Forum Index > Trail Talk > Possible road and TH damage due to heavy rains last few days
Previous :: Next Topic  
Author Message
iron
getting old



Joined: 10 Aug 2008
Posts: 6149 | TRs
Location: kenmore
iron
  Top

getting old
PostTue Nov 27, 2018 6:04 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
i thought rainier had 18" in 24 hours in december 2007 when seattle got like 4" that day.

--------------
man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what?

--- moe sizlack
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 4948 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostTue Nov 27, 2018 6:25 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
iron wrote:
i thought rainier had 18" in 24 hours in december 2007 when seattle got like 4" that day.

Yes, the year slips me, but I thought it was 2007. But I saw an article about the time of the flood that the period was 36 hours. It washed out all or nearly all the bridges in Mt. Rainier National Park. Two years ago I walked the Wonderland from Berkeley Park to Mystic Lake. As you drop down to cross the Winthrop Glacier Creek, the eastern gorge looks fairly normal but at the crossing of the western stream off the Winthrop you go through a deeply eroded gorge something like 25 or 30' deep that looks like it is from a relatively recent flood of essentially unimaginable magnitude. I would think that is from the 2007 flood as there hasn't been anything like that since. There have been recent flash floods in the South Cascades in the American River and also in the Goat Rocks. The trailhead at Fife's ridge is lost in a 10-15' deep cut with cut logs above, and there are other recent gorges (from the same flood) on Fife's Ridge. Then there is the recent washout of 1502 at Rattlesnake Creek. These are likely all of the same origin. Try to figure out how Rattlesnake Creek raged heavily enough to take out the approaches to the long bridge there. That one happened in 2015 and the bridge was just repaired in October. On occasion you see these amazing things that leave you shaking your head.

Google is your friend, the catastrophic Mt. Rainier flood was November 6th, 2006. Worth a read with lots of pictures.

https://www.nps.gov/mora/learn/news/upload/flooddamagev3.pdf
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 4948 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostTue Nov 27, 2018 6:53 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
The November 2006 floods and record rainfall amounts from the National Weather Service:

Quote:
November 2006 was the wettest November on record, mostly from a single event. A strong, warm and wet Pacific weather system brought copious amounts of rainfall to Washington from November 2 to 7, with subsequent major flooding that extended through November 11. This storm, fueled in part from sub-tropical moisture associated with former western Pacific Typhoon Cimaron, produced rain amounts of between 10 to 38 inches in the Cascades and Olympics and 4 to 10 inches in western Washington lowlands during this period. The mountains had little if any snow pack, so the floods were driven solely by the heavy rainfall amounts.

Stampede Pass in the central Washington Cascades received an all-time daily record rain total of 8.22 inches on Nov 6, breaking the old record of 7.29 inches set on Nov 19, 1962. In addition, several other locations broke daily rainfall records. They included SeaTac Airport with 3.29 inches (old record 0.99 inches in 1990), Olympia with 4.31 inches (old record 1.74 inches in 1980) and Quillayute Airport near Forks with 2.38 inches (old record 1.92 inches in 1999). Additionally, June Lake and Swift Creek near Mt St Helens had 24-hour precipitation totals of 15.20 inches and 14.60 inches respectively on Nov 7th. During the overall event, June Lake received 38.20 inches, Swift Creek 36.40 inches and Sheep Canyon 28.00 inches.

The heavy rainfall amounts led to widespread flooding involving nearly all western Washington rivers and four rivers east of the Cascades. NWS Seattle (41), NWS Portland (6), NWS Spokane (1) and NWS Pendleton (4) issued flood warnings for 52 flood warning points throughout the state during the event. In all, 15 western Washington rivers reached all-time record flood crest levels. In addition for smaller streams, urban and small stream flood advisories and areal flood warnings were issued by both NWS Seattle and Portland forecast offices. All streams naturally returned to within their banks by November 11. There was more than $70 million in damages.

The Skagit River at Concrete reached 39.79 ft. or 145,000 cfs, which was only the sevneth highest level in the post-dam era, but nearly 15 ft. above flood stage. That compares with the Grand Daddy Flood in the early 1800s before European settlers, when a flood of around 69.3 ft., 510,000 cfs occurred somewhere around the year 1815, according to the Native Americans living in the area. That is more than 11 times the flood flow of 45,000 cfs, and over 44 feet above flood stage.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Brushwork
Know your complex



Joined: 18 Aug 2018
Posts: 112 | TRs
Location: Washington
Brushwork
  Top

Know your complex
PostTue Nov 27, 2018 8:36 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb wrote:
The Skagit River at Concrete reached 39.79 ft. or 145,000 cfs, which was only the sevneth highest level in the post-dam era, but nearly 15 ft. above flood stage. That compares with the Grand Daddy Flood in the early 1800s before European settlers, when a flood of around 69.3 ft., 510,000 cfs occurred somewhere around the year 1815, according to the Native Americans living in the area. That is more than 11 times the flood flow of 45,000 cfs, and over 44 feet above flood stage.

