Forum Index > Trail Talk > Fire season ending rains possible about one week from now
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gb
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 2:54 pm 
This time rains may amount to something.

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cartman
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 3:12 pm 
Source? Links?

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zephyr
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 4:59 pm 
gb wrote:
This time rains may amount to something.
cartman wrote:
Source? Links?
And the title says: "Fire season ending rains possible about one week from now" Okay, just possibly he's referring to what I read in the Area Forecast Discussion. Scroll down to LONG TERM. Quote: LONG TERM...An upper trough will be over the area Wednesday and Thursday and we might squeeze out a few showers. Another weak disturbance will arrive late in the week. Nothing looks all that significant til later next Sunday and Monday when the first real front of fall should arrive...just beyond the forecast. (Emphasis mine.) Just an idea... ~z

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treeswarper
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 6:11 pm 
This sounds like the way it used to be. We'd get rains in September. But then it would dry out and we'd get the east winds and slash burns that were set during those rains would be getting away. Not to worry, there's not that much slash burning now.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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gb
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 7:26 pm 
gb wrote:
This time rains may amount to something.
500mb gfsx 10 day http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/8e/gfs_500p_8e.gif

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HermitThrush
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 8:53 pm 
I hope so!

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RichP
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 9:33 pm 
Bring it on!

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Pyrites
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PostSun Sep 10, 2017 10:08 pm 
Pyrites wrote: But fire season is likely near over. Why - you think it's going to rain soon? Sometimes the rains don't arrive till October or November. I own a calendar, with a photo, "Super Moon over the Central Cascades". The season changes. Rains are sometimes quite late. Fires can continue to burn for months then. But days get short, and humidity goes up. Fires burn much slower. At night they don't do much at all. You can work much closer, usually. Fires that are "full suppression" can have effective lines put around them, terrain willing. Fires like the one off in Indian Heaven can, and should burn around in those conditions.

Keep Calm and Carry On? Heck No. Stay Excited and Get Outside!
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ale_capone
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PostMon Sep 11, 2017 4:42 am 
cartman wrote:
Source? Links?
GB is the source. This is the link. clown.gif I don't even look at the weather anymore. I just visit nwhikers and check to see what GB's long term predictions are. When can I test my new green houses wind load capabilities? I'm thinking 220 gallons of water (55x4)and a yard of gravel will hold it in place, but I need rain for the barrels first. Will we get wind before I get my water? Thank you Mr B!

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Ancient Ambler
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PostMon Sep 11, 2017 6:22 am 
More support for a change to wetter weather in the NWS Climate Prediction Center's 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks, both of which on September 10 suggest below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for Washington, Oregon, Idaho and western Montana from next week out to September 24. That will be welcome if it pans out.

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Abert
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PostMon Sep 11, 2017 7:41 am 
Since I bought plane tickets to Denver yesterday for later this week after giving up on trying to guess on the weather and smoke for anywhere closer, I'd expect all sorts of improvement in the forecasts for the northwest in the coming days.

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Naches Hiker
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PostMon Sep 11, 2017 9:58 am 
The rains will only be a fire slowing event for most of the west. Lot os mop up will still have to be done after this weekend and next week. Also, models are varying for how much rain is supposed to fall. I've seen places that aren't going to get wetting rain (>.10") and some places are supposed to get more than 3" of rain.

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wanderwild
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PostTue Sep 12, 2017 3:49 pm 
Abert wrote:
Since I bought plane tickets to Denver yesterday for later this week after giving up on trying to guess on the weather and smoke for anywhere closer, I'd expect all sorts of improvement in the forecasts for the northwest in the coming days.
I did the exact same thing. Flying there Thursday night.

"Whatever your mountain, climb on."
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MtnGoat
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PostTue Sep 12, 2017 4:36 pm 
From Cliff Mass's weather blog

Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Pyrites
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PostTue Sep 12, 2017 10:04 pm 
Similar to stand made at Multnomah Lodge, there was a stand made at Waterton Lakes Townsite last night. The Kenow fire made a fifteen kilometer run from near the Continental Divide to east of town. Calgary Fire sent engines, two trucks (ladders) and fifty FF's two hundred miles to protect the famous Prince of Wales Hotel. It's that historical hotel that sits on top of a hill east of town. Someone has the foresight to provide water and hydrants. It sounds as if they lost few if any significant buildings in town. Evacuation sounds as if it went well, even if rate of spread was high. If you've been there recently you've seen the Park progressively reducing fuel load on edges and forested areas extending into town. The visitor center on the highway burned. I expect more will be public when evacuated residents return.

Keep Calm and Carry On? Heck No. Stay Excited and Get Outside!
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