Forum Index > Full Moon Saloon > This is some scary stuff
 Reply to topic
Previous :: Next Topic
Author Message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostMon May 09, 2016 8:18 am 
Backpacker Joe wrote:
gb wrote:
But as to the rest of the post, you've got some major issues
You're point presupposes that global warming exists! AT LEAST as many scientists disagree with your premise as agree with it! You don't give them anymore credit than I give yours! Where were you in the late 70's when many scientists were claiming a coming ice age? Where did you stand on that? At that time the industrial revolution had being going on long enough that if what you think is true they shouldn't have been able to come to a conclusion like that!!! Again, this is about robbing from the rich (1st word nations) and giving to certain special interests! Nothing more!
Once again by your first paragraph you prove that you have done nothing to educate yourself. 97% of scientists who have published papers on the subject believe that APGW is the issue: https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm In the 1970's I had no opinion about the "coming ice age". My personal observations showed that the glaciers of the Cascades were gaining mass. By the mid-80's, 1986 to be exact I had concerns and by 1992 I was certain the glaciers in our region were retreating rapidly. I had seen about 75-100' of down wasting. Since that point the retreat has accelerated. You are being disingenuous to pretend that since the industrial age began in the early to mid-1800's that climate change should have been noticeable then. You intentionally ignore the glaring fact that CO2 concentrations at that time had only slowly began to ramp up from rather static pre-industrial levels. Since that time CO2 levels have risen rapidly, all the more so in the past couple of decades. And with that change comes climate change. Changes in high latitudes have been most dramatic. For instance, Anchorage in the first 120 days of the year has only had three days with below normal temperatures. Changes have been very dramatic in our area as well with surprising warming here in the past five years. Last year and this year were particularly troubling (as was the heat wave of 2009). And yes, I know that this is an El Nino year, but there have been other strong El Ninos and none had temperature anomalies like this and last year. If you choose to educate yourself google El Nino and global warming and you will find that climate modeling (same methodology as weather forecasting) predicts stronger El Ninos.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
thunderhead
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 1510 | TRs | Pics
thunderhead
Member
PostMon May 09, 2016 12:48 pm 
The planet is certainly warming. That dataset is large enough such that statistical significance is 100%. Of course, the threat is near 0, especially to highly intelligent and flexible humans. If we get cheap fusion or renewables coupled with batteries in the next few decades, the global threat is exactly 0. That the little bit of warming we are currently experiencing could threaten our species with any serious threat, much less extinction, is fantasy as completely rediculous as the nuclear winter hype. Even sustained burning of ALL the fossil fuels over the next 1000 years and a return to the plus 20 degree C early days of the dinosaurs would not come close to extinction.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
thunderhead
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 1510 | TRs | Pics
thunderhead
Member
PostMon May 09, 2016 2:47 pm 
Nah, a degree or 2 of warming wont hurt many of them either. Our biosphere can survive without the polar bear.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Cyclopath
Faster than light



Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 7694 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle
Cyclopath
Faster than light
PostMon May 09, 2016 2:58 pm 
NacMacFeegle wrote:
Backpacker Joe wrote:
You're point presupposes that global warming exists!
The exhaustively proven evidence supporting the existence of human influenced global climate is vast and conclusive.
Your point presupposes that humans exist! clown.gif

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Backpacker Joe
Blind Hiker



Joined: 16 Dec 2001
Posts: 23956 | TRs | Pics
Location: Cle Elum
Backpacker Joe
Blind Hiker
PostMon May 09, 2016 8:09 pm 
thunderhead wrote:
The planet is certainly warming. That dataset is large enough such that statistical significance is 100%. Of course, the threat is near 0, especially to highly intelligent and flexible humans.
And the Earth has never gone thru a warming period before right? Oh but it has, and all of you CANT blame humanity for it can you? Greenland USED to be green! Digs in the ice had found farming tools! Was that warming period human caused! I never said the climate wasn't changing. It has been changing since the creation of the earth! Im saying its normal, and a hundred years of an industrial revolution isnt the cause when thousands of volcanoes and other cataclysmic events, not to mention sun activity didnt make the same impact you're all claiming.

