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Jake Robinson Member
Joined: 02 Aug 2016 Posts: 521 | TRs | Pics
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HermitThrush Member
Joined: 14 Jan 2016 Posts: 384 | TRs | Pics Location: Brainerd Lakes Area, MN |
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pcg Member
Joined: 09 Jun 2012 Posts: 334 | TRs | Pics
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pcg
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Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:47 am
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treeswarper Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006 Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:03 pm
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Are these the same people who predicted last winter would be an El Nino winter?
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Just_Some_Hiker Member
Joined: 02 Jan 2013 Posts: 691 | TRs | Pics Location: Snoqualmie, WA |
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Bedivere Why Do Witches Burn?
Joined: 25 Jul 2008 Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics Location: The Hermitage |
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
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Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:23 am
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treeswarper wrote: | Are these the same people who predicted last winter would be an El Nino winter? |
??? Last winter was predicted to be La Nina.
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treeswarper Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006 Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:43 pm
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I recall the first prediction, which was much too early, calling for an El Nino winter. Then things changed. But this could turn into one of those Uh uh, Um huh your mama discussions so I will leave it at that. The only sure weather forecast comes from the ancient weather rock method.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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DIYSteve seeking hygge
Joined: 06 Mar 2007 Posts: 12655 | TRs | Pics Location: here now |
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DIYSteve
seeking hygge
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Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:27 pm
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Bedivere wrote: | ??? Last winter was predicted to be La Nina. |
Yup. One year ago the prediction for 2016-17 winter was likely weak La Nina. We skiers remember these things. I do not recall a mid-summer El Nino prediction, but if it happened it would have been very low confidence.
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treeswarper Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006 Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:57 pm
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I guess "we skiers" do not. I ski although not as much as I used to.
I still will wait for the weather rock to tell what it is doing.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:49 pm
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Quote: | EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 September 2017
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: There is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall
and winter 2017-18.
Over the last month, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). ENSO-neutral conditions were apparent in the weekly fluctuation of Niño-3.4 SST index values between -0.1°C and -0.6°C (Fig. 2). While temperature anomalies were variable at the surface, they became increasingly negative in the sub-surface ocean (Fig. 3), due to the shoaling of the thermocline across the east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Though remaining mostly north of the equator, convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific Ocean and slightly enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over a small region of the far western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were anomalously easterly over a small area of the east-central Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter (Fig. 6). However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (Fig. 7). Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 October 2017. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. |
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