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gb
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gb
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PostTue May 29, 2018 4:05 pm 
thunderhead wrote:
Why are you cherry picking only the latest 30 years GB? Why not look at the entire period of record? You couldn't possibly be intentionally chopping off data that you don't want to see, could you? LOL
Because that is where the changes have occurred. See Peltoms and Peyto for glacial mass balance changes and acceleration in annual ablation. The cause - less cloudiness at elevation.
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CO2 is a far cry in recent years from what it was in 1895.
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And yet precip back then was the same as it is now. Uh oh!
Not on your graph. You are playing loose with words. Winter precipitation (at least in the Pacific NW) appears to be increasing, summer precipitation and cloud cover is decreasing (let me remind you - lowland sites don't matter not at all). Winter snowfall at Baker appears to be increasing Yet mass balance loss on glaciers is accelerating

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BigBrunyon
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PostTue May 29, 2018 5:30 pm 
thunderhead wrote:
Why are you cherry picking only the latest 30 years GB? Why not look at the entire period of record?
Because global changes have begun to manifest themselves in the last 30 years. That's why.

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PostTue May 29, 2018 7:34 pm 
thunderhead wrote:
Why are you cherry picking only the latest 30 years GB? Why not look at the entire period of record?
gb wrote:
Because that is where the changes have occurred.
^ this. It might be worth noting that there has been no accurate record of snowpack levels on the west slope of the Olympic Peninsula (other than the relatively recent installation of a "Snotel" station near Low Divide.) In a previous post I noted that the river has been running low for the last couple decades- record low level (as I recall) was in 2002, when small children (3 and 4-year-olds) were playing out in the middle of the Queets just below the mouth of Sams River. That condition (and the last several years of record low water levels) is a direct result of lower snowpacks at the upper altitudes (4000-8000 ft.) and lower summer precipitation levels, evidenced by long stretches of the trail under the canopy which are now dry all summer, as opposed to their historic condition of being mud wallows all year round. (FTR: I don't fish the Sol Duc, Bogachiel, Hoh, Quinault, or Humptulips, so I cannot speak to water levels on those drainages, all of which feed from different sources. The one river I do know, however, has nowhere near as much water in the ditch during the summer as it did historically, and the watershed is receiving a significantly lower amount of late spring and summer precipitation, evidenced by the changes in the seasonal evolvement of the native flora (i.e., alder leaves turning, cottonwood fluff appearing, etc.) While that's admittedly a tiny microcosm of the overall trend, it nonetheless shows the pattern that's developed over the last three or four decades in Western Washington. I'm okay with your dismissing anecdotal evidence from laymen like myself - I actually find it rather amusing. Do carry on - your charts and graphs and putative "empirical evidence" provide an endless source of amusement. wink.gif

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PostTue May 29, 2018 8:19 pm 
Bless the Maker and His water. Bless the coming and going of Him.

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gb
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PostWed May 30, 2018 7:07 am 
Ski, some of the anecdotal evidence carries quite a bit of weight. For instance; not only glacial observations and river levels but especially observations of treeline. I see this mostly, or at least notice it mostly, in larch country east of the Cascade crest where in many areas that used to be meadow there are now numerous small trees in the range of a few inches to trees with 3-4" diameter and ten to fifteen feet tall. From the gymnosperm website it appears that a larch of about 1" diameter is on average around 25 years old, so these trees represent a rather significant change in climate regarding the length of the growing season over the past 100 years or so. Which brings me back to the Queets. Perhaps one of the most remarkable places I've visited was the headwaters of the Queets at Dodwell Rixon Pass in 1994, the only time I traversed the Bailey Range. From, is it, Three Prune Lakes? and especially near Dodwell Rixon Pass it was remarkable to me how low the treeline was from observation. It was as low as 3000 to 3500' and was testimony to recent times when deep snowpack persisted well through summer. Those snowpack depths and their persistence don't make sense in the modern era. I wonder what this area looks like now and to what extent the evidence of what will soon be a new forest is currently different than it was in 1994. That area, of course, was of paramount importance to the Queets River. A century ago much of the Dodwell Rixon Pass area may have been under ice. It seems a folly now. Just across the divide is the Elwha Snowfinger which was too broken up for me to use as an exit on that latter September trip. I remember being awed by that area and amazed by the Elwha Snowfinger in a Don McCune adventure video of the 60's or early 70's. Don McCune and Exploration Northwest and Captain Puget Don McCune backpacking the Bailey Range I would imagine in the not too distant past it was a semi-permanent feature. Although the evidence from the trees is obvious, only individuals who made numerous trips across the Bailey Range would have seen the change in snowpack over a few decades. But the trees tell that there has been huge change, and relatively recently.

