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cdestroyer
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cdestroyer
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PostSat Jan 07, 2017 7:40 am 
ben parsons 36 of kalispell mt died from injuries received in an avalanche in glacier national park..he was an avid and experienced back country skier..the avalanche area was not posted as a great risk...so even the best can get into trouble in low risk avalanche areas,,,yall needs to be very careful and mindful of the snow pack conditions in the back country....

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Chief Joseph
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PostSat Jan 07, 2017 8:26 am 
Conditions are probably similar to here in N Idaho, we have a 2" ice layer, then 6" compacted snow, then about a foot of powder on top, although I'm sure Montana has more powder. We have several building and none have slid. Spent several hours clearing the main house roof yesterday and plan to spend several more today. If I were to build in snow country I would always implement a very steep roof pitch, nearly as steep as an A-frame. Stay safe out there!

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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AlpineRose
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PostSat Jan 07, 2017 4:41 pm 
Consider what's happened to the snowpack in the past week along with what will happen in the next few days. High winds creating windslab (highly likely responsible for the recent Crystal fatality), a series of cold, clear nights causing hoarfrost formation, freezing rain predicted for tonight and tomorrow, followed by more new snow. Should make for some interesting conditions. Ongoing careful evaluation of every aspect of the terrain on one's trip remains necessary, even (and especially) with the current Moderate rating.

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RumiDude
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PostSat Jan 07, 2017 11:20 pm 
cdestroyer wrote:
he was an avid and experienced back country skier..the avalanche area was not posted as a great risk...so even the best can get into trouble in low risk avalanche areas
Statistics show that people with the most experience are the most likely to get caught in an avalanche. Rumi

"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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cartman
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PostSun Jan 08, 2017 11:29 am 
RumiDude wrote:
Statistics show that people with the most experience are the most likely to get caught in an avalanche.
Incorrect. Where did you hear that? Experience is a bell curve re: avalanche fatalities. Those with the least amount of experience are less likely to be caught because they don't often venture into avalanche terrain. Those with the most experience are less likely to be in an avalanche because they know how to expertly assess the terrain and avoid being caught. It's the people with some experience that are most likely to be caught. More likely to venture into avalanche terrain without sufficient experience assessing that terrain to avoid avalanches every time. This means people typically with Level One avy skills are actually more likely to be caught. Undoubtedly, thinking they know more than they do accounts for this as well. Bottom line: You will never know all there is to know. But you can know enough to stay safe. Be conservative especially when the weather has been variable and unpredictable. Here's a great article, one of the best you will find on the subject: Heuristic Traps in Avalanche Terrain

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RumiDude
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PostSun Jan 08, 2017 10:55 pm 
cartman wrote:
RumiDude wrote:
Statistics show that people with the most experience are the most likely to get caught in an avalanche.
Incorrect. Where did you hear that?
If I remember correctly, it was a study done in Europe. I searched for it here, because I believe I posted about it on this site but cannot find it. I seem to remember it was a study done in France and was mainly directed at climbers but included other sports as well. But there is also the article which you linked in this that indicates higher levels of avalanche training and experience do not translate into better decision making and less accidents. The reason is the heuristic traps which are a separate issue from avalanche slope assessment. I would note that I have linked to this same article at least once on this site and maybe more. Let's examine a few of it's findings about experience/training.
cartman wrote:
Those with the least amount of experience are less likely to be caught because they don't often venture into avalanche terrain. Those with the most experience are less likely to be in an avalanche because they know how to expertly assess the terrain and avoid being caught. It's the people with some experience that are most likely to be caught. More likely to venture into avalanche terrain without sufficient experience assessing that terrain to avoid avalanches every time. This means people typically with Level One avy skills are actually more likely to be caught. Undoubtedly, thinking they know more than they do accounts for this as well.
According to the article: "The blatancy of the hazard in avalanche accidents would be understandable if most victims had little understanding of avalanches. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the case. When accidents parties are categorized by the training level of the most skilled person in the party (Table 2), we find that almost half of the parties contained at least one person (often the leader) who had formal avalanche training and knew not only how to recognize the hazard, but also how to avoid or mitigate it. Almost two thirds of the parties were aware of the avalanche hazard, and still proceeded into the path anyway. Even more telling is the fact that exposure scores did not significantly decrease with training.3 Thus, all four levels of training appeared potentially susceptible to heuristic traps."
cartman wrote:
Those with the least amount of experience are less likely to be caught because they don't often venture into avalanche terrain.
This article doesn't directly confirm this, but it does confirm that these lesser avy trained people are less sensitive to the heuristic traps of avalanche decision making, though affected by the "expert halo". "Victims with basic avalanche training (the equivalent of a two-day recreational avalanche course) showed an overall decreased sensitivity to heuristic cues, but seemed to overestimate their ability to mitigate avalanche hazard in the presence of others (the social facilitation trap)."
cartman wrote:
Those with the most experience are less likely to be in an avalanche because they know how to expertly assess the terrain and avoid being caught.
The article did not confirm this but actually seemed to indicate otherwise. "It appears that formal avalanche education did not make victims in this study less likely to be in accidents. Across all levels of avalanche training, overall exposure scores remained about the same, suggesting that these individuals were in the business of trading off the risks of being in avalanche terrain with the perceived benefits of engaging in their chosen activity. In other words, these victims were apparently using their training to access avalanche terrain during dangerous conditions so they could more fully enjoy "their sports." Also: "Formal avalanche training did not appear to equip these victims with effective tools for decision making. If these victims had used the knowledge-based decision strategies that are commonly taught in avalanche courses, we would expect very few accidents under such obvious conditions. Instead, we find that even well-trained victims appeared to ignore easily-recognized signs of avalanche hazard. Thus it appears that they were either unwilling or unable to apply what they had learned." It seems that knowledge and experience (though experience is not formally addressed in this article, only tangentially.) are not as helpful for avoiding accidents as we might expect. The more experienced and knowledgeable are more susceptible to the heuristic traps of Familiarity and Social Facilitation as described in the article. Heuristic traps operate most often at a subconscious level, which is why most people regardless of their experience and training level are susceptible to them. Anyway, I will amend my remarks above by saying that experience level does not seem to matter much in avalanche deaths. The last few years we have seen a number of individuals whose experience level has been described as very high to have been avalanche victims. This would also apply to the two deaths in our area so far this year as well as the victim from Kalispell MT in the original post. Rumi

