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gb
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PostFri Nov 23, 2018 2:18 pm 
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https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/21/secretary-zinke-issues-misleading-information-about-wildfire-risk/

About Bill Gabbert: https://wildfiretoday.com/author/
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treeswarper
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PostFri Nov 23, 2018 7:09 pm 
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Read the comments.  There's a bit more to it.  There are too many people trying to make a complicated problem "easy".  They want one size fits all.  It doesn't work that way.  You've also got Jerry Brown who went to the other extreme, blaming it on climate change.

I've worked in an area where our boss who was very fire savvy gave us instructions that if we smelled a whiff of smoke to get the heck out of the area.  It was jack strawed blowdown from beetle kill which had not burned but had lain there long enough for trees to grow up through it.  It was about 3 feet deep.  That stuff will burn.  Note some of the commenters pointing this out.

I think part of that area became the Tripod Fire.

Anyway, bug kill pine doesn't have much to do with what was going on in California.

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Ski
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PostFri Nov 23, 2018 8:19 pm 
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So many experts.... so little time.

Bugs are a "natural part of the ecosystem".
Fire is a "natural part of the ecosystem".

So are sunspots, earthquakes, tornados, tectonic plate movement, and climate change.

Unfortunately we've manipulated the landscape to the point where there really isn't a hell of a lot of "natural" left today.
Moreover, our understanding of what is "natural" on this continent is based on our knowledge of what's happened over the course of the last three or four centuries - not a big window of time in the larger picture.
(Feel free to pull out your argument about a few core samples taken out of a few lakes in British Columbia.)

It's pretty difficult to put forth credible arguments against the statements from men who've been on fire lines their entire careers, but there will always be those who will conjure up all kinds of seemingly rational arguments against any sort of timber harvest for any reason.

The other point which should be considered here is that the author's premise is that a statement made by Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is incorrect.
Ryan Zinke's qualifications in regard to forest management are less than zero, if that were numerically possible.
Furthermore, he's going to be investigated for a number of illegal deals he's had his greasy little fingers in. Why would any sane, rational person give a good goddam what Ryan Zinke has to say? Hopefully the sonofabitch will be in prison in short order, and we won't have to listen to his blather any more.

Move on.

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PostFri Nov 23, 2018 10:35 pm 
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forgot to mention:

Zinke's position as Secretary of the Interior gives him neither the statutory or regulatory authority to affect any policies of either the United States Forest Service or the Bureau of Lands Management. "Forest management" is not within the scope of his assigned task as Interior Secretary.
He is no more qualified (or in any official capacity authorized) to speak to forest management than a stray dog.

Why would anyone give him the time of day about this issue? Because he has a big mouth and the ear of the Raker in Chief?

Good Lord.... move on.

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I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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jinx'sboy
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 2:24 am 
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My comments about the quoted article would be lengthy.....I may post some later.  It is full of generalizations and inaccuracies.

However, Ski is not quite correct.  As Sec. of Interior, Zinke does have direct control over the Bureau of Land Management, as well as the USFWS and the Bureau of Indian Affairs.  And the NPS.  All of those agencies have some Forestry management mission, as well as substantial fire fighting responsibilities on a variety of federal public lands.  He is well within his role to speak on forestry.

Additionally, nearly every administration has often used the Sec. of Interior to announce or promote major conservation or forestry related agendas.  It’s just the way it happens.  Maybe partly because the budgets for ALL the land management agencies - USFS and all the DOI - are considered together, and acted upon in one ‘omnibus’ bill by Congress.
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treeswarper
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 6:28 am 
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Yes, Zinke is the head of the BLM and other agencies.  And yes, he doesn't have to know a thing about forestry.  Nor does the head of the USDA, to which the Forest Service belongs.

There have been talks for a long time about combining the FS and BLM.  Only talk.

There is a little study that is being made public about our state.  It names the 10 towns most likely to burn up.  Leavenworth is number 1.  Wenatchee is on the list.  I live in number 10.  The only mention of the method used to get to those results was wind topography and timber.  I'm thinking because of the last criteria, the study is bogus.

No Western Warshington town made the list.

Edit by me:  Besides the article that was scanned onto Facebook, I found this, which is more vague but gives me hopes that perhaps more info will make it online.

http://www.ifiberone.com/columbia_basin/study-shows-several-north-central-washington-communities-most-threatened-by/article_fe498df2-ef44-11e8-ac91-8bfaa11e5334.html

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gb
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 7:41 am 
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jinx'sboy wrote:
My comments about the quoted article would be lengthy.....I may post some later.  It is full of generalizations and inaccuracies.

And would lack any kind of significant knowledge or experience.
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Ski
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 11:05 am 
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jinx's boy wrote:
........

Well, I stand corrected there. Thank you for that.
One of the consequences of posting late at night, I suppose.

That notwithstanding, it won't change the fact that come January 21st, Zinke will be the target of full-on Congressional investigations (along with a few others) and his days there will be numbered.
Not much point in belaboring his idiotic statements.

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I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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jinx'sboy
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 12:05 pm 
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Ski wrote:
....and his days there will be numbered.
Not much point in belaboring his idiotic statements.

No argument here.  I certainly wasn’t sticking up for him.
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treeswarper
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 12:15 pm 
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Nor was I.

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treeswarper
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 12:16 pm 
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gb wrote:
And would lack any kind of significant knowledge or experience.

Any you know this how?

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Ski
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PostSat Nov 24, 2018 12:27 pm 
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^ From his superior research skills. wink.gif

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gb
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PostSun Nov 25, 2018 8:22 am 
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the full quote:
gb wrote:
jinx'sboy wrote:
My comments about the quoted article would be lengthy.....I may post some later.  It is full of generalizations and inaccuracies.

And would lack any kind of significant knowledge or experience.

"It is full of generalizations and inaccuracies." What do you think the chances are that jinx's boy is more knowledgeable and better studied on the subject than Gabbert and the research paper he referenced in the article?

Answer "0"
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PostSun Nov 25, 2018 8:57 am 
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Ski wrote:
our understanding of what is "natural" on this continent is based on our knowledge of what's happened over the course of the last three or four centuries - not a big window of time in the larger picture.(Feel free to pull out your argument about a few core samples taken out of a few lakes in British Columbia.)

huh.gif

There is a rich and fascinating literature on the natural history of the West.  If you are not the type of person to go looking for the research papers, you can learn a lot just by visiting the natural history museum at UBC in Vancouver.  Nearby excavations show that coastal sage scrub, an ecosytem now found only south of Big Sur, ranged north into BC during the Holocene Thermal Maximum, which occurred roughly 5,000 years ago.  After winters became too cold for the coastal sage scrub, that was replaced by Big Basin Sage and Ponderosa Pine, the latter of which hangs on in a few places in Western Washington such as Fort Lewis.  The evolution of the forests from Ponderosa and Garry Oak savannah to closed-canopy mesic forest is well documented across Western Washington as well.

Art Kruckeberg's book, The Natural History of Puget Sound, is a good place to start if you want to learn about our immediate area.

Our understanding of natural history extends well back beyond the last ice age.  Once you have to deconvolute multiple ice ages, things do get complicated.

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treeswarper
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PostSun Nov 25, 2018 9:09 am 
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gb wrote:
the full quote:
gb wrote:
jinx'sboy wrote:
My comments about the quoted article would be lengthy.....I may post some later.  It is full of generalizations and inaccuracies.

And would lack any kind of significant knowledge or experience.

"It is full of generalizations and inaccuracies." What do you think the chances are that jinx's boy is more knowledgeable and better studied on the subject than Gabbert and the research paper he referenced in the article?

Answer "0"

So, what do you know about JB?   You quoted only part of his answer, which shows your bias. You are acting very snooty and defensive.  Perhaps you should stick to weather forecasts. 

The sun is out here and time for a walk.  Goodbye.

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