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Alpine Pedestrian
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Location: Stevens Pass
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PostSat Aug 19, 2017 5:49 pm 
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I appreciate your posting these updates, even though they make my heart sink.  For some reason Safari on my Mac hasn't been able to connect to inciweb for about 3 days, even though I've rebooted twice and reset the router.

I sincerely hope the fire doesn't make a run towards your place.
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
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Location: Mazama, WA
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PostSat Aug 19, 2017 6:31 pm 
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Alpine Pedestrian wrote:
sincerely hope the fire doesn't make a run towards your place.

Me too!  hockeygrin.gif
We have done everything to be prepared if it does come. Since the fire started 3 weeks ago I have done extensive tree limbing, brush clearing, constant rotating sprinklers and have aluminum foil cut and prepared to cover/wrap all decks, porches, balconies, wood piles etc. I am in much better shape then for the Needles fire but we lucked out that time and it missed us when the wind changed.
Also, have two excellent neighbors here at Beyond Lost who also have done extensive firewise prepping. We have a 22 acre triangle here north of Lost River/Harts Pass Rd that has served as a firebreak before.
That and some great fire fighters give me hope if it comes!
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Joey
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Joined: 05 Jun 2005
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Location: Redmond
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PostSat Aug 19, 2017 6:48 pm 
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One of the Gmap4 data overlay layers is the "Fire weather forecast".
For zone 685 the forecast is for fairly light winds main from the NW.  By Tuesday the wind is forecast to shift and come from the S and SW.
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
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Location: Mazama, WA
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Crazy Bob
PostSat Aug 19, 2017 7:11 pm 
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With the south wind comes heat for a couple of days. Then a "norther" blows through and much cooler for a couple of days. Tough part of watching this is knowing we are probably 8 weeks away from reaching the end of it with some decent rain and colder weather. Meanwhile we look up the river and watch the fire reports.
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker



Joined: 21 Jun 2009
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aka friendly hiker
PostSat Aug 19, 2017 8:59 pm 
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BeyondLost wrote:
We have done everything to be prepared if it does come. Since the fire started 3 weeks ago I have done extensive tree limbing, brush clearing, constant rotating sprinklers and have aluminum foil cut and prepared to cover/wrap all decks, porches, balconies, wood piles etc. I am in much better shape then for the Needles fire but we lucked out that time and it missed us when the wind changed.
Also, have two excellent neighbors here at Beyond Lost who also have done extensive firewise prepping. We have a 22 acre triangle here north of Lost River/Harts Pass Rd that has served as a firebreak before.
That and some great fire fighters give me hope if it comes!

Sounds excellent.  That's inspiring to read.  Just know that it's nerve-wracking for us "watching" you go through this.  I hope the weather cooperates and your luck holds out.   up.gif   ~z
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Kat
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Turtle Hiker
PostSun Aug 20, 2017 5:46 am 
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Ditto, appreciate all the first hand updates and hope the fire stays away!

P.S. "aluminum foil" - ? Must come in some pretty big rolls?
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



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Location: Mazama, WA
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Crazy Bob
PostSun Aug 20, 2017 6:41 am 
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60 pound rolls. 54 inches wide and 330 feert long. It is the stuff the FS uses to wrap buildings they are trying to save. Very expensive I might add! and hard to get no matter how willing you are to pay for it. We had been trying to get some for 3 years and finally got it about a month ago. Good timing there! :-)
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
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Location: Mazama, WA
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Crazy Bob
PostSun Aug 20, 2017 7:23 am 
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Update last night. We have hit 30,000+ acres.  frown.gif
Good to see an uptick in % contained!  smile.gif
Very smoky this AM but a lot of that is BC smoke. If it is like this tomorrow we will not see the clipse at all.