"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide." — Abraham Lincoln
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
WANative
Member
Member


Joined: 09 May 2016
Posts: 277 | TRs | Pics
WANative
Member
PostMon May 09, 2016 9:59 pm 
gb wrote:
Backpacker Joe wrote:
Look, whatever is going to happen is going to happen! "IF" and I say if because I don't believe that it is, but if this is human caused there is NOTHING that can be done about it! The "BIGGEST" contributors (China, India and so many other 3rd world nations) are "NEVER" going to comply to any regulations that may/might/could possibly make a difference! You can tie as many 1st world nations together as you want, they (we) arent the problem to begin with, and it isnt going to make the smallest dent in the problem!
Actually, people like you are the problem and have been for the last twenty years or so. Kind of like dragging an anchor. You appear to get your information out of a hat. The US share of global CO2 emissions is second only to China. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2.html#.Vy9Y7dD5n8s China may have to act because cities like Peking are becoming uninhabitable. India for the second year in a row is having a record breaking heat wave. The US has the capability to make a substantial dent in CO2 emissions and has been on that path particularly in the past seven years. That said, human nature being what it is, mankind would only typically act when the s*&^ hits the fan. Ultimately, the cost of not acting will become so great that mankind will act. Stupidly, by that time it may well be too late. The insurance cost of just the Fort McMurray fire is currently estimated at $9 Billion, let alone the costs of firefighting and health issues from breathing smoke. Imagine what the cost will be when people have to evacuate their homes the result of rising sea levels all around the globe. The numbers will be in the many Trillions of $. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. Heatwaves will kill many thousands of others, crop failure and loss of drinking water will cause vast relocations and political strife. But not to worry. We can make our military much bigger to deal with political strife, terrorism and regional wars that break out. We'll pay for that instead with our tax dollars.
When did the area burn last? It's also I think foolish to mix up actual air pollution with C02. China has an air pollution problem in their cities. C02 doesn't cause smog. About 6 years ago there was a renewable credit given out by the feds. I claimed the credit when I bought my new pellet stove. Wood smoke is one of the worst pollutants currently produced besides untreated coal stack gas but the government paid me to put in a pellet stove because the fuel it burns is "carbon neutral".

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



Joined: 25 Jul 2008
Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics
Location: The Hermitage
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostMon May 09, 2016 10:55 pm 
Saying that a warming planet poses no threat to human existence is a bit of a stretch. Saying that climate change won't disrupt our current way of life and cause major disruptions to human society throughout the world is the result of simply not paying attention. Perhaps willingly, perhaps not. The ability of people to deny what makes them uncomfortable, even as it kills them is a particularly curious human trait. http://www.oceanscientists.org/index.php/topics/ocean-deoxygenation http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/news-app/story.51/title.will-open-ocean-oxygen-stress-intensify-under-climate-change-/menu.no/sec./home. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification A note on ocean acidification - this is already affecting shellfish farming. http://www.un.org/en/events/desertificationday/background.shtml There's lots more. All you have to do is open your eyes to it. People like to say "well what are *you* doing about it?" Honestly, there aint sh## I, as an individual can do that will make a lick of difference. Changes will have to happen at a societal level. I do carpool when it makes sense to, but I always have because it just doesn't make sense for several people to all drive individual vehicles to the same destination at the same time. Millions and millions of vehicles burning fossil fuels so we can all get to work each day are a big part of the problem. GM had a pretty good all electric vehicle in production back in the late '90s. Watch "Who Killed the Electric Car" if you'd like to know more about that deal. If I could buy an all electric vehicle with a reliable 200 mile range, that could achieve a decent amount of recharge in less than 1/2 an hour (say 20% or better) I'd be happy to own one. That's what I'd drive pretty much every day for my commuting needs. Last weekend I drove to my sister's in Richland, a 210 mile one-way trek. If I could have stopped in Ellensburg for 1/2 an hour to get enough of a charge to make it there, and done the same on the way back, I wouldn't have minded the additional time. I could've taken a nap or got a snack or something. But the only way such vehicles will become affordable to shlubs like me is if they reach mass-market popularity, and the only way that's going to happen is with a shift in how our society operates. So, in the meantime, I'll just buy used cars that at least don't cost any extra resources/energy to manufacture. You know what I love about the PNW? How green everything is. Moss on Maples, Hemlocks and Ferns, Rhodendrons growing wild in the shady valleys, snow patches and glaciers at elevation, cool, clear alpine lakes. If we transition to a climate where winter lasts a couple months, the snow is gone by June and July - October are oppressively hot, how long will the native ecosystems last? How long before the kind of big fires we've been seeing on the East side start happening on this side of the Crest? There are plenty of trees 'round here... I would be willing to give up a fair amount to maintain such things. But how do I do that, and what's the point if it won't make any difference? If I live a totally green lifestyle but all of my workaday neighbors who have probably never read a scientific journal in their lives continue as they always have, nothing will change. Well, enough rambling from me. Enjoy your 80 degree May weather...