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thunderhead
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PostWed May 30, 2018 8:24 am 
Quote:
Because that is where the changes have occurred.
Only because you have intentionally chopped off data to make it appear as if those changes have occurred. The entire period of record, which is almost always more accurate than smaller periods, shows no significant precip changes. It is interesting how many people freak out over trends that appear only due to improper understanding of basic stats.

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PostWed May 30, 2018 8:31 am 
Quote:
Do carry on - your charts and graphs and putative "empirical evidence" provide an endless source of amusement. wink.gif
Ya, who needs evidence when you can just say you remember things? lol.

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gb
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PostWed May 30, 2018 9:32 am 
thunderhead wrote:
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Because that is where the changes have occurred.
Only because you have intentionally chopped off data to make it appear as if those changes have occurred. The entire period of record, which is almost always more accurate than smaller periods, shows no significant precip changes. It is interesting how many people freak out over trends that appear only due to improper understanding of basic stats.
Get off your high horse, Mr. BS. You have no clue what other people know or their backgrounds. A longer period of a graph shows what it should - a longer period of a graph. You probably are unaware that CO2 changes are not linear, they are exponential. And then there are climate lag times.... Here for your education is the graph of CO2, albrhtmd: Atmospheric CO2 is not what it used to be for 400,000 years at least It would be very naive to believe that temperature and other climatic changes would be linear.. Your attempt to fit a line to the graph fools you into being unable to read the graph.

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gb
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PostWed May 30, 2018 9:57 am 
thunderhead wrote:
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That's not a given, as the evidence shows that the warmer weather is making it harder for our forests to regenerate after wildfires. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-12/tuom-sfr121317.php
There are also studies like this that suggest the opposite is broadly true, that we are improving plant growth over most of the world
You again mislead. The article was about forest regeneration not plant growth which is also not projected to be better because there are other variables in play besides CO2. The ongoing Stanford study provides the best information in this regard. 17 year Stanford study But as to forest regeneration. Forests need water and warmer temperatures result in higher soil evaporation. Then, too, glacial studies and forest fire studies show that the spring starts earlier and the summer is not only warmer but drier (disregarding your irrelevant lowland data). See the above Peyto Munro 2007 study which was in effect for a long period of time. Your information is old, not to the point, and is proving to be inaccurate: Mid latitude summer drying

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PostWed May 30, 2018 9:59 am 
I know that you cannot comprehend basic stats, and that is enough. Ignoring the bigger picture to focus on a smaller less robust sample... Rank amateur move. You also can't even remember my name or what the discussion is about. Who mentioned that other guy or linear CO2 or 400k years ago or any of that other nonsense you just posted? Where did any of that unrelated nonsense even come from?

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PostWed May 30, 2018 10:05 am 
Quote:
Mid latitude summer drying
Directly contradicted by all the data just posted. Next.

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gb
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PostWed May 30, 2018 10:08 am 
thunderhead wrote:
I know that you cannot comprehend basic stats, and that is enough. Ignoring the bigger picture to focus on a smaller less robust sample... Rank amateur move. You also can't even remember my name or what the discussion is about. Who mentioned that other guy or linear CO2 or 400k years ago or any of that other nonsense you just posted? Where did any of that unrelated nonsense even come from?
You are a bit slow witted. You drew a straight line to fit data on your graph and pretended that the last 30 years don't matter.

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gb
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PostWed May 30, 2018 10:10 am 
thunderhead wrote:
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Mid latitude summer drying
Directly contradicted by all the data just posted. Next.
You missed this: Your information is old, not to the point, and is proving to be inaccurate: Mid latitude summer drying

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PostWed May 30, 2018 10:13 am 
So in addition to no change in the pacific NW, there is no significant trend for the entire country either? I am shocked! Scary sounding news articles say the world is flooding, or drought will kill all our plants, or everything is going to burn down. But there is actually no change in the data? How could this be?

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Malachai Constant
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PostWed May 30, 2018 10:18 am 
WTF is this thread doing in Trail Talk, it should be consigned to the Stewardship gulag. Just more personal bickering.

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