"44 feet above flood stage".    That's inconceivable.   I'm not disputing it.   It's just hard to picture......

--------------
When I grow up I wanna play.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
thunderhead
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 699 | TRs

thunderhead
  Top

Member
PostThu Nov 29, 2018 10:02 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Quote:
As far as I know the greatest 36 hour rainfall was about 18" at Mt. Rainier, which historically would probably be on the order of a 500 year event

Not even close to a 500 year event.  Windward elevated terrain next to major oceanic storms?  Your off by an order of magnitude, thats a one in 50 year event for a given spot like that, maybe even less.  18 inches in 36 hours is not all that difficult for a mountain that sticks up that far into this kind of moisture advection.  Any strong stalled front/atmospheric river should be in that ballpark.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
iron
getting old



Joined: 10 Aug 2008
Posts: 6149 | TRs
Location: kenmore
iron
  Top

getting old
PostThu Nov 29, 2018 10:09 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
thunderhead wrote:
Quote:
As far as I know the greatest 36 hour rainfall was about 18" at Mt. Rainier, which historically would probably be on the order of a 500 year event

Not even close to a 500 year event.  Windward elevated terrain next to major oceanic storms?  Your off by an order of magnitude, thats a one in 50 year event for a given spot like that, maybe even less.  18 inches in 36 hours is not all that difficult for a mountain that sticks up that far into this kind of moisture advection.  Any strong stalled front/atmospheric river should be in that ballpark.

The flood was a natural event unlike any other that has been recorded in Mount Rainier National
Park’s 108 year history. Mount Rainier has experienced many other floods and mudflows that
have changed the natural landscape and threatened the security of structures. None of these events
left the park without utilities and roads, a safe entry corridor or removed campgrounds throughout
the four corners of Mount Rainier as the November 2006 flood did. Damage to the park resulted
in an historic six-month closure of the park.


https://www.nps.gov/mora/learn/management/upload/2006%20flood%2012_17_09.pdf

--------------
man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what?

--- moe sizlack
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
coldrain108
Thundering Herd



Joined: 05 Aug 2010
Posts: 1365 | TRs
Location: somewhere over the rainbow
coldrain108
  Top

Thundering Herd
PostThu Nov 29, 2018 2:05 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Like this?

Emergency Closure on Olympic Hot Springs Road

"The recent storm resulted in 7-8 inches of rain and increased flows which peaked at roughly 12,000 cfs. "

--------------
"The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch and do nothing"  - Albert Einstein
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
RumiDude
Marmota olympus



Joined: 26 Jul 2009
Posts: 2591 | TRs
Location: Port Angeles
RumiDude
  Top

Marmota olympus
PostThu Nov 29, 2018 3:42 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
coldrain108 wrote:
Like this?

ONP is going to fiddle fart around until the Olympic Hot Springs Road is like the Dosewallips, and then it will never get repaired.

Rumi

--------------
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Ski
><((((°>



Joined: 27 May 2005
Posts: 9564 | TRs
Location: tacoma
Ski
  Top

><((((°>
PostThu Nov 29, 2018 4:38 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I posted this yesterday in the "road conditions" thread in Trail Talk forum:

Flood damage to river bank near Madison Falls parking area. 112818 NPS Photo
Flood damage to river bank near Madison Falls parking area. 112818 NPS Photo

Note the rip-rap (bank armoring) in the background.

How many approach roads in Olympic National Park are not right down next to the river in the flood plain?
Not uncommon for these roads to wash out. The Lower Queets Road saw washouts over and over and over during the last several decades.
Formerly the practice was to go in with a piece of heavy equipment, cut a bypass around the washout, and re-open the road.

On the Graves Creek Road they went in with more bank armoring and man-made log structures - that was .... 15-20 years ago? (?)

No excuse for not effecting remedy and re-opening these roads. Dumb, Dumb, and Dumber.

--------------
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. 
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Ski
><((((°>



Joined: 27 May 2005
Posts: 9564 | TRs
Location: tacoma
Ski
  Top

><((((°>
PostThu Nov 29, 2018 4:43 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
In the case of the big water event in 2006 at MRNP, then Superintendent Dave Uberuaga sent an operator with a piece of tracked equipment down to Kautz Creek and had him drive it down into the ditch to remove a mess of downed wood that was blocking the culvert to prevent the water from flowing over the asphalt-surfaced roadway and causing a situation which would have effectively prevented entry into the Park past that point.

He got some heat for it, but in the end the foofaraw blew over and tourists and Park staff were able to continue their activities.

ONP could easily go in and fix the roads, but they choose not to for reasons which defy all logical explanation.

--------------
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. 
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 4948 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostFri Nov 30, 2018 6:33 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
thunderhead wrote:
Quote:
As far as I know the greatest 36 hour rainfall was about 18" at Mt. Rainier, which historically would probably be on the order of a 500 year event

Not even close to a 500 year event.  Windward elevated terrain next to major oceanic storms?  Your off by an order of magnitude, thats a one in 50 year event for a given spot like that, maybe even less.  18 inches in 36 hours is not all that difficult for a mountain that sticks up that far into this kind of moisture advection.  Any strong stalled front/atmospheric river should be in that ballpark.

So you say. Give me an example of similar recorded rainfall in Washington weather records including mountain sites. I know that since I've been watching telemetry nothing like this (even approaching this) has been recorded.

The NPS in the link provided said that there had been nothing like it since records were kept (or the Park opened) in 1892.

A good way to observe unusual events is just to use your eyes. I noted the example of Winthrop Creek. Another is the cut at the base of the West face of Mt. Maude which used to be perhaps 4' deep and all of a sudden became 20' deep, exposing two unmixed layers of Glacier peak tephra from 11,200 ya. Hence the greatest flood on that particular slope in since the tephra was erupted. Surface rocks on that slope are Skagit Gneiss talus. The lack of such mixed talus with the tephra tells the story. I can't give a year for that event but it was likely 2003 or 2006. It was certainly in that time period.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 4948 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostFri Nov 30, 2018 6:37 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Brushwork wrote:
gb wrote:
The Skagit River at Concrete reached 39.79 ft. or 145,000 cfs, which was only the sevneth highest level in the post-dam era, but nearly 15 ft. above flood stage. That compares with the Grand Daddy Flood in the early 1800s before European settlers, when a flood of around 69.3 ft., 510,000 cfs occurred somewhere around the year 1815, according to the Native Americans living in the area. That is more than 11 times the flood flow of 45,000 cfs, and over 44 feet above flood stage.

"44 feet above flood stage".    That's inconceivable.   I'm not disputing it.   It's just hard to picture......

Don't know about that one other than Native Americans were swept off a bar in the upper Skagit that is way above the water. I believe that is the strongest evidence for the 1810-1820 event according to legend. There is an old 1961 report in pdf form that I read a couple of days ago that describes all of the major floods on the Skagit (to 1961). There are some interesting stories like being able to canoe from Sedro Wooley to LaConner.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
monorail
Member
Member


Joined: 06 May 2012
Posts: 230 | TRs

monorail
  Top

Member
PostFri Nov 30, 2018 2:04 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb wrote:
There is an old 1961 report in pdf form that I read a couple of days ago that describes all of the major floods on the Skagit (to 1961).

That sounds interesting; do you happen to have a link?

I wonder if the 1810-1820 flood involved some kind of huge glacial outburst.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
MyFootHurts
Huge Member



Joined: 22 Nov 2011
Posts: 739 | TRs
Location: Kekistan
MyFootHurts
  Top

Huge Member
PostFri Nov 30, 2018 9:26 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Ski wrote:
ONP could easily go in and fix the roads, but they choose not to for reasons which defy all logical explanation.

"Public land managers" tend to be environmentalists.
Environmentalists view other humans as pollution and garbage that need to be kept away from the wilderness.

"Oh sorry the road washed out and there's no money to fix it" is actually part of the plan.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 4948 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostSat Dec 01, 2018 1:54 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
MyFootHurts wrote:
Ski wrote:
ONP could easily go in and fix the roads, but they choose not to for reasons which defy all logical explanation.

"Public land managers" tend to be environmentalists.
Environmentalists view other humans as pollution and garbage that need to be kept away from the wilderness.

"Oh sorry the road washed out and there's no money to fix it" is actually part of the plan.

This is a pretty nonsensical post based on nothing. Please give supporting evidence.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
  Display:     All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Forum Index > Trail Talk > Possible road and TH damage due to heavy rains last few days
  Happy Birthday Flash Gordon, raz2sea!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
   Use Disclaimer Powered by phpBB Privacy Policy