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



Joined: 25 Jul 2008
Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics
Location: The Hermitage
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostTue May 10, 2016 7:06 am 
Not sure how this will work here, so if it doesn't, visit this URL for the graphic: http://grnpc.org/IgNWr

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
thunderhead
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 1510 | TRs | Pics
thunderhead
Member
PostTue May 10, 2016 8:37 am 
Posting scary sounding predictions does not change the actual data: Crop yields are higher than they have ever been Precipitation patterns are unchanged Storm frequency is unchanged Increased CO2 helps plants grow The frost free growing season will lengthen The real key is this: The amount of solar energy recieved is the primary driver of global weather patterns. This is of course, unchanged, as our orbit is unchanged as is our star. Temperature is mostly a byproduct. The upper temperature limit to the habitability of humans is based partly on humidity, but suffice to say that 99.9% of the world is not remotely close to this.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



Joined: 25 Jul 2008
Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics
Location: The Hermitage
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostTue May 10, 2016 9:05 am 
Nothing I posted is a baseless prediction. That is all stuff that is happening now, right in front of our very noses. It's not a stretch to predict that these things will continue and get worse as the factors that drive them continue to increase. The impression you're giving is that all you care about is being able to stuff your craw with GMO corn and wheat. species extinction, massive population diisplacements and the societal upheavals that will result, and radical changes to local ecosystems don't matter at all to you, huh? As for your specious argument about solar energy driving weather patterns - if solar energy hasn't changed then what is causing the transition to warmer, drier springs and summers here in the PNW? What do you think the long-term effects of such a change will be?

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
hikersarenumber1
Member
Member


Joined: 21 Apr 2015
Posts: 466 | TRs | Pics
hikersarenumber1
Member
PostTue May 10, 2016 9:14 am 
Bedivere wrote:
Saying that a warming planet poses no threat to human existence is a bit of a stretch. Saying that climate change won't disrupt our current way of life and cause major disruptions to human society throughout the world is the result of simply not paying attention. Perhaps willingly, perhaps not. The ability of people to deny what makes them uncomfortable, even as it kills them is a particularly curious human trait. http://www.oceanscientists.org/index.php/topics/ocean-deoxygenation http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/news-app/story.51/title.will-open-ocean-oxygen-stress-intensify-under-climate-change-/menu.no/sec./home. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification A note on ocean acidification - this is already affecting shellfish farming. http://www.un.org/en/events/desertificationday/background.shtml There's lots more. All you have to do is open your eyes to it. People like to say "well what are *you* doing about it?" Honestly, there aint sh## I, as an individual can do that will make a lick of difference. Changes will have to happen at a societal level. I do carpool when it makes sense to, but I always have because it just doesn't make sense for several people to all drive individual vehicles to the same destination at the same time. Millions and millions of vehicles burning fossil fuels so we can all get to work each day are a big part of the problem. GM had a pretty good all electric vehicle in production back in the late '90s. Watch "Who Killed the Electric Car" if you'd like to know more about that deal. If I could buy an all electric vehicle with a reliable 200 mile range, that could achieve a decent amount of recharge in less than 1/2 an hour (say 20% or better) I'd be happy to own one. That's what I'd drive pretty much every day for my commuting needs. Last weekend I drove to my sister's in Richland, a 210 mile one-way trek. If I could have stopped in Ellensburg for 1/2 an hour to get enough of a charge to make it there, and done the same on the way back, I wouldn't have minded the additional time. I could've taken a nap or got a snack or something. But the only way such vehicles will become affordable to shlubs like me is if they reach mass-market popularity, and the only way that's going to happen is with a shift in how our society operates. So, in the meantime, I'll just buy used cars that at least don't cost any extra resources/energy to manufacture. You know what I love about the PNW? How green everything is. Moss on Maples, Hemlocks and Ferns, Rhodendrons growing wild in the shady valleys, snow patches and glaciers at elevation, cool, clear alpine lakes. If we transition to a climate where winter lasts a couple months, the snow is gone by June and July - October are oppressively hot, how long will the native ecosystems last? How long before the kind of big fires we've been seeing on the East side start happening on this side of the Crest? There are plenty of trees 'round here... I would be willing to give up a fair amount to maintain such things. But how do I do that, and what's the point if it won't make any difference? If I live a totally green lifestyle but all of my workaday neighbors who have probably never read a scientific journal in their lives continue as they always have, nothing will change. Well, enough rambling from me. Enjoy your 80 degree May weather...
No one snowflake blames itself for an avalanche. Societies change because citizens change.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
thunderhead
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 1510 | TRs | Pics
thunderhead
Member
PostTue May 10, 2016 10:12 am 
Global warming is the result of increased atmospheric resistance to outgoing IR radiation. Inbound solar radiation is unaffected. Thats the basics, of course. In reality there are minor albedo changes of unknown sign combined with a tiny bit of upper atmospheric absorption (but always minor) that do affect inbound irradiance, but that is a low order effect. The increasing acidification of the oceans is happening... but like many of these changes, is overhyped and not very scary at all. Compared with the economic and societal disruptions(good or bad) caused by increasing technology, the prospect of minor global warming induced changes is almost completely insignificant.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostWed May 11, 2016 8:17 am 
WANative wrote:
It's also I think foolish to mix up actual air pollution with C02. China has an air pollution problem in their cities. C02 doesn't cause smog.
Funny one! China is deeply concerned about air pollution particularly from vehicles. That air pollution comes from burning fossil fuels which also emit CO2. If China adequately addresses particulates it will also be addressing CO2 emissions. But you had to have known that when you typed it. Why look foolish?

