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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostSun Jan 25, 2015 9:14 pm 
This entire thread appears to be largely unnecessary, but please, keep feeding the troll...

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Schenk
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PostMon Jan 26, 2015 9:51 am 
There was a skier triggered slide in bounds at Schweitzer this weekend. Lesson: in the right conditions an avalanche can occur anywhere, even in bounds. Beware the iso-thermal snow pack.

Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
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FUN CH
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PostMon Jan 26, 2015 4:27 pm 
gb wrote:
spamfoote wrote:
dave allyn wrote:
Freeski reminds me of a record with a skip.
Problem is, if his skip gets put into regulation we all have to pay for it till the end of time as bad regulations along with the good ones never get tossed out.
Bad regulation .. how so? dizzy.gif
Excellent question.

'' what did you dream, it's alright we told we told you what to dream....so welcome to the machine'' David Gilmor (pink floyd)
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FUN CH
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PostFri Jan 30, 2015 2:04 pm 
I'm trying to develop a pro vs con list, so any ideas would be appreciated. In my area, NE Cascades we have yet another crust layer and an invesion cloud with recent clear nights. Probable double wammy surface frost formation. If there existed a hazard map that contained recorded data collected from 35 years of near-miss incident reports and observed avalanche reports, imagine how useful this map would be right now.

'' what did you dream, it's alright we told we told you what to dream....so welcome to the machine'' David Gilmor (pink floyd)
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dave allyn
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PostFri Jan 30, 2015 4:33 pm 
Such a hazard map would be crowded and useless. Knowing a certain locale had an avalanche sometime in the last 35 years hardly helps me decide where to travel today.

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FUN CH
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PostFri Jan 30, 2015 7:02 pm 
dave allyn wrote:
Such a hazard map would be crowded and useless. Knowing a certain locale had an avalanche sometime in the last 35 years hardly helps me decide where to travel today.
I imagine an interactive multi-media map simular to the mental maps that are stored in memory and used in intuative reasoning processes. I use them all the time. For example, there is a reason why many locals knew it was wise not to mess with Delancy Ridge last season during all that critical loading over our weak snow layering which wound up producing massive avalanches. The reason is because we've seen simlar situations setup in the past and good people making simular bad choices, including myself. Many of the avalanches produced during that continuous storm cycle, last season, went unobserved, with debris evidence covered up until spring exposed it. Inaccurate conclusions were drawn concerning the step down capability of our snowpack, as disc with friends, as i don't read nwac forecasts-except as directed in order to discuss observations this week. I of course sounded a warning based upon my year long observations, but that conversation was contested. Those observations included wider than average glide cracks on two indicator slopes that I use as well as wider than average moots pulling away from rocks in all of those interfaces that I and friends observed. There were many other observations over the season that are too numberous to relay here. But what I talking about is knowledge and experience that becomes a part of the intuative reasoning process and that constitutes the creative part of avalanche avoidance. But all that doesn't guarentee that I still won't make bad decisions. The avy forecastor up in Canada got it right last year for simular east side conditions and offered some good old school advice. Paraphase: wait and stay off some of those high consequence lines, maybe even wait for another time in the future of some other year. ''i'm not the man they think i am at all, no, no, no. Cause i'm a rocket man, rocket man''. E. John

'' what did you dream, it's alright we told we told you what to dream....so welcome to the machine'' David Gilmor (pink floyd)
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostFri Jan 30, 2015 11:34 pm 
I'm trying to wrap my head around why data from 35 years ago, much less last year is at all useful in assessing risks this year.

