508 | TRs | Pics Location: Port Angeles, WA |
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Malachai Constant Member
Joined: 13 Jan 2002 Posts: 16093 | TRs | Pics Location: Back Again Like A Bad Penny |
RandyHiker wrote: | This thread is a bit like the evolution vs creation science / intelligent design debate. Nobody is going to rethink their position and interpret new evidence in ways to support their position if they can and dismissing or ignoring evidence that runs contrary to their position. |
Glad you are finally realising that it is pointless to argue with a rock.
"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:53 pm
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RandyHiker wrote: | This thread is a bit like the evolution vs creation science / intelligent design debate. Nobody is going to rethink their position and interpret new evidence in ways to support their position if they can and dismissing or ignoring evidence that runs contrary to their position. |
I like to think that some lurkers read it and get value from seeing updates here. So I'm not too much interested in debates at this point in the process, been there, done that, but there have been some here that have been substantive.
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Parked Out Member
Joined: 18 Sep 2011 Posts: 508 | TRs | Pics Location: Port Angeles, WA |
Interesting factoid... I watched this video last night on what it would take to go 100% solar for the US's energy needs. The video isn't very sophisticated but it's not terrible. He makes the point that we would have to dedicate only 0.5% of the US land base, or about 12 million acres, to PV solar installations. I don't think he said where he got that number, maybe from Mark Jacobson? Anyway, 12 million acres is a lot or a little, but either way it's roughly 13 times the area occupied by the US interstate highway system.
Always helpful to put these things in perspective.
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:03 pm
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Clearly that's a lot of land area, about 80% the size of West Virginia, for another comparison. But were we to actually try for 100% solar, a lot of it would be going on top of structures, so it would not be solar dedicated land. Of course even the biggest solar advocates aren't calling for 100%
And if we were to go 100% nuclear, we would generate about 10,000 metric tons of waste per year. I'm not too concerned with how much space that would take, but how long is it dangerous for - above low-level background rates? Can it all be reprocessed in theory, or are any high level wastes not reusable?
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9513 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:51 pm
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I think 100% solutions are proposed by two kinds of people: 1) idealistic dreamers unconcerned with whether the solution is achievable in practical terms. 2) Status quo proponents who wish to demonstrate that doing anything other than current practice is unworkable.
IME it gets progressively more expensive the closer to 100% you try to get in any area (not just non fossil fuel energy sources) so that achieving 80% can cost a 10th of 90% and 90% a 10th of 99% and 99% a 10th of 100%.
E.g. When I was restoring my vintage motorhome I installed 400 watts of solar panels and standard lead acid batteries to the original capacity. This gives me enough battery capacity to go three days without sun to run the propane furnace, led lights and appliances without sun. I also bought a small propane generator (700 watts) to recharge the batteries to handle long periods without sun.
If I tried to go 100% solar I would have needed to buy many more batteries and need to use 5x more expensive Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries to get the capacity needed in the available space.
Ironically living full time in the Motorhome since Thanksgiving I haven't once had to fire up the propane generator to keep the batteries topped up, but I think last December/January was sunnier than normal, the RV was in storage in Feburary while I was in BC and NYC and I've been in Baja since then.
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Parked Out Member
Joined: 18 Sep 2011 Posts: 508 | TRs | Pics Location: Port Angeles, WA |
drm wrote: | Clearly that's a lot of land area, about 80% the size of West Virginia, for another comparison. But were we to actually try for 100% solar, a lot of it would be going on top of structures, so it would not be solar dedicated land. Of course even the biggest solar advocates aren't calling for 100% |
For 'fun' I went to a 2015 paper by Mark Jacobson and used the numbers he provides for his 100% WWS plan for the US. In his vision, even when you exclude rooftop pv, the remaining solar footprint is 36,000 square km. This is for solar meeting 45% of US 2050 demand plus some extra to service peaking & storage. Jacobson ranked #26 in Onalytica's top 100 "future of energy influencers" that just came out, and a lot of people take his work very seriously (personally I think he's 100% out to lunch).
100 percent WWS land use
drm wrote: | And if we were to go 100% nuclear, we would generate about 10,000 metric tons of waste per year. I'm not too concerned with how much space that would take, but how long is it dangerous for - above low-level background rates? Can it all be reprocessed in theory, or are any high level wastes not reusable? |
Fair question that I can't answer, but the Wikipedia entry for fast reactors covers it pretty well. I don't know what the current outlook is for growth of this type of reactor beyond what's in the article. Looks like there are only two of any size in operation, both in Russia, and two more under construction in India & China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast-neutron_reactor
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Parked Out Member
Joined: 18 Sep 2011 Posts: 508 | TRs | Pics Location: Port Angeles, WA |
RandyHiker wrote: | I think 100% solutions are proposed by two kinds of people: 1) idealistic dreamers unconcerned with whether the solution is achievable in practical terms. |
I would put Jacobson squarely in this category, but that's far from how he represents himself and not how his many followers see him.
RandyHiker wrote: | IME it gets progressively more expensive the closer to 100% you try to get in any area (not just non fossil fuel energy sources) so that achieving 80% can cost a 10th of 90% and 90% a 10th of 99% and 99% a 10th of 100%. |
I agree with you on cost, mostly as it relates to intermittent sources though. But the footprint question here should be proportional for utility scale installations. In Jacobson's plan he calls for about 78 million rooftop installations, and then the 36,000 sq km of utility scale is on top of that, and this is for 45% solar (the rest being mostly wind & hydro). In other words, cut the solar penetration back to 25% and you're still looking at a footprint approaching five times the area of the interstate highway system. Vast and vastly expensive.
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9513 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
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Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:24 am
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Parked Out Member
Joined: 18 Sep 2011 Posts: 508 | TRs | Pics Location: Port Angeles, WA |
The article talks about unusually thin ice on the Kuskokwim near Bethel this year. The spring breakup record at Bethel goes back to 1924 - interesting that removing the 2019 data point is all it takes to show no significant trend over the preceding 94 years.
https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupDB
Kuskokwim breakup history
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Parked Out Member
Joined: 18 Sep 2011 Posts: 508 | TRs | Pics Location: Port Angeles, WA |
One of my favorite ski films, and I've always wondered about the origin of the audio clip at the beginning - someone describing the hardships of Eskimos experiencing an unseasonably warm winter.
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Sculpin Member
Joined: 23 Apr 2015 Posts: 1383 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin
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Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:30 pm
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Parked Out wrote: | no significant trend over the preceding 94 years. |
A single trend line fails to capture what happened. North America was still cold in the 1880s and '90s from the Little Ice Age cooling. People actually froze to death in the Dakotas after running out of firewood in deep snow. Then it warmed up rapidly, reaching a peak around the time of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. From there temps dropped a bit into the '60s and 70s (Time Magazine featured a cover about the coming Ice Age), but not back to the cold from the previous century. Since the early '80s it has warmed steadily, but don't forget that both 2010 and 2011 were very cold years here when the glaciers advanced.
Anyway, the Kuskokwim meltout data actually shows this basic trend, around May 6 in the 1930s during the Dust Bowl, out to May 15 or so during the cooling in the 1970s, then back into the first week of May now.
Global average temperature over this time interval does look a bit different from North America alone.
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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