Forum Index > Public Lands Stewardship > Prof Cliff Mass on Climate Change "control" effort
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Brushwork
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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 6:26 pm 
I'm speaking of the judgement that demeans or puts down people.

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catsp
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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 6:53 pm 
“But in the real world, nothing is far better than poorly written legislation“ Unfortunately it appears you simply didn’t understand my post. Some people believe that the imperfect legislation is preferable to no legislation (its pros and cons netted out are not only a net positive, but also net positive as compared to no legislation). So for those people, choosing the former over the latter is perfectly sensible. Because they feel the imperfect something is better than nothing, it’s a completely valid reason to vote in favor.

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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 7:00 pm 
catsp wrote:
"...the imperfect something is better than nothing, it’s a completely valid reason to vote in favor..."
Clearly in your mind, you believe that is true. I do not. I cannot control your decision making process.
Brushwork wrote:
"...the judgement that demeans or puts down people..."
A first-grade elementary teacher telling a student that 2 + 2 does not equal 5 is not "demeaning" or "putting them down", it is pointing out fact. Telling someone that they're being fooled is simply pointing out fact. Some people want to be fooled. I get that. I spent my entire working career in sales and marketing. People pay money to be fooled. Every day. I'm not the least bit concerned about "feelings" here. "Feelings" don't have anything to do with facts.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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catsp
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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 7:02 pm 
Ski wrote:
catsp wrote:
"...his statement about the significance of Eucalyptus was kind of nutty..."
You might want to take the time to do a little research on the impacts of the introduction of Eucalyptus into the forests of central Portugal and its effects on wildfires there.
You might want to take a little time to ensure you’re quoting the right person.

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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 7:06 pm 
Quote:
We are already seeing substantial global warming effects on the West coast
Utterly wrong. We see a minor change in some variables, and no change in others.

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catsp
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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 7:06 pm 
“Telling someone that they're being fooled is simply pointing out fact.“ Only if it’s true. But you have no way of knowing if anyone here is being “fooled.” It’s just your opinion, and a great example of things you continue to say are fact based on nothing more than your opinion and belief that they are.

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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 8:52 pm 
catsp wrote:
You might want to take a little time to ensure you’re quoting the right person.
sorry about that. fixed. you might want to take a little time to actually do a little research on the initiative you're apparently in support of - try reading the fine print. the State should have mailed you a free copy of the voters pamphlet. if you don't have one you can pick one up at the Post Office. the facts have been pointed out here several times. apparently they don't fit your agenda, so you've chosen to ignore them, supporting that with the "something is better than nothing" argument.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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PostWed Oct 24, 2018 10:03 pm 
“you might want to take a little time to actually do a little research on the initiative you're apparently in support of - try reading the fine print.” Again with the fallacious assertion that anyone who reaches a conclusion different than yours must be less informed. But I’ve little doubt that more than 90% of the people who have opined and will vote on it have not, and will not ever read it (and there is no fine print). “the facts have been pointed out here several times. apparently they don't fit your agenda, so you've chosen to ignore them” Well, it’s already been made pretty clear that we don’t agree on what we view as an actual “fact.” But even on those things we might agree constitute facts, that someone weighs or values them differently is not the same as ignoring them.

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gb
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PostThu Oct 25, 2018 3:08 am 
Ski wrote:
gb wrote:
"...his statement about the significance of Eucalyptus was kind of nutty..."
You might want to take the time to do a little research on the impacts of the introduction of Eucalyptus into the forests of central Portugal and its effects on wildfires there.
Maybe that is where Mass got confused: By confusing Portugal with US fire statistics. And, of course, looking at the entire US for fire starts (and even largely ignoring fire acreage) greatly dilutes what is actually happening. The West Coast is seeing the most dramatic effects of climate change - drought and hotter springs and summers. And that is where the great increases in wildfires are taking place. Periodically, Georgia and Florida have seen drought and fires - but not consistently - but the rest of the US, not so much. For Georgia and Florida, the fires are likely to have been on La Nina years, which are not increasing.

