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wolffie
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PostThu Mar 12, 2015 9:56 am 
We can and do believe anything we want. It all depends upon how we decide what we want to believe. I can believe the moon is a big cheese in the sky; that the phases of the moon are caused by an invisible monster who lives behind it and slowly eats it away every two weeks, whereupon it grows back; and that lunar eclipses occur when the monster binges, gobbles it up all at once, then pukes it back up. But that will not enable me to predict the next binge.

Some people have better things to do with their lives than walking the dog. Some don't.
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CC
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CC
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PostSat Mar 14, 2015 10:18 pm 
Jake Neiffer wrote:
Dang, CC it looks like your handle is appropriately titled. smile.gif I'm curious what qualifications you possess that make you particularly adept at judging scientific work?
So it's show me the vita? Hmm, maybe not a bad idea for all these science related posts. OK: BS&MS in ME; interdisciplinary PHD in an area of Biophysics; Post Doc @ MIT; retired UW Prof. Have had grad level courses in thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, heat transfer, and nonlinear dynamics, and have published in nonlinear dynamics/chaos. These are all areas relevant to climate modeling. That said, I do not consider myself qualified to critique state-of-the-art climate models. In Rumsfeldian speak: I know enough to know what I don't know. Basis of shoulder chip? The whole ideology-based, and given the ideology, money-based, attack on science: using PR firms and media campaigns to generate distrust of particular scientific results (e.g., the term “junk science” was coined by a PR firm hired by the tobacco industry) and create the impression that scientific theories/results can be judged by laymen in a popularity contest, and that many scientists are engaged in conspiracies and hoaxes; scientifically (either actual or feigned) ignorant politicians making judgments about science who are complicit in the attack; the general scientific illiteracy/innumeracy of the average voter that is partially a result of this attack. Not to, god forbid, turn this into another global-warming thread, but it is the current best exemplar of the results of this attack. For example, on this site there is a global-warming thread; over 400 pages on a topic where within the expert scientific community, i.e., climate scientists, there is little controversy over the basic results. There are, however, no threads on, say, string theory, or quantum mechanics, where there are major controversies within the expert community. Mountain Goat is a prototypical example of the idealogs pushing this agenda. Essentially all of his posts are colored by the ideology. Relative to the ones on science: if the scientific results (e.g. global warming) might hinder his beloved “free” market, results bad; if the scientific results have no effect on free market (e.g. GMOs), results good. His attacks on climate modeling are asinine. Just vague insinuations of hoaxes and gross scientific incompetence. A hoax involving thousands of scientists in different countries? Anyone who understood the mindset and competitiveness of the average scientist would realize that you couldn't get more than two scientists involved in a hoax that would last longer than it took them to recover from their hangover. Thousands of scientists trained in many different countries that somehow were never exposed to the scientific method and/or never heard of the concept that you can never prove a theory, you can only disprove it (i.e., falsification)? And somehow they all ended up in the same discipline? Beyond preposterous. As an aside: MG also used to use consensus, as in where a theory is accepted by a consensus of the experts in the field, as a derogatory term in his global warming bloviating. This seems to have stopped since the time a few years ago he jumped on a report from an Italian research team who had purportedly measured nutrino velocities faster than the speed of light; something like “so much for scientific consensus.” Not surprisingly, relativity, which has passed over a hundred “falsification tests” also passed this one; it turned out to be experimental error. He seems to have dropped the consensus bit after that. It was however an ironic link to his ideology-based denialist antecedents in early-20th-century Germany. So in conclusion: yeah I've got a chip on my shoulder. You gotta problem with that? And another thing: you darn kids get off my lawn!

First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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MtnGoat
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 8:32 am 
Golly, all those insinuations, accusations, bluster, and well poisoning, and still unable to show my basic arguments are actually false. Note the vague allusions to some unnamed 'antecedants in 20th century Germany', a telling attempt at guilt by association. Oh, there's plenty of implying they're false, strawmen, and snark. And of course, the implication that ideology is somehow involved, somewhere! Something CC gets right, almost by accident, but intended as an attack. The fact is ideology is involved everywhere, for everyone, and the question isn't who doesn't have one, it's wether or not it interferes with valid judgement. Ideology is merely the background and structure of ideas a person uses to judge the world around them, choices, actions, events, and data. I have one, he has one, everyone has one. In my case the ideas I organize my judgments and actions by have no impact on the issue of warming beyond my interest in rational expectation on scientific validity in every portion of the chain from top to bottom, because if I was a believer, I'd merely argue for a different set of solutions than he would. That is where my ideology would show it's influence on political ideals. The presumption that certain conclusions on the empirical science of the topic must lead to certain types of political solutions is itself a sign of conflating together political and scientific ideologies.

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Daryl
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 9:20 am 
I do not believe string theory and quantum mechanics revolve around raising taxes and energy prices? Might be why no one gets excited when it's discussed.

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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 9:55 am 
Climate change doesn't revolve around energy prices any more than gravity revolves around stairs. Climate change and gravity are both realities. People are burying their heads in the sand about them because they don't like the implications. It would be like saying there are no car crashes because I don't want them to lower the speed limit.

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MtnGoat
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 10:58 am 
It's interesting to see a notion which isn't even falsifiable, claimed as an indisputable reality.

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Cyclopath
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 12:05 pm 
It's interesting that some people feel compelled to post thousands of vague messages on a single topic, and seem to have a burning need to get the last word in on internet forums.

