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Randito
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Randito
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 Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:41 am |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | Besides, no humans anywhere live in a 'global' temperature. They live in regional ones. And if stone age people, or civilized people later, lived in 'regional' areas with hotter temps for longer already, then there's the issue..they and the flora and fauna survived. |
You glossed over my point that mere survival of the human species isn't the goal we need to be thinking about -- rather the goal needs to be preserving civilized society.
I don't believe human survival is in question -- we are a pretty adaptable species and as long as more than few hundred human's survive the species will continue.
But I think it is desirable to avoid major disruptions to the economy and our social structure.
A 3C rise is global temperatures won't wipe out humans -- but it will certainly cost trillions in displacement, lost infrastructure, famines, etc.
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:56 am |
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| RandyHiker wrote: | | You glossed over my point that mere survival of the human species isn't the goal we need to be thinking about -- rather the goal needs to be preserving civilized society.
I don't believe human survival is in question -- we are a pretty adaptable species and as long as more than few hundred human's survive the species will continue.
But I think it is desirable to avoid major disruptions to the economy and our social structure.
A 3C rise is global temperatures won't wipe out humans -- but it will certainly cost trillions in displacement, lost infrastructure, famines, etc. |
Of course it's not in question. They not only didn't perish, they thrived in better temperatures. The most deadly temperature environment to humans is not heat. It is cold, where far more perish. People adapt if you let them, but not if you demand fealty to some 'experts' plans.
A 3C rise is fantasy from folks who didn't even get predictions of the past correct. Double fantasy since it relies upon a ridiculous coefficient when the claims of the temp sensitivity have been falling ever since they started making the catastrophe claims.
We don't need saving from capitalism, or actual cooperation, during the natural event of changing climate. We need saving from our would be central planners, who will once again demonstrate Hayek's observation of truth, and in doing so harming all the little people the most.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Doppelganger
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Tom
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Tom
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Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:19 pm |
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| Quote: | | A 3C rise is fantasy from folks who didn't even get predictions of the past correct. |
Which faux claim are regurgitating now?
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Randito
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Randito
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Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:34 pm |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | A 3C rise is fantasy from folks who didn't even get predictions of the past correct. Double fantasy since it relies upon a ridiculous coefficient when the claims of the temp sensitivity have been falling ever since they started making the catastrophe claims. |
So you are still dodging the core question of how disruptive climate change will be to the economy and society.
1st you just said "humans will survive, because it has been warmer in the past"
Now you are saying "it's not going to warm that much". -- Which is back to the whole "It's not happening denial" Previously you dismissed the "Hockey Stick" graph as part of your "It's not happening" mantra.
This Skeptical Science blog post puts forth a lot of data showing that the "hockey stick" can't be dismissed as casually as you like
https://skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm
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thunderhead
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Assuming no significant switch away from fossil fuels we will probably pass +3C around 2080. This will not cause crop loss(the warming is being caused by plant food), but it will cause some coastal mitigation costs as sea levels rise. I could see that passing a trillion 2019 dollars.
Keep in mind some gnd type proposals would cost vastly more... doing far more damage than the global warming they hope to solve.
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thunderhead
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I should emphasize that is land surface temperatures. Oceans temps are not passing +3 C this century. Probably not ever.
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Randito
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Randito
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Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:02 pm |
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:19 pm |
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| RandyHiker wrote: | | So you are still dodging the core question of how disruptive climate change will be to the economy and society.
1st you just said "humans will survive, because it has been warmer in the past"
Now you are saying "it's not going to warm that much". -- Which is back to the whole "It's not happening denial" Previously you dismissed the "Hockey Stick" graph as part of your "It's not happening" mantra.
This Skeptical Science blog post puts forth a lot of data showing that the "hockey stick" can't be dismissed as casually as you like
https://skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm |
Did you ask me about that core question? Not directly, no. I cannot read your mind to know what you want to switch to now so that you can't claim I'm dodging something. (Ok, maybe, making such arguments is the point...and clarity is not. )
It will be as disruptive as it has ever been, and given the actual rates of change, you let people adapt with it just as they always have been. There is nothing outside the range of natural variation here, and we do not need central planning to fix a non problem.