"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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AlpineRose
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PostSun Jan 08, 2017 11:26 pm 
The article on heuristics by Ian Mcammon in the above link illuminates why backcountry travelers venture into situations that make no sense to those of us sitting in our armchairs reading about their accidents after the fact. His basic conclusion is that no amount of knowledge and education - by itself - translates into clear thinking. The acquiring of knowledge and applying that knowledge to make good decisions are separate steps, governed by different human processes. These steps are separated by the huge gulf of human emotion and the unconscious.

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DIYSteve
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PostMon Jan 09, 2017 9:34 am 
cartman wrote:
Experience is a bell curve re: avalanche fatalities. Those with the least amount of experience are less likely to be caught because they don't often venture into avalanche terrain. Those with the most experience are less likely to be in an avalanche because they know how to expertly assess the terrain and avoid being caught.
Cite? That is contrary all the studies I have read. I recall reading a study with a conclusion similar to that cited by Rumi, i.e., that most avy deaths are of more experienced mountain travelers. That reflects my personal experience, i.e., all of my acquaintances who have died in avys (n = 10 or so) were very experienced, e.g., in 2002, 3 died in a party of 5 who collectively had 150 years of mountain travel, all with AIARE Level 2 or higher training and ski tour leaders for The Mountaineers. One of the dead individuals in that party had earned a reputation for taking on undue risk, but IME the other 4 were pretty conservative. (The 2 survivors never ski toured again in midwinter AFAIK.) A case in point is the death of 7 ski tourists in 2003 led by Ruedi Beglinger, a mountain guide of nonpareil experience in North America. See http://news.nationalpost.com/how-a-massive-avalanche-changed-b-c-s-backcountry-culture-and-shattered-one-guides-life ETA: The party caught by the 2012 Tunnel Creek avalanche (3 deaths) were well trained in avy assessment and very experienced. Note that avy death numbers directly relevant to most NWHikers are skewed by avy deaths of snowmobilers.

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Malachai Constant
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PostMon Jan 09, 2017 9:37 am 
In our circle A class the catch phrase was, " all the experts are dead".

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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DIYSteve
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PostMon Jan 09, 2017 9:45 am 
All the Experts Are Dead I recall reading that the phrase was first used with reference to bomb defusing squads in WWII. A similar saying among alpinists: "There are bold climbers and there are old climbers, but there are no old bold climbers."

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zephyr
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PostMon Jan 09, 2017 11:48 am 
DIYSteve wrote:
A similar saying among alpinists: "There are bold climbers and there are old climbers, but there are no old bold climbers."
Interesting... I grew up hearing this from my father often. He was a combat veteran from World War II. His experiences there had a dramatic impact on him and what he passed on to his children. When he returned he learned to fly small engine planes and had few adventures. What he had been taught was: "There are old pilots and bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots." ~z

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wolffie
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PostMon Jan 09, 2017 4:33 pm 
"Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect." — Captain A. G. Lamplugh famous aviation safety quotes "Nothing bad ever happens to me." -- wolffie

Some people have better things to do with their lives than walking the dog. Some don't.
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indyanajohns
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PostTue Jan 10, 2017 2:38 pm 
I only knew of Ben through friends and legend. This article has more about Ben, the accident and the amazing memorial skin up Big Mountain with more than 300 people to remember him- http://flatheadbeacon.com/2017/01/10/chasing-spirit-bear/ I think the massive turnout and outpouring of support is testament to the type of person he was.

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zephyr
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PostTue Jan 10, 2017 2:51 pm 
Wow. That's a great article. It describes the accident and the rescue well. Just goes to show that no matter how skilled and experienced one is, the mountain still has the upper hand. The tribute his friends and family was very moving. Thanks, indyanajohns for posting this. ~z

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cartman
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PostTue Jan 10, 2017 7:30 pm 
See this thread for continued avalanche discussion.

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