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Daryl
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 12:57 pm 
Cyclopath wrote:
Climate change doesn't revolve around energy prices any more than gravity revolves around stairs. Climate change and gravity are both realities.
1. Why do all global warming solutions revolve around higher priced energy or large tax schemes then? Can none of these experts come up with a fix that is also economically viable? 2. You seem more confident in the reality of global warming being something we can and should try to control than the actual expert scientists. kinda anti-science.

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MtnGoat
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 2:15 pm 
Cyclopath wrote:
It's interesting that some people feel compelled to post thousands of vague messages on a single topic, and seem to have a burning need to get the last word in on internet forums.
Who are these people, and don't you fulfill the burning need you mention the instant your post shows up as the most recent? After all, anyone who posts anything but an OP is always a last worder, at least for an instant. tongue.gif

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Malachai Constant
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 6:16 pm 
CC is just saying what I have been saying for years. He didn't answer your arguments you just raise evil conspiracies with absolutely no evidence and whatever scandal of the moment that denier sites are currently pushing, then forget about it when debunked. All of this is accompanied with a bunch of smoke and objectivist jargon about compulsion and force which boils down to objecting to spending or taxes.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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MtnGoat
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 6:58 pm 
Neither CC nor you falsify my actual arguments on process and method...because they're correct. Like my examples, which he derided yet could not show to be logically false. This pattern is repeated continually. Everything but the kitchen sink in disparagement...but a gaping hole where showing my basic arguments are false should be. If it's so easy and so obvious, one wonders why you don't just present the argument and be done with it. Derision is no substitute for falsification...if your goal is applying valid method. It seems you're applying something else. As for conspiracies, more well poisoning and then tossing a strawman down the well for good measure. You'll not be able to present me arguing there is a scientific conspiracy. There is no core of plotters roping in others, no secret meetings, no sign or handshake. There is groupthink galore, and in outcome, the errors in kind merely coalesce, like people claiming to like kale. On the other hand, the fact that the IPCC is a political organization with goals differing from pure science is demonstrable from the comments of it's officers, as well as applause lines during speeches by others. You're not doing any better than CC at actually showing arguments I actually make concerning the problems with this theory to be false, but you are doing a yeoman's job of using the same methods as he. Why, with the same position, it must be due to a conspiracy! hockeygrin.gif

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Malachai Constant
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 7:04 pm 
I don't even know what the F your basic arguments are because you never presented them. No evidence of anything just a pile of bombast. Nada, nothing, just smoke.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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MtnGoat
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 7:13 pm 
Malachai Constant wrote:
I don't even know what the F your basic arguments are because you never presented them. No evidence of anything just a pile of bombast. Nada, nothing, just smoke.
Getting testy and more derision pours forth. Such an example of the logical, dispassionate analysis we've come to expect. Here they are so you can shoot them down. 1) Consensus is not empirical evidence 2) Correlation is not causation 3) Models are not empirical evidence 4) The claimed difference between what the temperature is and what it would be without man is non falsifiable 5) There is no empirical evidence from any source which shows that humans are inducing climate change which does not rest upon the presumption that humans are causing climate change...begging the question, in other words. Natural variations occurring on their own for reasons we don't understand can be argued without danger from any of the arguments listed above, in every case. Remember..."yes, but" is not falsification. It's validation that my assertions are in fact correct. There you go. Have at it.

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Malachai Constant
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 8:00 pm 
Those are not arguments just principles arguments require principles supported by evidence. You have not provided evidence. The papers of scientist supported by experiments are arguments. You have nothing, just unsupported hypothesis. That is what I mean by hot air, just waving your hands around and saying models are not empirical evidence is not an argument. The models are supported by such elementary evidence as ideal gas laws, absorption of IR radiation by CO2, and atmospheric circulation all supported by thousands of experiments and observations. To counter this you have nothing. tongue.gif

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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nuclear_eggset
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PostMon Mar 16, 2015 8:24 pm 
Daryl wrote:
Cyclopath wrote:
Climate change doesn't revolve around energy prices any more than gravity revolves around stairs. Climate change and gravity are both realities.
1. Why do all global warming solutions revolve around higher priced energy or large tax schemes then? Can none of these experts come up with a fix that is also economically viable? 2. You seem more confident in the reality of global warming being something we can and should try to control than the actual expert scientists. kinda anti-science.
Because current energy prices do not reflect the TRUE cost of energy, because there are hidden and distributed "costs" that go unpaid. (Take, for instance, the case of a power plant. It costs a certain amount of money to build and to operate (including resources for creating the power). The cost of the energy it produces is NOT merely a summation of those listed things, because there are hidden costs that do no get paid, coming out of shared resources. Power plants are NOT closed systems in and of themselves, and cannot be *accurately* modeled as such from a resource perspective. Power plants produce pollution (unless you're talking solar/wind/hydro, which DO have other effects on the environment they operate in - cooler ground temperatures, altered weather patterns, altered water flow rates/volumes, etc.) The cost of removing *all* potential pollution (or other effects) (such the plant was effectively a closed system) is a part of the TRUE cost of the energy produced. But we, as a society, decided decades ago that the cost (in terms of shared impact to the environment) was trivial and it would go unpaid. (Well, very long term loan? smile.gif ) And so, we have what are actually artificially low energy prices, if you consider the complete cost of producing energy. I'm not trying to argue one way or another on policy, what costs should be, or what power plants should be regulated to do. I'm merely talking from a strict economist standpoint about price determination.

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