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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Oct 02, 2015 2:39 pm
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albrightmd wrote: | Easterbrook wrote: | For the next 20 years, I predict global cooling of about 3/10ths of a degree Fahrenheit, as opposed to the one-degree warming predicted by the IPCC |
He is only projecting a modest decrease of -0.3 F over the next 20 years. This follows almost 20 years of no significant global warming since 1996, so I don't understand how you can claim it is "nonsensical". Here in the Pacific Northwest we have experienced about -0.5 F of cooling over the past 25 years since 1990. I'm sure if I had forecast that back in 1990, many would have labelled such a forecast as "nonsensical". In fact, the Pacific Northwest temperature forecasts issued in the late 1990s for the 2020s are in danger of being way overstated. Remember, 2020 is just barely more than 4 years away. I really don't like this business of claiming my forecast is better than your forecast. That simply is not science, unless in this case you're willing to withhold judgement until 2035. |
He is estimating that based on what, a ouija board? I wasn't aware that Easterbrook was involved in current climate modeling.
Why this Easterbrook ex-glacial scientist denies global warming I have no idea - what is his motivation? In any cased his global cooling hoax is just plain b. s. - and I don't mean "Bachelor of Science".
Pseudo science climate change deniers
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
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Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:12 pm
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gb wrote: | He is estimating that based on what, a ouija board? |
Solar cycles as well as the PDO and AMO. As far as I've been able to tell, he pulls longterm trends out of the record and looks at the various cycles in climate that remain.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:35 pm
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drm wrote: | gb wrote: | He is estimating that based on what, a ouija board? |
Solar cycles as well as the PDO and AMO. As far as I've been able to tell, he pulls longterm trends out of the record and looks at the various cycles in climate that remain. |
Oh, I see. Haven't really looked at the AMO, but am quite familiar with the PDO.
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
So, the PDO clearly shows why temperatures have been trending downward over the past twenty years. That explains why the glaciers have done so well lately (last two decades of mass balance measurements) and why temperatures in the NW (where the PDO is a very strong climate influence) have been cooling over the same period. (sic)
PDO and climate in NA
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Malachai Constant Member
Joined: 13 Jan 2002 Posts: 16092 | TRs | Pics Location: Back Again Like A Bad Penny |
Who are you going to believe me or your lying eyes? - G. Marx
"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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peltoms Member
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 Posts: 1760 | TRs | Pics Location: Worcester MA |
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peltoms
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Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:55 am
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We had the chance to stand at the end of quite a few Mount Baker glaciers this summer as we do most summers. They are all retreating quite fast. Each one has retreated double digit meters this summer alone. This is not guessing. Anyone who has looked at them can see this without even a measurement. Easterbrook does control the title of the article at Ice Age Now, and has no actual data for his maps. We can look at a satellite image from 9/28/2015 to see changes in the glaciers just this summer on those we did not visit.
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cascadetraverser Member
Joined: 16 Sep 2007 Posts: 1407 | TRs | Pics
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The retreating glacier naysayers must not get out. How can one not firsthand witness the amazing and sad cascade glacier retreat? I remember the extent of the valley portion of the Chickamin glacier in 1987 when I first crossed it enroute to the Suiattle river on the extended Ptarmigan traverse. I did the same trip in 2002 and hiked an additional 15 minutes before I hit the ice (the view from White rock lakes was remarkably different as well). I can only guess what it looks like now....
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peltoms Member
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 Posts: 1760 | TRs | Pics Location: Worcester MA |
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peltoms
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Sun Oct 11, 2015 4:35 am
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Deming Glacier terminus view. Note how close icefall is to terminus now. What a difference reality is from Easterbrook's depiction-fiction.
Deming Terminus
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peltoms Member
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 Posts: 1760 | TRs | Pics Location: Worcester MA |
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peltoms
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Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:31 am
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From nearby areas, "shocking levels of melt" in BC Glaciers all but gone in Montana. The story remains the same throughout the PNW though the adjectives may change.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:23 am
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I visited Garibaldi Park in 1979 and camped near the western portion of the Helm Glacier at a small lake that did not appear on the map but had obviously had land near it that had been out of the ice for a very long time and was fully vegetated.
This year cartman and I returned to this area and descended off Panorama Ridge to this lake. In 1979 ice was still on the edge of this lake; now ice was nowhere near. We descended fresh moraine around 200 vft. to reach the current margin of the Helm Glacier! 200' of ice had melted, articles indicate much of this has been in the last decade (since 2003).
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peltoms Member
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 Posts: 1760 | TRs | Pics Location: Worcester MA |
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peltoms
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Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:39 am
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Indeed Helm Glacier is really suffering. if you have good image of the glacier I could use them in an update of this page. Helm Glacier
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:26 pm
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Mauri,
I'll send you some of the Helm from 1979 and 2015.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:27 pm
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peltoms Member
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 Posts: 1760 | TRs | Pics Location: Worcester MA |
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peltoms
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Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:56 am
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The WHoleU looks at our work in piece with Tom Hammond.
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drm Member
Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics Location: The Dalles, OR |
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drm
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Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:15 am
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Wow, the second picture of that glacial canyon resulting from merged crevasses makes me think of tipping points for a glacier. While snowpack is a bit above average this winter, once you get those kinds of gashes in the glacier and all that melt penetrating to the surface, it probably takes quite a few above-average years to "heal" the damage from a year like the last one.
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cascadetraverser Member
Joined: 16 Sep 2007 Posts: 1407 | TRs | Pics
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Drm: I was wondering the same thing when I read this article; although this has been a great snow year, one has to think we lost multiple years if not decades of glacier bulk last year and it is hard to imagine that will recover in our lifetimes..
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