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PostThu Oct 25, 2018 3:11 am 
MtnGoat wrote:
Doing the wrong thing is never better than doing nothing. For one thing, passage of this and it's costs and inevitable failure are going to make other rounds attempting to deal with the same problem easier to push back on.
You are pushing a couple of straw men here. You don't know of which you speak in this last statement.

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PostThu Oct 25, 2018 3:50 am 
gb wrote:
Maybe that is where Mass got confused: By confusing Portugal with US fire statistics.
Not a clue. I recall you bringing up Eucalyptus a while back - a month or so back - and fires in Portugal. I wasn't even aware Portugal had any "forest" to speak of until then, so I fired up a browser window and started reading. Looked to me like they made a hell of a mistake in encouraging the planting of Eucalyptus there mixed in with the native pine, and now they can't get rid of it because the cut-off plants send up new growth - like cutting down Black Locust. Sounds like evil stuff. I don't know how much Eucalyptus is growing in California. Last time I noticed any there was down near Drakes Bay and that was in 1981 - my memory of all that is rather fuzzy, especially at this hour. (The trains are keeping me awake rumbling through the Ruston tunnel right now.)
gb wrote:
The West Coast is seeing the most dramatic effects of climate change - drought and hotter springs and summers. And that is where the great increases in wildfires are taking place.
Unless I'm mistaken, there have been some hellishly big fires in Colorado, all along the Front Range and over on the east side near Durango, and unless I'm mistaken a lot of that was (at least in part) caused by beetle kill, which is (as I understand) exacerbated by the warmer temperatures and drought. I would contend that it's not only the coastal states that are seeing increases in fire activity over the course of the last couple decades. I'm also going to submit that the northern half of California was overdue for some major fires. There were some small ones east of Whiskeytown when I drove from Redding to the coast in 1998, but they put those out in fairly short order. Other little fires popped up and were suppressed during the last 20 years from the Redding area north to the border as well. (Seems like from 1998 until about 2008 I was driving back and forth to Redding at least once or twice a year, and damn near every time there was a fire burning somewhere.) I think their suppression efforts caused the situation to come to that proverbial "critical mass" stage where something had to give - and it was the manzanita and the rest of the fuel load that had built up over the years. Feel free to correct me here - like I said, the trains woke me up and I'm a bit goofy right now - only about half awake.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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PostThu Oct 25, 2018 7:29 am 
Ski wrote:
gb wrote:
Maybe that is where Mass got confused: By confusing Portugal with US fire statistics.
Not a clue. I recall you bringing up Eucalyptus a while back - a month or so back - and fires in Portugal. I wasn't even aware Portugal had any "forest" to speak of until then, so I fired up a browser window and started reading. Looked to me like they made a hell of a mistake in encouraging the planting of Eucalyptus there mixed in with the native pine, and now they can't get rid of it because the cut-off plants send up new growth - like cutting down Black Locust. Sounds like evil stuff. I don't know how much Eucalyptus is growing in California. Last time I noticed any there was down near Drakes Bay and that was in 1981 - my memory of all that is rather fuzzy, especially at this hour. (The trains are keeping me awake rumbling through the Ruston tunnel right now.)
gb wrote:
The West Coast is seeing the most dramatic effects of climate change - drought and hotter springs and summers. And that is where the great increases in wildfires are taking place.
Unless I'm mistaken, there have been some hellishly big fires in Colorado, all along the Front Range and over on the east side near Durango, and unless I'm mistaken a lot of that was (at least in part) caused by beetle kill, which is (as I understand) exacerbated by the warmer temperatures and drought. I would contend that it's not only the coastal states that are seeing increases in fire activity over the course of the last couple decades. I'm also going to submit that the northern half of California was overdue for some major fires. There were some small ones east of Whiskeytown when I drove from Redding to the coast in 1998, but they put those out in fairly short order. Other little fires popped up and were suppressed during the last 20 years from the Redding area north to the border as well. (Seems like from 1998 until about 2008 I was driving back and forth to Redding at least once or twice a year, and damn near every time there was a fire burning somewhere.) I think their suppression efforts caused the situation to come to that proverbial "critical mass" stage where something had to give - and it was the manzanita and the rest of the fuel load that had built up over the years. Feel free to correct me here - like I said, the trains woke me up and I'm a bit goofy right now - only about half awake.
Ski, it wasn't me that brought up the fires in Portugal or Eucalyptus except in regard to this thread about the wisdom of Cliff Mass as an unbiased observer. When I said West Coast I was referring to the Western US which would include the Coast, Intermountain Basin, and the immediate slopes of the Rockies. Colorado had numerous fires this year but most were not large according to my following of Inciweb this year. I went to Colorado in mid-September for my nephew's wedding and was deliberating based on smoke and weather whether I would simply fly for a few days or drive and spend a couple of weeks hiking. I watched Inciweb, satellite images, weather models for mid and upper airflow, HRRR smoke forecasts, and web cameras in Telluride and Aspen. The fire near Durango was somewhat less relevant for me because of the wind direction. The big concerns were the fires in Central Utah and the nearly constant train of smoke from Northern California and Oregon fires that extended clockwise from those fires and across Central and Southern Wyoming and Northern Utah and Northern Colorado. Since my concern was south of I 70 I ended up having a pretty smoke free hiking trip near Aspen, Crescent Butte, and Telluride. There were only two days where there was visible haze -that from Utah. The SW slope of the Colorado Rockies was generally under light S to SW winds except for the random day here or there. There was a very large fire that closed Highway 6 from Spanish Fork to Green River on our drive over. That was the first time that area had burnt extensively at least since 1991 when I started going to Southern Utah. And I think that is the point; that although, as you say, it was not uncommon to pass fires between Grants Pass and Redding, they were just not nearly as big until really the past decade. As obvious examples this year there were the giant Mendocino and Ranch Fires and one we've not mentioned, the Klondike fire west of Rogue River which is now at 172,000 acres after explosive growth late last week. Those were the main fires affecting my planning of the trip to Colorado (as well as the Utah fires) because of a pretty consistent wind pattern around a dome of high pressure in the SW.