Total Personnel 382
Size 30,043 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained 27%
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ArcDome
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PostSun Aug 20, 2017 7:27 am 
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Here's a photo of a cabin at Hidden Lakes that has been wrapped:


During the fires in the Methow Valley some insurance companies were having customers houses wrapped as a precaution.
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
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Crazy Bob
PostMon Aug 21, 2017 6:03 am 
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If you have a metal roof and appropriate siding you have no need to wrap like that cabin, of course. Main thing is flat wooden surfaces and wood piles. The builder of our house loved decks, porches and balconies. I had to use 1000+ sq ft of foil just to cover those.
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
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Crazy Bob
PostMon Aug 21, 2017 1:21 pm 
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Finally a mention of the growth into Billy Cr and Pinnacle Cr. ;-) Very smoky this AM but cleared enough by 10:00 for a decent view of the eclipse. :-)
From InciWeb:
"
Basic Information
Current as of 8/21/2017, 11:37:08 AM
Incident Type Wildfire
Cause Human Caused
Date of Origin Sunday July 23rd, 2017 approx. 09:45 AM
Location Pasayten Wilderness, 27 miles NNW of Winthrop WA.
Incident Commander Jeff Andrews, Southwest Type 2 Team 5
Current Situation
Total Personnel 367
Size 30,524 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained 31%
Estimated Containment Date Sunday October 15th, 2017 approx. 12:00 AM
Fuels Involved
Timber stands consist of a mix of Fire, Spruce, and Pine. Heavy dead and down fuels are very receptive to spotting due to critically dry fuel moistures.
Significant Events
Fire behavior increased today under clear skies and lower RH in conjunction with critically dry fuels and steep topography. Observed fire behavior was backing and flanking with torching.
Outlook
Planned Actions
Continue close contact and coordination with Canada in regards to the northern part of the fire. Use aviation resources, as available, to keep the fire in check in the Pat, Eightmile, and Drake Creek Drainage. Crews will construct new alternate lines and strength existing contingency lines on the southern portion of the fire between main fire and multiple values at risk. utilization of heavy equipment will assist in the line preparation work (Masticator). Chippers will be deployed along roads to aid in fuels reduction and begin rehab work. IHC continues direct line construction on Pat Creek Ridge. They will be constructing direct line for two more operational periods.
Projected Incident Activity
The beginning of a significant warming and drying trend will cause fire behavior to escalate over the next few days. There will be some fire spread westward over the next few days in the Billy Creek/ Pinnacle Creek areas The fire will continue to burn through areas of unburned fuels in upper Drake Creek on the east side of the fire and will back northwest through unburned in Pasayten Creek. The fire has the potential to slowly move further into Pat Creek through backing and spotting from rollout. No fire is anticipated in Eight Mile Creek
Remarks
IHC to line spike for two more over night periods on the Pat creek Ridge. Risk management has been thoroughly evaluated with hazard mitigation performed to the greatest extent possible, including attaching a line medic to the IHC.
Current Weather
Weather Concerns
On Monday,an upper level high pressure ridge will build toward the Diamond Creek Fire. A substantial warming trend will begin,with 5 degree rise in late afternoon temperatures over Sunday, along with correspondingly lower Rh. Winds will mainly be influenced by local slope and valleys effects, favoring a light southerly wind at ridge top level."
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
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Crazy Bob
PostMon Aug 21, 2017 9:58 pm 
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10 day weather forecast show a prevailing wind between SW to NW. That would push the active burn areas back into previously burned areas. As a  result InciWeb predicts fire within the perimeter but little if any expansion of the perimeter. It will continue to burn, however, until we get fall rains probably late Sept or early October.
They are working on a line at Pat Creek which would be a big help if the wind ever switches back to NE or even N.
Not clear yet but looking better! :-)
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zephyr
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Joined: 21 Jun 2009
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aka friendly hiker
PostMon Aug 21, 2017 9:59 pm 
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BeyondLost wrote:
Not clear yet but looking better! :-)

Awesome.   up.gif   ~z
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sooperfly
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PostTue Aug 22, 2017 12:22 am 
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Took this from near Frosty Pass yesterday. Think this is Dollar Watch Mtn.

Diamond-Creek-Fire-Pic-8-20
Diamond-Creek-Fire-Pic-8-20
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BeyondLost
Crazy Bob



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Crazy Bob
PostTue Aug 22, 2017 10:22 am 
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sooperfly wrote:
Took this from near Frosty Pass yesterday. Think this is Dollar Watch Mtn.

Could you have been seeing Many Trails Peak? There was active burning there yesterday.
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