1) Humans will survive, because it's been hotter in the past. *TRUE*. Even your non falsifying source agreed it has been hotter, and we demonstrably survived. And I argue, thrived.
2) Now I am saying that the 3C number is ludicrous, given the continual fall in the sensitivity estimate and the abject failure to meet past predictions, or even predict anything useful, like the pause. No, post processing of older claims vs newer data does not count as legitimate prediction, especially when the trend has been slowly upwards for well over a century, including some time periods with as steep a jump as the modern times are claimed to be.
Neither of these arguments contradicts the other, so there's no issue there.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Randito
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Randito
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Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:28 pm |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | RandyHiker wrote: | | So you are still dodging the core question of how disruptive climate change will be to the economy and society.
1st you just said "humans will survive, because it has been warmer in the past"
Now you are saying "it's not going to warm that much". -- Which is back to the whole "It's not happening denial" Previously you dismissed the "Hockey Stick" graph as part of your "It's not happening" mantra.
This Skeptical Science blog post puts forth a lot of data showing that the "hockey stick" can't be dismissed as casually as you like
https://skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm |
Did you ask me about that core question? Not directly, no. I cannot read your mind to know what you want to switch to now so that you can't claim I'm dodging something. (Ok, maybe, making such arguments is the point...and clarity is not. )
It will be as disruptive as it has ever been, and given the actual rates of change, you let people adapt with it just as they always have been. There is nothing outside the range of natural variation here, and we do not need central planning to fix a non problem.
1) Humans will survive, because it's been hotter in the past. *TRUE*. Even your non falsifying source agreed it has been hotter, and we demonstrably survived. And I argue, thrived.
2) Now I am saying that the 3C number is ludicrous, given the continual fall in the sensitivity estimate and the abject failure to meet past predictions, or even predict anything useful, like the pause. No, post processing of older claims vs newer data does not count as legitimate prediction, especially when the trend has been slowly upwards for well over a century, including some time periods with as steep a jump as the modern times are claimed to be.
Neither of these arguments contradicts the other, so there's no issue there. |
Your entire response is just a repeat of your prior post -- no addressing of the issue of how disruptive the climate change will be to society. Perhaps you simply don't care as you don't expect to live beyond 2050 anyway.
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:17 am |
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We seem to have a fundamental issue here. You complained I didn't address the issue of disruption.
I stated
| Quote: | | It will be as disruptive as it has ever been, and given the actual rates of change, you let people adapt with it just as they always have been. There is nothing outside the range of natural variation here, and we do not need central planning to fix a non problem. |
Then, you complain I didn't address the issue of disruption, which I directly addressed. If addressing it directly, isn't good enough, then you're not being clear in what you expect.
There is very little in life which is static, and especially in economics, farming, and production. Continual disruption and change at all levels for myriad reasons, is the constant already. This is what markets handle by themselves, with zero need for imposed planning on the details.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:19 am |
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Earlier there was an argument claiming that the idea that AGW is a political hobbyhorse is 'conspiracy', or some such.
Meanwhile...
| Quote: | | “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal, is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all,” Chakrabarti said to Inslee’s climate director, Sam Ricketts, according to a Washington Post reporter who attended the meeting for a profile published Wednesday.
“Do you guys think of it as a climate thing?” Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing,” he added. |
The intentional use of a claimed environmental catastrophe as cover for political goals.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Tom
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Tom
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Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:36 am |
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You realize that has been posted already right, including the Post article with full context?
FWIW, I don't know how you tackle climate change without addressing how you change the economy.
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Randito
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Randito
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Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:49 am |
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IMHO: MtnGoat keeps reposting the same denialist stuff because he doesn't care what happens to human society past 2050.
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