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Chief Joseph
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PostThu Jun 03, 2010 3:01 pm 
In addition possibly the pine beetles have become more resistant to lower temperatures?

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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Slugman
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PostThu Jun 03, 2010 3:17 pm 
HC: Your link merely says that every single person in the world isn't on board. The closest anyone comes to saying that global warming isn't to blame is this: "It's more complicated than that". Hardly a refutation. The guy, Dave Thom, then says "it's not as clear as others suggest". Again, not a refutation in any way. He then displays a remarkable ignorance of global warming. He says "That phenomenon can happen regardless of a few degrees of change in climate, measured on a global scale." Anyone who knows anything about climate can tell you that even though the earth may heat up one degree overall, the effects are not spread evenly around the world and around the calendar year. Some areas would see huge amounts of warming, some less so, some no change at all, and some areas might be cooler, as weather patterns change. So he says nothing that rules out or in any way even attempts to refute that GW plays a role in the infestation. I agree with treeswarper that over-mature forests have a lot to do with it. There has been a drought in some infested areas, per the link of HC above, and I'm sure that doesn't help. There may well have been insufficient thinning. But it also may be due to warmer winters not keeping the bugs in check as much as in the past. Who really knows? I would be shocked if any one reason turned out to be the culprit exclusive of the others.

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treeswarper
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PostThu Jun 03, 2010 6:06 pm 
A magazine by foresters. There are lots of articles about non-managing forests and the current situation. Articles about fires too http://evergreenmagazine.com/.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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joker
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PostThu Jun 03, 2010 6:52 pm 
Always good to hear from foresters on the topic. I should note that the folks behind the papers I linked to above are also forestry experts. One of the authors of the BC paper (a faculty member of the school of forestry at UBC) also authored another paper that clearly agrees with what grannyhiker and treeswarper have to say here, as well as providing a good analysis suggesting that at least in BC, the story cannot fully be explained by the increasing aged of pine stands: Disturbance Forest Age and Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Dynamics in BC: A Historical Perspective From the paper's abstract:
Quote:
We compared,past and present mountain,pine beetle activity to forest age structure, and projected future forest conditions relevant to mountain pine beetle susceptibility. “Backcast” forest conditions suggest that during the early 1900s, approximately,17% of pine stands were,in age classes susceptible to mountain,pine beetle attack. Since then, the amount of area burned by wildfire in British Columbia has significantly decreased. This reduction in wildfire has resulted in an increase in the average age of pine stands to the present day such that approximately 55% of pine forests are in age classes considered susceptible to mountain pine beetle. At the present rate of disturbance, average stand age is forecast to continue to increase, but the amount of susceptible pine will decline following 2010 and stabilize at about,18% by 2110. The extent of mountain pine beetle outbreaks was correlated with the increase in amount,of susceptible pine during 1920-2000. However, outbreak extent increased at a greater rate than the increase in susceptible forest indicating that other factors such as climate may be affecting mountain pine beetle epidemics.
And the author of both papers also appears to agree with treeswarper in his concluding paragraph from this paper:
Quote:
...in the long term our focus should be on management of lodgepole pine, not on management of the mountain pine beetle...

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Bedivere
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PostSun Jun 06, 2010 11:45 pm 
Spruce beetle infestation is pandemic on the East slopes of the Cascades between about 2000 feet and 4000 feet (give or take some). Not sure why it's contained to that band, but if you go and look you'll see it's true. Drive over Chinook pass and down into the American River valley. Just about every spruce or fir tree in that valley from the pass down towards Naches where pines predominate is dead or damaged. Same thing near Blewett Pass. Drive up to the trailheads in the upper Teanaway area or Ingalls Creek and look at the trees. It's also very obvious at the Phelps creek trailhead off the Chiwawa and in lots of places along the N. Cascades highway East of Rainy Pass. The entire upper Entiat valley is nothing but dead trees now. Some of that is from forest fires, the rest is beetle kill. The altitude limit on this infestation is very visible in some areas. I noticed it's quite obvious at Waptus Lake where the forest is continuous all the way up to the ridgelines yet above a certain elevation line the trees are still green. This tells me that winter temperatures probably do help control these infestations. And what's the deal with people disputing global warming? I just don't get it. Global warming *is* happening. The planet is warming up, average global temperatures are higher now than they were 30 years and more ago. There is a huge mountain of irrefutable evidence to support that it's happening, only the most obstinate, close minded, or willfully ignorant would say that it isn't. These are usually the people that point to a recent cold spell and say "where's you're global warming now?" as if global warming means it will be sunny and warm everywhere all the time. What's causing it is the only thing that can be debated, and for the purposes of this thread and many others, it's irrelevant.

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treeswarper
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PostMon Jun 07, 2010 5:25 am 
One reason your're seeing it more now is that until 20 years ago, those trees would have been cut and sent down the road on trucks. Bugs have always been in the woods. It is just that those trees used to be cut before they deteriorated and became a hazard. Salvage became a bad word--another succssful campaign by the No Cut groups and it just can't be done anymore on National Forest. A salvage sale is put up, goes through appeals, then to court and by then the wood is rotted.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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