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Fletcher
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Fletcher
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 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:02 am |
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gb
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gb
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Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:19 am |
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That is certainly an "unbelievable" period of two months. I would think El Nino has to be a major factor here as it is hard to believe you could warm up the entire planet at that rate. Thing is, though, with climate change it is expected that there will be more strong El Ninos and fewer La Ninas....so maybe that is part of the expected change computer models project. You have to hope that it is in fact the record El Nino that has caused the unprecedented change, otherwise....it is going to hell in a handcart. The remainder of the year will tell as El Nino is now fading fast.
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AR
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Location: Saratoga Passage |
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AR
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Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:52 pm |
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I remember some excellent hikes in the 76'-78' timeframe. There were some crazy off edge temps then too. It seems when our Sun gets all quiet (no sunspots) it can have an effect here. At best we have less than a 100 years of records.
I'm hankering to suggest it's not too scary.
...wait...are we just going to hang here or go hiking?
...wait...are we just going to hang here or go hiking?
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contour5
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contour5
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Mon Apr 25, 2016 11:35 pm |
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It's becoming pretty clear that global temperature increase is occuring along an exponential curve. The warmer it gets; the faster the planet's temperature continues to increase.
Methane is the "elephant in the living room". Pound for pound, it has 25 times the climate impact of atmospheric carbon. Fracking is releasing it by the gigaton.
The final tipping point may be a Catastrophic Methane Hydrate Release of the methane hydrates which are stored in permafrost, and in clathrate cage structures in the ocean.
According to the "clathrate gun hypothesis", clathrate cage failure may have been responsible for mass extinction events in the past.
The mega-rich people will all be bugging out to Mars in the next few years, to live in Buckaroo Banzai space colonies; leaving the rest of us to suffer and burn as Earth is rapidly converted into the new Venus.
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moonspots
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Joined: 03 Feb 2007
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moonspots
Happy Curmudgeon
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Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:44 am |
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To quote part of the article:
"Fossil fuel-burning and the strong El Niño pushed CO2 levels up by 3.05 parts per million (ppm) to 402.6 ppm compared to 2014. “CO2 levels are increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,” said Pieter Tans, lead scientist at Noaa’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. “It’s explosive compared to natural processes.”
I wish I knew for certain, but somewhere early in this discussion/debate (several years ago), I read somewhere that historically, CO2 levels rising were the *result* of temp increases, not the *cause*, and that water vapor was the predominant greenhouse gas, not CO2. But, I can't confirm that, nor can I quote a source so it matters not I suppose.
"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology
"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology
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thunderhead
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Not that scary. The planet is warming a little. Yes, there are scary attention grabbing headlines, but when you really look at the numbers, the amount of warming we are seeing is just not that big of a number.
Especially since warming is MUCH safer than cooler (we are certainly nearer to the bottom of our planets habitable temperature range than the top).
Every year global crop production increases. Every year global % of population in famine declines.
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NacMacFeegle
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Not that scary. The planet is warming a little. Yes, there are scary attention grabbing headlines, but when you really look at the numbers, the amount of warming we are seeing is just not that big of a number. |
Even the smallest change in temperature has huge effects. You might want to read this simple climate change Q&A published by the EPA: https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/kids/faq.html
| Quote: | | Why is it a problem if the Earth's average temperature gets a little warmer?
Temperature plays an important role in how nature works, and even a small change in average temperature can have a noticeable impact on plants, animals, and other natural processes. For example, just a one- to two-degree increase in global temperature can lead to a much greater risk of wildfires. Some parts of the world are warming a lot more than average, which means the effects are much more dramatic. |
| thunderhead wrote: | | Especially since warming is MUCH safer than cooler |
If all the worlds ice sheets melt a map of Seattle will look something like this:Portland like this:and Vancouver BC like this:
Sea level rise as a result of global warming will displace billions of people. Cooling would only lower sea level; at worst we'd eventually have to move our docks.
| thunderhead wrote: | | Every year global crop production increases. Every year global % of population in famine declines. |
You can thank the industrialization of agriculture in third world countries for that, and it won't last. Desertification is on the rise, and eventually we will reach the limit of what food we can grow, after which it will decline.