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PostThu Oct 25, 2018 10:30 am 
I'm not commenting one way or the other in terms of support, as I've already voted and don't give a rats how any of you choose to, but I do want to say that Cliff Mass belongs in the cultural dumpster of the PNW. He was so well respected and since he decided to turn his attention to promoting his (very weird and narrow of perspective) politics he's become a joke. I don't care how right about the weather my crazy uncles are, I'm not going to listen to their crazy.

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PostThu Oct 25, 2018 11:54 am 
gb wrote:
And I think that is the point; that although, as you say, it was not uncommon to pass fires between Grants Pass and Redding, they were just not nearly as big until really the past decade.
... and therein I think lies the crux of it. In the context of the fires in Northern California/Southern Oregon (as you noted Grants Pass to Redding): If I am understanding you correctly, your contention is that the larger fires of the last decade are caused primarily by climate change/global warming. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you've been saying in that regard. I would contend that while climate change/global warming may well have had a significant effect, the suppression of the smaller fires over a course of decades and the consequent build-up of fuel load was more a factor in the huge fires of the last decade or so. (Include there the "Biscuit Fire" of 2004 in southwest Oregon.)

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PostThu Oct 25, 2018 12:26 pm 
Quote:
I don't care how right about the weather my crazy uncles are
Cliff Mass is a respected member of the scientific + atmospheric physics community who more often than not takes a moderate/middle ground political position. This angers extremists, who generally have no intellectually robust argument of their own, and simply join the howling mobs that have become the face of both sides of the American political spectrum. It is pathetic and dishonest to a high degree.

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