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FUN CH
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PostSun Feb 01, 2015 12:29 am 
Bedivere wrote:
I'm trying to wrap my head around why data from 35 years ago, much less last year is at all useful in assessing risks this year.
About 15 years ago i triggered a terrain trap in 10'' of new snow over a melt freeze crust in the 'goat peak' area. We knew the new snow was not bonded well so we opted to ski trees. Before too long, the tree line opened up into a logged clear cut and dumped into a funnel shaped gulley. My first thought by my ego brain was 'nice line' and after my first turn in the trap and still carrying speed from the trees, my intuative brain calmly stated 'avalanche terrain'. Just then, as i was making my third turn and to my right, a crack shot past me. I traversed from my turn and could see that i was moving down the fall line as i was also moving to the right, a dual motion. I skied off of the slab right before it broke up. If i had been turning left instead of right when the crack shot past me, that avalanche would have killed me. Years later i found out that a friend triggered that same spot and had his own near miss experience in 2 feet of slab. Now my question to you is: if you are planning to ski tour 'goat peak' would you want to know where that trap is and plan your tour or do you perfer suprises? Would you gain any knowledge by reading detailed reports on these two near miss incidents and one other-maybe more- on 'goat peak'? That one pinned a lady to a tree and she was in the first stages of hypothermia in the 20 minutes it took her friend to get back up to her and free her. Is it useful to know that the avalanche she triggered almost took out her friend also as he waited below?

'' what did you dream, it's alright we told we told you what to dream....so welcome to the machine'' David Gilmor (pink floyd)
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trestle
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PostSun Feb 01, 2015 7:57 am 
The word that comes to mind, again, is tedious. Yes the information is valuable but who is going to publish and maintain it? You've swung from insisting that anyone with a permit for guiding on public lands provide the information to now sharing personal anecdotes as if they're going to ever be collated in a usable manner. Again, all that you seek is already available if one is willing to research and ask. The freedom of the hills does not include a bright orange WARNING sticker. btw, the Forest Service is completely broke and overwhelmed with a backlog of work, the Park Service is again trimming budgets and altering service, and the State Parks are only surviving thru the sale of Discover passes. Who do you propose pay for the type of massive database you suggest? And it would be massive, more in line with those managed by the USGS rather than the USFS. Before you post anything more, please clarify and be specific about who is going to pay for your proposal. Fees for the concessionaires only get passed to the users, triggering other societal issues. Come up with something else.

"Life favors the prepared." - Edna Mode
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jeff_ward
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PostSun Feb 01, 2015 9:48 am 
Freeski wrote:
In my area, NE Cascades we have yet another crust layer and an invesion cloud with recent clear nights. Probable double wammy surface frost formation. If there existed a hazard map that contained recorded data collected from 35 years of near-miss incident reports and observed avalanche reports, imagine how useful this map would be right now.
You can't really be serious about this. A map of near misses and observed avalanches is not going to tell you where the surface hoar is right now. You need to get off your computer and go into the mountains to look for it. I know this post was just a troll, but you do illustrate a good point on how someone could use this proposed "hazard map" inappropriately. Information without proper context or training could end up being misused and get someone into trouble. That is one of the reasons this information is filtered through the avalanche center, both in the United States and in Canada. We want professional observers sending in unfiltered observations. We don't want them worried about how the public, with varying levels of experience and training, could possibly misuse the information. We just want the observation and then the forecasters can decide how to appropriately deliver it to the public.

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FUN CH
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PostSun Feb 01, 2015 12:24 pm 
Tresle, public tax money already supports commercial private business operating on public land unless you believe that the 3 percent fee that the guide/outfitters pay completely pays for the proportunate cost for forest service buildings, heat, cooling, lights, vehicles, equipment, pay, pensions, health care, etc, etc. Maybe your argument should be for the shutting down of all commercial private business operating on public land to save some cash? But then we would loose all the positive benefits that these businesses bring to local areas and our out door community. What i'm asking for is transparency, that would add zero cost to the tax payer because these systems are already in place and would bring about added public safety benefits. By the way, according to the FS 2002 EA, nchs- our local mountain guides- are required to provide information to the public concerning conditions they are observing in the BC. That language is reflected in both the nch and ncmg special use permits although the nch operating plan, which is written by the outfitter, contains language to the contrary. But rest assured that a few local BC skiers will continue to endure the insults, as we have done in the past, and push forward on these public safety and other conflict issues when these permits come up for renewal. Stupid us, we see it as some sort of duty, required by our code of ethics. Ye

'' what did you dream, it's alright we told we told you what to dream....so welcome to the machine'' David Gilmor (pink floyd)
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FUN CH
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PostSun Feb 01, 2015 1:10 pm 
I view these historical incidents as important data that help support current observational data. Yesterday i recieved an observation that no surface hoar was being maintained above 3200' feet, hwy 20 to cutthroat and that good corn snow was to be found on south facing aspects with a strong 4'' melt freeze crust. From my past mental maps, i can extrapolate and correlate that observation to other known hazard areas and past observations and start to form a hazard analysis subject to change as i get out into the field when the dust on crust starts to feel like powder as bonds form and settlement occurs in the new storm layers. Of course i'm being optimistic that we get some of the stuff. I did trigger a snow slide today. But since it occured on my solar panals, i won't rush to any conclusions. 1'' crown.

'' what did you dream, it's alright we told we told you what to dream....so welcome to the machine'' David Gilmor (pink floyd)
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trestle
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PostMon Feb 02, 2015 6:37 am 
Go away troll. This has gotten old.

"Life favors the prepared." - Edna Mode
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podenski
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PostMon Feb 02, 2015 1:54 pm 
Some useful resources that are more relevant I think: Current avalanche conditions: http://www.nwac.us/ Topo map with slope angle overlay in color-coded format: http://caltopo.com/map.html#ll=48.84819,-121.6884&z=15&b=t&o=f,r&n=1,0.25&a=sf Since avalanches typically occur between 30 - 50 degrees the slope shading will indicate 'safe' areas. That is to say, areas where you'd be unlikely to trigger an avalanche. 'safe' because you also need to pay attention to what's above the area you're traveling in. Obviously, there's much more to learn and know but that's about the best there is to work with now. Certainly the nwac forecast is quite an improvement over what I had to work with when I first started mountaineering in PNW circa 1975.

Pat Podenski
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FUN CH
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PostMon Feb 02, 2015 2:04 pm 
jeff_ward wrote:
Freeski wrote:
In my area, NE Cascades we have yet another crust layer and an invesion cloud with recent clear nights. Probable double wammy surface frost formation. If there existed a hazard map that contained recorded data collected from 35 years of near-miss incident reports and observed avalanche reports, imagine how useful this map would be right now.
You can't really be serious about this. A map of near misses and observed avalanches is not going to tell you where the surface hoar is right now. You need to get off your computer and go into the mountains to look for it. I know this post was just a troll, but you do illustrate a good point on how someone could use this proposed "hazard map" inappropriately. Information without proper context or training could end up being misused and get someone into trouble. That is one of the reasons this information is filtered through the avalanche center, both in the United States and in Canada. We want professional observers sending in unfiltered observations. We don't want them worried about how the public, with varying levels of experience and training, could possibly misuse the information. We just want the observation and then the forecasters can decide how to appropriately deliver it to the public.
And yet nwac posts an unfiltered observations page, ncmg, your company, posts stability opinions on it's ad web sites and fireside radio chats. What was that you posted 4 season's ago about 'tiptoeing' around a known reative pwl that you claimed was getting harder to trigger. Then your guides took clients out of your permit authorized terrain area and into an area that I personally warned two guides about and posted repeated warnings about on TAY and then a client took a ride in a slide in the exact area and which had potenually lethal consequences. That group triggered that same reactive pwl. Then nwac filters that data, reports the avalanche in the washington pass area and doesn't report that this was a commercially guided trip, which is important data. That area, 'powder cache', is way east of washington pass, and has a long history of human triggered avys including a kid who was with us on one tour. The area also has a long pwl history because it is in an area that favors sustained hoar crystal growth in the avalanche terrain that we ski. And you don't think the public can handle the truth? PLEASE, tell me, what am i missing here? As soon as dig them out, i'll post the supporting doc's. Edit to add. I have since met one of guides and he is a stand up guy who i would have no problem going on a ski tour with. One hell of a nice guy. But when you are new an area, all the historical hazard areas don't jump out at you, hence the hazard map idea for BC travel.

'' what did you dream, it's alright we told we told you what to dream....so welcome to the machine'' David Gilmor (pink floyd)
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