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Jake Robinson
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Joined: 02 Aug 2016
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BigBrunyon
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Joined: 19 Mar 2015
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Location: the fitness gyms!! |
Only the true competitors will be able to keep the pace on the hot, dusty, steep, and exposed slopes this summer!!
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mbravenboer
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Joined: 20 Oct 2013
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Location: Seattle |
Bleh. Better get your exciting trips in during June & July before everything is on fire.
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jinx'sboy
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Joined: 30 Jul 2008
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Location: on a great circle route |
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AlpineRose
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Joined: 08 May 2012
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Oh joy. I still haven't gotten rid of my cough from last year's smoky air. And 40% of the Pasayten is still left to burn. Note the warmer and drier than normal forecast goes all the way to Feb, 2019. The warmer than normal forecast all the way through next summer.
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
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gb
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 Sat May 19, 2018 7:03 am |
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I'm sure temperatures (at least freezing levels) have averaged 5-6 degrees above average since the end of the spring snows. Above normal temperatures are a pretty good bet looking forward as that is what global warming brings. We are going up against averages that were set in a different era. The longer the record of any particular weather station the more likely this is to be true.
Dry summers appear to also be the norm regionally now, as well. The NW used to be a temperate climate, now it is more of a Mediterranean climate with wet winters and dry summers.
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thunderhead
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The PNW has always been a wet winter dry summer climate.
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fairweather friend
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Joined: 31 May 2012
Posts: 322 | TRs | Pics
Location: Not so dispersed |
| thunderhead wrote: | | The PNW has always been a wet winter dry summer climate. |
Yeah, well it wasn't long ago that August was a wonderful month for backpacking in the North Cascades. Temps in the mid-70's and an occasional rain shower to keep the fires and dust down. Now an August hike is scorching hot and the air is filled with smoke. Can't see a thing through the haze (forget photography!) and all the vegetation is crispy dry. If this happens again this summer, I'm heading to the coast instead of the mountains. Yes, it can still get smokey out there, but at least the air is a little cooler and you can always take a swim if you get too hot.
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Ski
><((((°>
Joined: 28 May 2005
Posts: 12831 | TRs | Pics
Location: tacoma |
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Ski
><((((°>
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Sat May 19, 2018 9:22 am |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | The PNW has always been a wet winter dry summer climate. |
^ This was not the case a few decades ago. I have seen more summers where it rained from the second week of August until just after Labor Day than I care to remember.
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
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gb
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Sat May 19, 2018 9:29 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | The PNW has always been a wet winter dry summer climate. |
True, but not to the extent of recent years dating to the mid 80's. An easy gauge of this is #of consecutive days without rainfall. Before the mid-80's a stretch of 30 days without rainfall was all but unheard of. Look at last summer or 2016 or 2015......
Historic rainfall in Seattle from memory is about 2-2-1/2" in June, about 1.25" in July and around 2" in August. I am sure you can find the exact numbers but these are close. When you go - what was it 60 days without rainfall - it is more than hard to reach these averages.
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
Joined: 25 Jul 2008
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Location: The Hermitage |
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
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Sun May 20, 2018 9:00 pm |
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There used to be an old saying about the weather in the Cascades - "If it's not raining, it soon will be." That was true in the summer months. Not so much any more.
There is a reason everything is catching on fire around here in the summers now and it isn't "mismanagement of the forests." The forests are not significantly more overgrown or denser now than they were 30 years ago, especially not in wilderness areas where they've never been logged.
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006
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Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Tue May 22, 2018 4:27 pm |
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| Bedivere wrote: | | There used to be an old saying about the weather in the Cascades - "If it's not raining, it soon will be." That was true in the summer months. Not so much any more.
There is a reason everything is catching on fire around here in the summers now and it isn't "mismanagement of the forests." The forests are not significantly more overgrown or denser now than they were 30 years ago, especially not in wilderness areas where they've never been logged. |
Ahh, but you must also consider that wilderness fires were once extinguished, no matter what caused the fire, so wilderness was affected by management. That's what smokejumpers used to specialize at.
Because of past fire suppression, timbered wilderness areas may be out of kilter and overgrown/overstocked. Note the word "may".
http://www.northcascadessmokejumperbase.com
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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DIYSteve
seeking hygge
Joined: 06 Mar 2007
Posts: 12655 | TRs | Pics
Location: here now |
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DIYSteve
seeking hygge
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Tue May 22, 2018 5:39 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | The PNW has always been a wet winter dry summer climate. |
Dunno about always, but certainly true in recorded human history. WA Cascades have the largest precipitation swing (i.e., winter wet, summer dry) of any place in the lower 48.
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thunderhead
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Well ya, if you go back to the ice age, then precip patterns would have been different.
But once the pacific is ice-free(mostly), the seasonal switch at our location is pretty much locked in.
The summertime rain gauge data show no significant trend over time:
Data from NWS/Plots by cliff mass.
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
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gb
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Thu May 24, 2018 2:22 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Well ya, if you go back to the ice age, then precip patterns would have been different.
But once the pacific is ice-free(mostly), the seasonal switch at our location is pretty much locked in.
The summertime rain gauge data show no significant trend over time:
Data from NWS/Plots by cliff mass. |
Statistics can be used to support a position depending on the period chosen and other factors. Drawing the trend line from 1895 supports your position. Drawing it from 1965 which is about 20 years before significant changes began to show up would not. Instead of looking at the trend line, I looked at the graph itself. In the past 30-40 years the summer variance has decreased and less than average summer precipitation is more frequent.
My observation since I have been very active outdoors since the late 60's is that summer weather comes earlier, summer rain storms (which were seldom heavy) less frequent, cloudless periods more frequent, extended dry periods more common (some record setting), and average freezing levels higher. This is, of course, reflected in accelerated retreat of glaciers especially since the mid- 80's.
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