Forum Index > Trail Talk > "Baby It's Cold Outside"
Previous :: Next Topic  
Author Message
Riverside Laker
Member
Member


Joined: 12 Jan 2004
Posts: 2456 | TRs

Riverside Laker
  Top

Member
PostSun Feb 10, 2019 1:28 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
When I was a kid, we had to walk 10.... feet... to change channels on our TV set, snow on the screen both ways, and it was 65 degrees and we thought that was nothing. Then we had to walk back to the antenna to fix the signal, and there was more snow when you were near the antenna. Then my brother, who had to sit on the floor, would get mad because the snow got worse, and he'd shake so bad his hot chocolate burned his thigh. I'm just kidding about the hot chocolate. We didn't get that, we had to drink water.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Kim Brown
Member
Member


Joined: 13 Jul 2009
Posts: 5417 | TRs

Kim Brown
  Top

Member
PostSun Feb 10, 2019 2:53 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
At least your brother had a floor to sit on. We lived in a mud puddle. It wasn't too bad until winter. We had to sleep with Pulaski's because after a freeze, we'd have to chop each other out of the ice to get to school.

--------------
" I'm really happy about this! … I have very strong good and horrible memories up there."  – oldgranola, NWH’s outdoors advocate.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Kascadia
Member
Member


Joined: 03 Feb 2014
Posts: 371 | TRs

Kascadia
  Top

Member
PostSun Feb 10, 2019 3:15 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
But we were happier then. clown.gif

Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5199 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostMon Feb 11, 2019 12:35 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Early on, the weather models looked like Seattle would remain very cold but significant snow was no certainty because, as in the track of the first snowstorm, most of the moisture would remain offshore as the systems dropped south to California. But with successive models colder periods became interspersed more and more with warmer onshore flow. That trend continues. It increasingly looks that Seattle will transition to more nearly normal winter weather. A few shorter cool to cold periods still show up out to the 20th to 24th but each new set of models heads less and less to this. Usually when a trend in weather models heads in some particular direction, at least for awhile, change continues and acelerates in that direction. It wouldn't be surprising that it becomes warm and wet around or shortly after the 20th as opposed to the earlier view (through models) of cold and mostly dry.

EDITED: This mornings GFS has gone back to a cooler to colder solution after Friday and back to current near surface freezing levels after the 20th with a cold air mass near us in SW BC. But, rather warm air is not far west on several days. So, time will tell. In any case we will see a period with somewhat higher snow levels until Saturday.

Last night's NWS discussion still voiced uncertainty and was somewhat confident that north of Everett or a bit father north that all would be snow. Now it looks like rain (probably freezing rain for awhile) will fall even in the far north. The trend.

It was kind of neat while it lasted, I liked actually seeing winter weather. Perhaps, to this extent for the last time in my lifetime. I hiked along the Sauk, watched sunset at Discovery Park, and walked Ollalie State Park. I thought about cross-country skiing on a golf course as I had done a number of times years ago.

9am NWS discussion:

Quote:
.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will move through Western Washington this

afternoon and tonight. Many portions of the lowlands will see the

snow turn to rain. The precipitation will taper off to scattered

showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Another weather system will arrive

later in the week with heavy mountain snow likely.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Snow will increase through

the afternoon as a warm front arrives. With offshore pressure

gradients the precip will remain snow for awhile--but as the

southerlies kick in this evening the snow will will turn to

rain for many lowland areas. Naturally the coast and southwest

will turn to rain first, but the change will come pretty quick

around Puget Sound and near the water this evening too. The

UW wrfgfs shows Port Angeles getting skunked tonight--probably due

to a typical precip shadowing effect so the winter storm warning for

the Admiralty Inlet area and the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca zone

will be downgraded to a winter weather advisory. For the most part

the forecast is in good shape as southerlies scouring the cool air

is fairly certain. The Seattle metro area will see the coolest temps

of the night early before the change to rain while away from the

water and for locations that have a little elevation we might see

the snow hang on longer. Whatcom county usually takes a long time to

scour out.





.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...It looks like we will be

moving into a pattern where the snow level is low and the mountains

do well for snowfall--but the lowlands could be done with the snow.

Maybe there will be some shallow Fraser outflow at times, but mostly

the cold air over B.C. will moderate to the point that takes the

lowlands out of play for wintry weather--and the over-water

trajectory of frontal systems will be much more typical.

Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5199 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostSun Feb 17, 2019 9:06 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
With cooler but not as cold air beginning to come in once again the NWS said this:

Quote:
Fraser river outflow winds over the North Interior are a little

behind schedule Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient -10 mb

instead of the predicted -15 mb. The gradients is becoming more

negative with time so have just slowed down the onset of the

outflow winds today. With the gradient peaking around

-15 mb and most of the cold air bottled up over British Columbia

will keep the winds below advisory levels. It will be another cool

day with highs int he upper 30s and lower 40s. Through the 16th

Seattle is 8 degrees below normal for the month. This is the 4th

coldest first 16 days of February in the 75 years of records at

Sea-Tac and the coldest in the last 30 years. The 3 years that

were colder 1989, 1949 and 1956.




Northerly flow aloft continuing tonight with the slow drying of

the air mass continuing. With the decreasing cloud cover it is

going to be another chilly morning on Monday, most places will be

in the 20s. 
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5199 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostWed Feb 27, 2019 7:50 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Mountain temperatures are about as cold right now as they have been through the entire period. The big winner was the top of Crystal from NWAC telemetry at 9PM last night: 1F with a wind gust to 95mph. I was curious because I tried to ski at Paradise yesterday and on arrival it was in the low teens, windy, and with an overcast coming over the crest from the east. We stayed about one minute and then retreated to the Comet Falls trail where it was OK in the low 20's with occasional bits of wind, but sunny, too. Comet Falls in barely running with a huge ice cone at the base.

Ski quality was just fair due to variable wind effects and pocked snow from tree bombs. From Paradise nearly all slopes above treeline showed a lot of wind damage with the minor exception of some west facing areas.

This is not unique to Paradise, as all mountain stations show similar windy and cold conditions except Stevens and Baker; but I suspect those are just telemetry location anomalies. Usually when there are strong east winds at the crest, Eastern Washington mountains are OK, but not this time with both Mission and Washington Pass also showing moderate to strong wind gusts.

NWAC warns of transport and formation of slabs over the top of cold weak layers by this East wind currently. Usually those slabs are not extensive but still can be locally thick. In Eastern Washington it seems to me that with the likely dramatic popping of one of these cold, hard slabs it might be possible to transmit sudden energy to the very old weak layer and perhaps trigger a significant avalanche.

There really is now no prospect of good backcountry skiing in the Cascades it would seem.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Schenk
Off Leash Man



Joined: 16 Apr 2012
Posts: 2272 | TRs
Location: Traveling, with the bear, to the other side of the Mountain
Schenk
  Top

Off Leash Man
PostWed Feb 27, 2019 3:09 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
A quick question concerning the 2 systems moving through E. WA today and tonight.
There is a Winter Weather Advisory in place for Spokane (and surrounds) which expires at 3:00 p.m. today. The forecast for today's snowfall is 1-2"
The system that is supposed to follow it, and snow overnight, calls for 3-5". So why isn't there an Advisory for that system?
Is it because there will be less wind?

Any insight is appreciated!

--------------
Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Chief Joseph
Member
Member


Joined: 10 Nov 2007
Posts: 4944 | TRs
Location: What Verlot Forgot.
Chief Joseph
  Top

Member
PostWed Feb 27, 2019 3:54 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Almost for sure it's because of the wind, I'm sure you have heard about the highway closures last week SE of Spokane? Drifting can be bad.

Here at Priest Lake, we are still waiting for the predicted snow, although the sky looks about ready to release the flakes.

--------------
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Schenk
Off Leash Man



Joined: 16 Apr 2012
Posts: 2272 | TRs
Location: Traveling, with the bear, to the other side of the Mountain
Schenk
  Top

Off Leash Man
PostWed Feb 27, 2019 4:17 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Well, they just issued a new Advisory for our area, from 10p.m. tonight until noon tomorrow.
I was just not patient enough...
Ironically the former Advisory expired a few minutes ago and the snow is falling harder now than any time during the Advisory! hahaha
It is tough to predict around here this time of the year (or any time).

--------------
Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
cdestroyer
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Sep 2015
Posts: 409 | TRs
Location: montana
cdestroyer
  Top

Member
PostWed Feb 27, 2019 4:50 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
here in deer lodge the snow is about 16 inches. my car is stuck in the drive, and I have no place to sweep more snow off my porch it is piled so high. the temp has been in the low teens daytime and single digits night....stray outdoors cats are swimming though the snow to get from one place to another.. and the deer are belly deep.....and it is still snowing!!!!
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5199 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostTue Mar 05, 2019 9:33 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
From NWS Seattle today's discussion:

Quote:
One more sunny day for Western Washington with a weak upper level
low well to the northwest and the next system in the Eastern
Pacific moving toward Northern California. Surface gradients
remaining offshore but temperatures aloft remain cold, 850 mb
temps -3 to -7C. Expect another day of below normal high
temperatures even with the sunshine. Highs in the 40s will be
common. Today will be the 32nd day in a row with a below normal
high in Seattle.
The last day with an above normal high
temperature was February 1st.

What an amazing period in my lifetime. Final Sandpoint Weather Office records show 6.7 degrees below normal for the entire month of February! That is huge. And it will continue to be mostly cooler than average for at least another week or so.

However, this has been just an average winter.......with November, December, and January being very warm. So, statistically, the winter has been a bit warmer than normal and a fair bit drier than normal.  wink.gif
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
rossb
Member
Member


Joined: 23 Sep 2002
Posts: 1248 | TRs

rossb
  Top

Member
PostTue Mar 05, 2019 11:56 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Yeah, it really has been extraordinary. I still have a little patch of snow in my backyard in Northgate (not exactly a high elevation place). There has been snow on the ground in various parts of Seattle for a full month now. That has to be rare (I think it is the first time it has happened in my lifetime). Yet if you go up to the passes, it looks a bit below normal (as you said).
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5199 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostTue Mar 05, 2019 6:40 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Yeah, Ross. I went to Hurricane Ridge March 1st and Sequim still had 8" or so most places, and Port Angeles was solid snow about 1/2 mile above the water. The entrance station and well below it there was 18". I believe North Bend would still have quite a bit and Darrington a few days ago still had 2-2-1/2'. I looked at a few WSDOT webcams earlier and I-90 and along I-82 looked like it is mostly 6-8" of snow. I think the Cascades are about normal, or nearly so at 4000-5000' but I expect water content is further behind because the last 4' is very low water content.

If the CPC is right, the April period and beyond is rather warm and dry. So the snowpack will not last that long unless something changes. I'd bet desert flowers will be a couple of weeks late but mountain flowers should be at least normal.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 8996 | TRs
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
  Top

Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostWed Mar 06, 2019 8:51 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
It is snowing this morning.  I have been bundling up and using my bike to do town stuff.  The local roads were down to only a couple of icy spots.  This snowfall will not last as I see temps up to 40 here soon! breakdance.gif

Why keep posting inaccurate long term forecasts?  April is farther away than the last WRONG guess.

--------------
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
rossb
Member
Member


Joined: 23 Sep 2002
Posts: 1248 | TRs

rossb
  Top

Member
PostThu Mar 07, 2019 9:43 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
It is snowing at Northgate. I was planning on heading up to the mountains and cross country skiing, but I may do some skiing at the local golf course (Jackson Park). But then again, I skied that a bunch last month -- time for something new. (Never thought I would write that)  lol.gif
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
  Display:     All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Forum Index > Trail Talk > "Baby It's Cold Outside"
  Happy Birthday trestin, Bushwa Thunderhooey, aussie1990!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
   Use Disclaimer Powered by phpBB Privacy Policy