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thunderhead
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| Quote: | | Even the smallest change in temperature has huge effects. |
False. We have already observed 100 years of slow temperature increase which has produced small effects in some climate variables and 0 effect on others. If you look at most climate stations, the frequency of yearly precipitation shows no significant trend. There is no trend in the frequency of cloud cover, nor on the frequency of high winds, nor on the frequency of strong hurricanes or tornadoes. Sea levels have risen perhaps a foot, and the average rain/snow line has risen perhaps a few hundred vertical feet.
I encourage you to look at the actual data from weather stations over time, rather than relying on the poor understanding and hype of politicians and reporters... on either "side".
| Quote: | | If all the worlds ice sheets melt |
If we rely on fossil fuels for the next 800 years or so, that could happen.
| Quote: | | Cooling would only lower sea level |
Freezing is pretty much a hard cap on plant growth, which no amount of agricultural ability can defeat. Pretty much all the mass extinctions in the history of the planet are likely the result of shock cooling events. Except the one we are in right now, caused by us (primarily through over hunting and deforestation, which is different than global warming even though they are often incorrectly lumped into the same group in popular culture/media.)
| Quote: | | You can thank the industrialization of agriculture in third world countries for that, and it won't last. |
Farm yields are increasing pretty much everywhere. So far, technology has been outpacing any negative effects of global warming ... if there are any... by far. Its not close. Why do you think our technology will not continue to do so?
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thunderhead
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NacMacFeegle
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wolffie
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wolffie
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Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:25 pm |
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No climate scientist has had clean underwear for a long time.
| NacMacFeegle wrote: | | If all the worlds ice sheets melt a map of Seattle will look something like this: |
I can hardly wait! My house is at 400', so it'll almost be waterfront property, and worth a shipload of money if I survive the wars. I can sell out, retire, and... move to... oh, nevermind.
Some people have better things to do with their lives than walking the dog. Some don't.
Some people have better things to do with their lives than walking the dog. Some don't.
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contour5
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contour5
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Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:35 pm |
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| Quote: | | water vapor was the predominant greenhouse gas, not CO2 |
Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, but it rotates out after a few days, when it falls as rain. CO2, methane ane flourocarbons are persistent- they stay in the atmosphere for much longer periods of time.
| Quote: | | Water vapour will play a huge role in the centuries to come, though. Climate models, backed by satellite measurements, suggest that the amount of water vapour in the upper troposphere (about 5 to 10 kilometres up) will double by the end of this century as temperatures rise.
This will result in roughly twice as much warming than if water vapour remained constant. Changes in clouds could lead to even greater amplification of the warming or reduce it – there is great uncertainty about this. What is certain is that, in the jargon of climate science, water vapour is a feedback, but not a forcing. |
So, CO2 and methane both raise temperature, which increases water vapor, which, so far results in a positive feedback loop- increasing temperature even more. There's a theory that this will eventually flip into a negative feedback loop- resulting in a temperature decrease. I'm not counting on it myself...
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gb
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gb
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Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:38 pm |
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With the incredibly slow rate of global warming that some profess did anyone notice that the planet warmed by a mere 1 degree Celsius in 2015. Why, at that rate, it would only warm 20 degrees C by 2035. Wear a hat, get a fan!
To think warming is slow try to explain how it is possible that you can break the all time daily record for the month of April by 6 degrees Fahrenheit? i.e. What is a standard deviation?
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Pyrites
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Pyrites
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Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:57 am |
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My memory of Low Divide snowless in Winter '77 wasn't that it was warm that year, just dry from drought. Drought broke mid to late Jan?
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
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thunderhead
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| Quote: | | To think warming is slow try to explain how it is possible that you can break the all time daily record for the month of April by 6 degrees Fahrenheit? |
There are 365 days in a year and Seattle weather data is about 120 years old. Occasional broken daily records are expected. Rarely, by a lot.
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