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RumiDude
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 12:29 pm 
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The weather forecast is for snow and rain with cold temperatures.  I hope she is prepared for this.

Rumi

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"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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Ski
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 4:52 pm 
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She looks young and fit and sounds determined. I wish her the best of luck. Hope the weather doesn't get too unfriendly up there.

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DIYSteve
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 6:03 pm 
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Best o' luck to her. Forecast calling for up to 3 feet of snow in next 4 days, followed by rain/snow mix or cold rain for several days. No clearing trend in sight.
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Malachai Constant
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 6:23 pm 
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Currently on the Oregon Coast we are having 50 mph winds and horizontal rain. Snow level falling to 5000, in the Cascades. It will be worse in the North Cascades. I wish her luck and shelter.

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"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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zephyr
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 6:30 pm 
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Nancyann wrote:
She felt like she had enough gear in her 40lb pack to survive the expected bad weather,

I didn't see snowshoes on that list.  Did she have those too?  ~z
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MtnGoat
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 7:23 pm 
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IMO, from the forecast, the date and her location, it's smartest for her to bail at the next opportunity. What's coming is no sprinkling, it's the first of next winters base.

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Eric Hansen
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 7:52 pm 
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I think those are the thoughts of many of us scoping the weather, outlook. And I suspect many of us don't want to be posting less than positive thoughts, seemingly second guessing, someone we feel affection and admiration for. I'm just hoping she has a good escape route out of the high country if and when she decides it's time to bail. Nice to have choices.
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bk
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 7:56 pm 
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It sounds like Katharina is the same Katharina in this article, two months ago (Aug. 24th)…approx. halfway up the PCT.

Katharina Groene (trail name: "city girl"), born in Russian, now lives in Munich, Germany.

She's looking more chiseled and determined now than in August, but so is the weather.

Earlier on, halfway up the PCT, she had already dodged a couple of logistical, show-stopping bullets for this trip. (see “11:58 p.m.” …as referenced in the article link. Wow.) Is there a rule for how many close-calls one is allowed?

Per a version of Halfmile’s PCT mileage (2012 version), if Katharina left Stevens Pass (mile 2,476) this past Tue. morning (Oct. 23rd), and stayed at 15 miles per day, then, by now (starting with tonight):

Sat. night, 10/27: Mile 2,551, camp spot near where Suiattle River meets the PCT (about 7 miles from the Sulphur Mtn. trailhead).
Sun. night, 10/28: Mile 2,566, camp spot, now north of Lyman Lakes, just west of Bonanza Peak.
Mon. night, 10/29: Mile 2,581, camp spot at Stehekin turn-off option.

(Would she take a zero (day off) at Stehekin?)

Assuming she skips Stehekin, then:

Tue. night, 10/30: Mile 2,596 (basically Rainy Pass . . . one mile short of....)
Wed. night, 10/31: Mile 2,611, camp at the valley west of Snowy Lakes.
Thu. night, 11/1: Mile 2,626, Tatie Peak (four miles short of Harts Pass)
- - -
So nights where she'd be accessible, maybe, would be:
• tonight (and Sun. morning), 7 miles from the Sulphur Mtn. trailhead, along the Suiattle River.
• Mon. night (10/29) (& Tue. morning): turn-off to Stehekin.
• Tue. night (10/30) Rainy Pass

Yea, no snow shoes mentioned. No gaiters. (and no satellite communications) In cold weather, five days of batteries might really mean two days of batteries (since electronics prematurely die in cold weather, sometimes....like iPhones...unless kept near the torso for warmth . . . and even then.)
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DIYSteve
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 9:05 pm 
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bk wrote:
and stayed at 15 miles per day

If the weather forecast holds, 15 miles/day is unlikely after tomorrow
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Bernardo
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 9:09 pm 
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Roughly how many days or miles is it from Rainy Pass to the Canadian border?
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Nancyann
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 9:49 pm 
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Thank you bk, for sharing the informative article about Katharina. I didn’t disclose her last name, for a variety of reasons, but this is the same person as described in the article. While we were hiking out, she told me the same stories, plus her harrowing experience of crawling on the Knife Edge in Goat Rocks in a whiteout and fresh snow. She talked a lot about overcoming fear, very brave girl.
Unfortunately, she does not have snowshoes, and her Altra Trailrunners, like mine, only stay waterproof for so long, and then they become saturated. I believe that despite her drive and determination, if there is going to be two-three feet of snow up there, she is going to be in need of help. Maybe after the storm clears, if she hasn’t bailed out the Suiattle, which I told her to do if things got bad, a helicopter should be sent to locate her.
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Pyrites
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 10:13 pm 
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I know nothing about SAR. Without snow a reasonable hiker can’t lose that trail. Have agencies been engaged. It’s regularly hard for folks from far away to understand how fast snow can accumulate. Not a new problem. See Donner Party.

I’d hope confirmation of safety is made sooner rather than later.
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RumiDude
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Bernardo wrote:
Roughly how many days or miles is it from Rainy Pass to the Canadian border?

Rainy Pass is about 70 miles from Manning Park and thus about 62 miles from the US/Canada border. Once you reach Monument 78, you still have about 8 miles over a mountain to reach the road and Manning Park Lodge. If she can do 15 miles per day it will take her about five days to reach Manning Park from Rainy Pass.

Remember in Section K is 127 miles and +32,815'/-31,013': Section L is 70 miles and +13,844'/-14,14,787'. There's a lot of elevation gain and loss those last two sections and a lot of the time above 5000' elevation. If there is significant snow accumulation, micro spikes will not be of much use, she will be post holing.

Rumi

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"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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Nancyann
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 10:28 pm 
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Pyrites, I clearly explained to her how fast the snow will pile up in a storm, using a personal example from one of my storm-related Glacier Peak Wilderness PCT experiences where we couldn’t move for three days. I also told her that route-finding would be very difficult once the trail is covered in snow. She did not have a map and compass, just that phone app that all thru hikers use. I put in a call to Jerry Dinsmore to find out what time she started back on the trail, but haven’t heard back from him yet. I’ll drive up to his place if he doesn’t call me back tomorrow.
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monorail
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PostSat Oct 27, 2018 10:40 pm 
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If she's in the vicinity of the Suiattle River now (which seems like a reasonable guess), I think she'll be OK. Here's what I see happening:
--Tomorrow she'd encounter snow at Suiattle Pass, but then it's a long, gradual descent to the Stehekin Valley
--I'm thinking she'd detour into Stehekin, to the post office. I don't think the shuttle bus is still running, so that could take some time.
--Then it's a long, gradual ascent to Rainy Pass
--so all together it will be a few days before she gets back into the high elevations, during which time quite a lot of snow will have fallen. Going north from Rainy Pass into the snowy landscape, I think she'll be able to quickly assess the difficulty of navigation and travel, and whether it's feasible to go on. If not, she can easily backtrack to Rainy Pass or Stehekin.
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