Forum Index > Trail Talk > La Niña
 Reply to topic
Previous :: Next Topic
Author Message
Jake Robinson
Member
Member


Joined: 02 Aug 2016
Posts: 521 | TRs | Pics
Jake Robinson
Member
PostSat Sep 16, 2017 10:27 am 
It's starting to look like we could be in for a La Niña winter this year: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/09/la-nina-and-this-winters-weather.html?m=1

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
HermitThrush
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Jan 2016
Posts: 384 | TRs | Pics
Location: Brainerd Lakes Area, MN
HermitThrush
Member
PostSat Sep 16, 2017 10:32 am 
YES!!!!!!

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
pcg
Member
Member


Joined: 09 Jun 2012
Posts: 334 | TRs | Pics
pcg
Member
PostSat Sep 16, 2017 10:47 am 
Finally some good news!

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSat Sep 16, 2017 5:03 pm 
Are these the same people who predicted last winter would be an El Nino winter?

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Just_Some_Hiker
Member
Member


Joined: 02 Jan 2013
Posts: 691 | TRs | Pics
Location: Snoqualmie, WA
Just_Some_Hiker
Member
PostSat Sep 16, 2017 7:19 pm 
I'm stoked.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



Joined: 25 Jul 2008
Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics
Location: The Hermitage
Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostSun Sep 17, 2017 11:23 am 
treeswarper wrote:
Are these the same people who predicted last winter would be an El Nino winter?
??? Last winter was predicted to be La Nina.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSun Sep 17, 2017 1:43 pm 
I recall the first prediction, which was much too early, calling for an El Nino winter. Then things changed. But this could turn into one of those Uh uh, Um huh your mama discussions so I will leave it at that. The only sure weather forecast comes from the ancient weather rock method.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
DIYSteve
seeking hygge



Joined: 06 Mar 2007
Posts: 12655 | TRs | Pics
Location: here now
DIYSteve
seeking hygge
PostSun Sep 17, 2017 2:27 pm 
Bedivere wrote:
??? Last winter was predicted to be La Nina.
Yup. One year ago the prediction for 2016-17 winter was likely weak La Nina. We skiers remember these things. I do not recall a mid-summer El Nino prediction, but if it happened it would have been very low confidence.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSun Sep 17, 2017 2:57 pm 
I guess "we skiers" do not. I ski although not as much as I used to. I still will wait for the weather rock to tell what it is doing. biggrin.gif

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostSun Sep 17, 2017 4:49 pm 
Quote:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 September 2017 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch Synopsis: There is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18. Over the last month, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). ENSO-neutral conditions were apparent in the weekly fluctuation of Niño-3.4 SST index values between -0.1°C and -0.6°C (Fig. 2). While temperature anomalies were variable at the surface, they became increasingly negative in the sub-surface ocean (Fig. 3), due to the shoaling of the thermocline across the east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Though remaining mostly north of the equator, convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific Ocean and slightly enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over a small region of the far western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were anomalously easterly over a small area of the east-central Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral. A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter (Fig. 6). However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (Fig. 7). Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 October 2017. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
   All times are GMT - 8 Hours
 Reply to topic
Forum Index > Trail Talk > La Niña
  Happy Birthday noahk!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum