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gb
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PostSun Nov 04, 2018 9:34 am 
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The Western Olympics and West slopes of the Cascades from Snoqualmie Pass north to the border have had very heavy rains the past 72-96 hours. 72 hour rainfall totals in those areas are mostly in the 5-6" range with Elbow Lake near Scheiber's Meadow getting over 8". The same station has shown 10" of rain since the morning of October 31st.

NWS hydrology discussion shows a number of rivers at or a bit above flood stage.

Although these rains are not quite at record levels, it seems possible some damage has been done.
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kevperro
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PostSun Nov 04, 2018 11:49 am 
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We hiked up Lk. Serene Friday night in the dark/rain and a big-ole tree let loose down the slope. 

Hardly any wind so I just assume the soil saturation and it was time.    My wife and I ran the other direction because it sounded like a freight train coming down the slope.    It went right on down the slope over the trail, and after we checked our pants, we continued past just smelling freshly downed tree with no sign of it on the trail.
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Pyrites
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PostSun Nov 04, 2018 12:43 pm 
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The art of quick decision and running away is under appreciated.
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kevperro
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PostSun Nov 04, 2018 1:31 pm 
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Pyrites wrote:
The art of quick decision and running away is under appreciated.

I've been training for that maneuver ever since the big kids used to whoop on me in 3rd grade.  LOL...
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treeswarper
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PostSun Nov 04, 2018 2:12 pm 
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Ski wrote:
It's not just roots that get over-saturated and cause trees to go down.
Can't remember where I read it, but it's estimated that all that moss in one of those gigantic Big-Leaf Maples up on the Peninsula has the capacity to hold tons of water, and after big rain events big limbs can come crashing down without notice.

One of them, just shy of 5 miles on my favorite trail, punched a hole in the ground about two feet deep on impact.  eek.gif

Trees are always toppling over on their own.  In the paved part of the roads around and by the Cispus are divots left from big conifers going over.  One morning in the dark, one was blocking the road.  The crew cut it out only to find its root mate across the road another morning.  I think roads are magnetic to trees--along with new vehicles, buildings, fences, etc.  Trees like to smash 'em.

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kevperro
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PostSun Nov 04, 2018 2:30 pm 
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Yea... the damn things just like to fall.   

It seemed like about a 30-second cascade down the slope.   It was dark so you know how everything SOUNDS bigger in the dark but it was some serious debris coming down the slope.   

Of course, our friends made a big deal of us being there in the dark.   Like trees don't fall during the day.   rolleyes.gif

If I'd been moving just a smooch faster it would have been our last hike.
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treeswarper
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PostSun Nov 04, 2018 3:37 pm 
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Trees toppling nearby at night are extremely scary.  Very.

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JonnyQuest
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PostMon Nov 05, 2018 8:34 am 
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Ski wrote:
Nothing out of the ordinary. Typical for November - just a week or so early.

USGS 12040500 110418 1030 PST 33100 CFS
USGS 12040500 110418 1030 PST 33100 CFS

Spent Fri & Sat night camped in the gravel pit a short ways before the FS 21 bridge over Matheny.  It was damp.
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gb
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PostMon Nov 05, 2018 9:10 am 
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JonnyQuest wrote:
Ski wrote:
Nothing out of the ordinary. Typical for November - just a week or so early.

USGS 12040500 110418 1030 PST 33100 CFS
USGS 12040500 110418 1030 PST 33100 CFS

Spent Fri & Sat night camped in the gravel pit a short ways before the FS 21 bridge over Matheny.  It was damp.

Actually, it was pretty extraordinary. Many locations probably got about 40 - 50% of the normal November rains in 5 days. It just wasn't record setting. The saturation of the ground and continued heavy rains are likely to have done some damage. We just don't know where.

The rains are still continuing in the mountains with Baker Lake and Marblemount sites collecting now 10-11" of rain since October 31st and Marblemount recording well over 3" yesterday. Snoqualmie Pass also continues to get very heavy rains.
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mezmochill
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PostMon Nov 05, 2018 12:45 pm 
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It's pretty standard in th PNW to have heavy rain events in October November. 25-50% in a few days isnt that uncommon either I wouldn't believe.

Other areas of the country not so much except maybe the desert.

Rising freezing levels could become the big PNW issue.

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PostMon Nov 05, 2018 2:24 pm 
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Ski wrote:


like I said... nothing out of the ordinary...


A 5" rain event in the Cascades will likely have a different effect than a similar event in the Olympics.  The Cascades don't see as nearly as many such events, thus the damage is likely to be more severe.
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gb
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PostMon Nov 05, 2018 6:28 pm 
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Ski wrote:
(yawn)

like I said... nothing out of the ordinary...


Like I said extraordinary. (yawn)

The Queets is one river and the scale on the graph makes it meaningless.
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gb
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PostMon Nov 05, 2018 6:50 pm 
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mezmochill wrote:
It's pretty standard in th PNW to have heavy rain events in October November. 25-50% in a few days isnt that uncommon either I wouldn't believe.

Other areas of the country not so much except maybe the desert.

Rising freezing levels could become the big PNW issue.

This thread isn't about global warming despite your's and Ski's obvious concerns, but about extraordinary heavy rains and a good chance of some trail and some road damage. As to rising freezing levels, that ship sailed 20 years ago. Worthwhile backcountry skiing days into and through the 90's were way more frequent than since 2000. There are many low elevation ski run bases in the 2500-2700' range that I used to ski at least every year or two that I've not been able to ski for about a decade. I won't be able to ski them again this year.
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thunderhead
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PostMon Nov 05, 2018 8:44 pm 
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Ya, that was a very ordinary rain event with very minor flooding and very isolated power outages.  Get about what, 5 of these every year?
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treeswarper
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PostTue Nov 06, 2018 6:03 am 
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Rifle elk season=bad weather, usually.  November is the nahsty month.  Why, just read Cliff Mass! smile.gif

The good thing about last weekend's rain was that there was no snow accumulation.  Otherwise, the November Flood occurs.  Remember 2006?  2007?   1988?  About the latter, I can't remember any flooding, but we had a good snow storm then and my drive back from E. Warshington took a goodly amount of time.  Lots of 4x4s in the ditch going west out of Vantage, and stranded hunters being helicoptered out of camps--the helipad was in the middle of hwy 12 by the old Tieton Ranger Station. 

November is November.  Dark and wet, although I was sunning in my yard on Saturday.  It was in the upper 50s here.

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