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gb
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gb
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 Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:01 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Gb the us averaged drought severity is quite relevant as the westerly longwaves you talk about are about of the same size as the 48 states. If they were changing much we would see it. We dont.
Furthermore you can break it down by region or even single stations and see no change either. The relevant precip data is already posted. |
Lots of disjointed and inaccurate words. You no change in drought "We don't see it.
Reality: Changes in drought at US meteorological stations:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581816300842
Bottomline: | Quote: | | New hydrological insights for the region
The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010) exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era), and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. |
The last part of which says the droughts are happening in the same places they always have - they are just much worse. We are seeing it.
History of recent record California drought: California drought of 2011-2017 worst ever
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thunderhead
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| Quote: | | The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010) exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s |
Just making up lies now. There is not a single actual data source that is anywhere near such a ridiculous claim.
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:59 pm |
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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thunderhead
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Basically that paper did this:
"All the normal interpretations of drought and precip data show no significant trend over time, and we wanted desperately to find a trend, so we screwed with the data in obscure ways till we found a trend"
Worse drought now than the dust bowl. Lol. Trash.
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Ski
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Ski
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:19 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Worse drought now than the dust bowl. |
that is a bit of a stretch.
the little village my father was born in, Vincent, Texas, literally blew away in the dust storms of the 1930s.
he had a hell of a time getting a passport later on.
I don't recall any whole towns blowing away in the wind lately.... at least not on this continent.
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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gb
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gb
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:20 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Quote: | | The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010) exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s |
Just making up lies now. There is not a single actual data source that is anywhere near such a ridiculous claim. |
Yes you are making up lies. I agree. The author of the peer reviewed paper clearly published what his data showed.
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thunderhead
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You keep whining about California drought, gb, but the actual data shows no significant trend in precip there. Perhaps you forgot that 2 winters ago they had a very wet wet season.
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gb
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gb
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:26 pm |
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Ski
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Ski
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:35 pm |
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| gb wrote: | | "...disprove that the increase in CO2 is primarily of anthropomorphic origin...." |
like I said before: this thread provides an endless source of entertainment.
that is actually kind of funny in a twisted way.
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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Randito
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Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:36 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | |
You keep whining about California drought, gb, but the actual data shows no significant trend in precip there. Perhaps you forgot that 2 winters ago they had a very wet wet season. |
November to March seems like a strange measurement period for precipitation for analyzing long term treads.
For SNOTEL the "water year" starts and ends on October 1st.
I wonder what your chart looks like if the full years data is included?
Also -- for a discussion of trends -- why doesn't your chart include a trend line?
FWIW: A friend of mine does weather forecasting for California almond growers -- many of them have halved the number of trees they have in their orchards in response to drought.
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thunderhead
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| Quote: | | Goat's "study" is an opinion piece by some ragmuffin. |
Perhaps you shouldnt have just quoted something that claimed the us is worse off now than the dust bowl if you are going to make that argument.
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Ski
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Ski
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:42 pm |
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| RandyHiker wrote: | | I wonder what your chart looks like if the full years data is included? |
It would probably reflect the reality that the almond farmers are experiencing down there.
Or maybe it's just because they're diverting all the water into the Pacific Ocean. 
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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gb
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gb
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:45 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | |
You keep whining about California drought, gb, but the actual data shows no significant trend in precip there. Perhaps you forgot that 2 winters ago they had a very wet wet season. |
You dishonestly posted a graph that showed from Nov to Mar California had a very wet season in 2017. What BS. In fact Mammoth Ski Patrol's site showed that in the month of February they got about 200" of snowfall but that the rest of the fall-winter they had basically below average months (this from memory as I skied in the Sierra as I have done many times in May of 2017). But even that spring, snowpack observations of mine and of the state of California showed mediocre snowpacks south of Mammoth. There was not enough snow to ski south of the Palisades at all. As I recall that very good year had snowpack depths that the state of California showed to be 60-40% of normal as you moved south of Mammoth.
In any case the drought in California was from 2011 to that single month in 2017. The worst years of 2013-14 broke all drought records all the way back to the first records in 1885. It was record drought. It has now gone back to a state of drought in many parts of California and of course throughout the Great Basin. http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=COURSES.05 Did you ski at Taos last winter?
Edited: At Mammoth, which is a good proxy for Sierra maximum snowfall, there were two months - heavy snowfall began January 4th and pretty much was all done by February 25th.
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thunderhead
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Valid point randy. I looked briefly for a better graph that included the whole year AND was as up to date as possible, and that was the best i found after a brief search. Theres only so much effort (about 45 seconds) that i am willing to devote to finding data for gb that he probably wont understand or pay attention to.
That is the wet season in cali so its quite close to yearly totals, but is not perfect. They dont get much precip outside that period.
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gb
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gb
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:46 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Quote: | | Goat's "study" is an opinion piece by some ragmuffin. |
Perhaps you shouldnt have just quoted something that claimed the us is worse off now than the dust bowl if you are going to make that argument. |
I posted a scientifically reviewed paper. You just were incapable of reading it so you pretend it was my statement.
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