[willnich]

I have a permit for Colchuck Zone this Friday and had planned on going with my brothers. One of my brothers has asthma and the smoke has us pretty worried. Anyone live near the area or have been up to the area recently? Permits are so hard to get we would hate to not go but having an asthma attack in the middle of nowhere is also not ideal. The weather forecasts say the smoke should get better but its so close to Cougar Creek I am a little worried. Any local knowledge would be appreciated. Thanks Nick

[rbuzby]

The forecast is still calling for widespread haze and smoke. Here is my opinion: I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be hiking right now. I was getting sick of the smoke standing by the road for 20 minutes waiting for a bus today. Just standing there. If I had asthma, I would not go hiking, and would not even think twice about it. I went hiking last weekend in the smoke, and I won't be doing it again. I think it would feel crappy hiking into the enchantos in this smoke, and I don't have asthma.

[Randito]

HTH: http://aqicn.org/city/usa/washington/leavenworth/evans-st/

[willnich]

Sounds like I should trust my instinct and avoid the area. Its unfortunate to have 5 days off work and by pack ready to go and nowhere in Oregon or Washington where we can go.

[mbravenboer]

It's hard to say. A few different forecasts: Aasgard forecast - https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.82597643136978&lat=47.48554096640666 HRRR-Smoke Surface smoke for Thursday 11pm (forecast doesn't go further yet) : https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=hrrr_smoke:&runtime=2018082218&plot_type=trc1_z0sfc&fcst=36&time_inc=60&num_times=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR-Smoke%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=z0&adtfn=1 HRRR-Smoke Vertically integrated smoke for Thursday 11pm: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=hrrr_smoke:&runtime=2018082218&plot_type=trc1_z0int&fcst=36&time_inc=60&num_times=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR-Smoke%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=z0&adtfn=1 Canadian BlueSky: http://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/viewer/run/ops/BSC-CA-01/current/ As you can see, the mountain forecast shows haze for the Enchantments, but the smoke forecast is inconsistent with that. I'd say that the smoke forecast is more precise. BlueSky from Canada does show things to be a bit worse during the day Friday, but that may be temporary. There has not been a good opportunity to go out for a while, so maybe it's wishful thinking, but this weekend actually does look promising. As long as the wind is directly west and the fire is east of you, I'd say it might be doable. The other risk is the Olympics fire, but it's not that big. There is even a small chance of rain in Leavenworth on Sunday, which is an indication of the strength of the incoming marine air. Edit: included BlueSky

[neek]

Can he wear a mask? I know it sounds silly but I know a smoke-sensitive hiker who swears by this. Presumably your brother is prepared for an asthma attack regardless, whenever he ventures out. Also everyone's case is different. My wife hasn't had problems hiking in the current conditions. Does his doctor respond to emails?

[willnich]

Thanks for all of the good info. He is prepared as one can be with his long acting and rescue inhalers. We could try a mask and see if it helps. I think we could do it but we will have to decide if it would be fun when worried the whole time. I think I know what his doctor would say unfortunately... I was hoping someone near by would say the smoke is not as bad as it looks but it sounds like mildly hazy to moderate smoke with a potential to clear up given a few days. Too bad the permits don't let us delay a few days.

[mbravenboer]

If you check the updated forecasts Thursday afternoon, then you could still decide to go elsewhere if the Enchantments doesn't look good yet. It looks like there should be some clear areas at least this weekend.

[lemArts]

I'm in a similar situation. I have a Core Permit starting Sunday after 6-7 years of trying. Seriously bummed about this smoke right now.

[texasbb]

Hard to say. I've hiked near big fires before and had one day be a lung scorcher and the next day quite nice. If it were me with a Core Zone permit, I'd plan on going right up till I knew for sure I shouldn't, and might even go then. But I'm not very sensitive to smoke, so it would only be my actual health at stake.

[Bootpathguy]

Leavenworth webcam https://leavenworth.org/weatherwebcams/

[gb]

It doesn't look very good if you look at the Windy website and compare 5000' winds to the location of fires. The relevant fires are the Maple in the SE Olympics, The Cougar and Twisp/Mcleod fires along the Cascasde Crest north, numerous fires on the northern trip of Vancouver Island, and a sea of fires throughout the interior of Southern BC. The wind is good (excepting a bit from the Maple fire and residual) through Friday. Saturday is NW which might barely be OK excepting Vancouver Island smoke; but later Saturday through Tuesday mid-day the winds would bring in both North Cascades and Cougar smoke but also BC interior smoke. To make it worse, by Monday/Tuesday winds are light northerly so it will just sit and stew. By Tuesday PM and through about Saturday the following week, if forecasts are accurate, winds are favorable once again except may be strong enough to explode fire growth.

[willnich]

Ya. We decided not to go. It doesn't seem worth it. We will just have to wait for a while for another permit and go from there. Maybe try to day hike it in September. Thanks everyone for the info

[Downhill]

I live in the Icicle Canyon about 2 miles past the road leading to Stuart/Colchuck TH. Today is the clearest day I've seen in 3 weeks. Earlier in the week, I couldn't see across the canyon but today is mostly blue skies. That's not to say there's not still haze/smoke - obviously, the fires are still burning. It's very variable day-to-day and conditions are driven by the prevailing wind speed and direction. The upcoming forecast this weekend and for the next 4 days is for cooler temps and winds in the NW 5-12 mph range (in town) so that could keep the smoke moving away from the region. I have no medical training and no expertise in asthma risks, so treat my opinion accordingly, but if I was in your situation, I would go ahead with your trip, make assessments en route and turn back if it seems unhealthy. Have a plan B for these days and revert to this as needed.

[lemArts]

We've also decided not to go. The forecast shows "Widespread haze. Widespread smoke." every day we were going to be out there. We are gonna head way east to the Sawtooth Wilderness in Idaho instead. Forecast looks much better (several clear days - pretty cold). Maybe it won't take 6-7 years to get my next Core permit.