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostWed May 11, 2016 8:37 am 
thunderhead wrote:
Posting scary sounding predictions does not change the actual data: Crop yields are higher than they have ever been Precipitation patterns are unchanged Storm frequency is unchanged Increased CO2 helps plants grow The frost free growing season will lengthen The real key is this: The amount of solar energy recieved is the primary driver of global weather patterns. This is of course, unchanged, as our orbit is unchanged as is our star. Temperature is mostly a byproduct. The upper temperature limit to the habitability of humans is based partly on humidity, but suffice to say that 99.9% of the world is not remotely close to this.
Malarkey. Studies show that the relationship between plant growth increases and CO2 levels only operates within a certain range. Here is one of the earlier studies: https://news.stanford.edu/pr/02/jasperplots124.html Recent climate history and climate models coalesce around the fact that changes in precipitation patterns and events will change and are changing. The summer droughts in many boreal forests are a case in point. California is another example. Also retention of water in areas dependent on snow melt will be and are being adversely affected as snow cover remains for a significantly shorter span of time on a yearly basis. A recent Canadian study predicts a 30% decrease in crop yields in the wheat belt of Western Canada. Your last statement is pure misleading BS. You know enough (one would think) that the key to surface and atmospheric warming is net warming not only in the UV spectrum but also in the infrared. CO2 and atmospheric water vapor (for example) absorbs and reflects infrared emissions and a certain amount of this energy returns back to earth, warming the earth surface and the lower regions of the atmosphere. This is 6th grade science.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostWed May 11, 2016 8:40 am 
thunderhead wrote:
Global warming is the result of increased atmospheric resistance to outgoing IR radiation. Inbound solar radiation is unaffected. Thats the basics, of course. In reality there are minor albedo changes of unknown sign combined with a tiny bit of upper atmospheric absorption (but always minor) that do affect inbound irradiance, but that is a low order effect. The increasing acidification of the oceans is happening... but like many of these changes, is overhyped and not very scary at all. Compared with the economic and societal disruptions(good or bad) caused by increasing technology, the prospect of minor global warming induced changes is almost completely insignificant.
To you and only you.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
   All times are GMT - 8 Hours
 Reply to topic
Forum Index > Full Moon Saloon > This is some scary stuff
  Happy Birthday speyguy, Bandanabraids!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum