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RichP
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 8:28 am 
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5 in Moscow this morning. Got in some of the best cross-country skiing of the year on Palouse Divide yesterday.

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gb
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 8:49 am 
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Here is the latest NWS Discussion early this morning. This could turn out to be a period nearly as significant as the 1968 modified Arctic airmass and snowfall events.

Quote:
Some of the models including the operational GFS, the

experimental FV3, and the University of Washington MM5 show

potentially crippling snowfall amounts for the

Seattle/Everett/Tacoma area westward to the Olympics. The ECMWF

shows a similar pattern, but shows slightly lower but still

significant snowfall amounts across much of the area. The NAM12

has been on the lower end of the forecast snowfall amounts.

Most areas will likely see warning level snowfall amounts during

the Friday night and Saturday period. Low level thicknesses and

temperatures aloft suggest that rain is unlikely to occur over the

interior north of Tacoma or Seattle on Friday as precipitation

starts. Overall, models have been showing good run-to-run

continuity and consistency for the past several runs. Ensemble

members show less snow in the Seattle area and more over the

Fraser Valley and along the coast, but likely show that pattern

due to their lower resolution. Given these arguments, we have

issued a winter storm watch for the period starting Friday north

to Friday evening south and continuing through Saturday. Remember

that a winter storm watch means that significant snowfall is

likely, but not certain. There are still subtle changes that could

occur that results in lower snowfall totals.



Snow isn`t the only issue. Models forecast Williams Lake to

Bellingham pressure gradients rising to 30-33 mb. While models are

likely overdone somewhat, the gradients indicate that winds in the

lower Fraser valley of Western Whatcom County and the San Juan

Islands could be stronger than the event we had on Sunday night

and Monday. The winter storm watch will include information that

includes the potential for the high wind along with possible heavy

snow (lighter than further south but still close to warning level)

along with blowing snow and low wind chills as temperatures fall

through the 20s and into the teens late Friday night through

Saturday evening. Northerly winds gusting to 35 mph or higher are

possible over the central Puget Sound lowlands on Saturday and may

reach advisory criteria in the Seattle and Bremerton areas.



MOS temperatures are likely contaminated by climatology which is

typically warming as we move into February. A blend of raw model

temperatures were used as a first guess this morning and results

in a colder temperature than the previous forecast.



Widespread impacts are expected with this system from snow-

covered roads, cold temperatures, and strong outflow winds and

blowing snow particularly through the north interior. Please

continue to monitor the forecast for the latest information.

Albrecht





.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Conditions will gradually settle down Saturday night through

Sunday as the low moves off to the south and pressure gradients

relax. Sunday will be quite cold with lows in the teens to lower

20s and highs staying below freezing for the most part.



One would never know that we are moving toward mid Feb now if you

look at the various weather models. All forecast models show

another potential for snow sometime between late Sunday night

(ECMWF) to Monday night (GFS) period. Most models show this system

to be weaker then the the the Fri-Sat system. Then the models

don`t give up on the cold and potentially snowy pattern with the

potential of another snowy system Tuesday or Wednesday and maybe

more late in the week. It is still early, and we are concentrating

on the short term forecast, so at this time, the forecast shows

chance pops and continued cold weather through the extended.

Albrecht

What is interesting here is the statement that the "temperatures are likely contaminated by climatology" which means that the models have some blending in their development to what has happened in the past and should be happening this time of year. In other words, the severity of this situation may be understated in the forecasts.

I have a really interesting book on order: "STRANGERS IN A NEW LAND: WHAT ARCHAEOLOGY REVEALS ABOUT THE FIRST AMERICANS" about the spread of the earliest Native Americans by Adovasio, but it likely won't get delivered for some time. And I need to take my computer in for repair, but with almost certain grounding due to weather, I don't want to give up that option for entertainment.
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thunderhead
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 9:24 am 
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MOS - statistically tweaked model output - have significant climatology input.

The raw model data, such as the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, etc, do not.
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treeswarper
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 9:49 am 
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To equal the 1968 cold snap, temps would have to drop considerably.  I remember that winter more for the extreme temperatures than the snow on the ground.  -51 in Mazama, -40 at the Winthrop fish hatchery and then the thermometer quit working, a mere -24 in Wenatchee.

I consider it normal to have sub zero weather for a few days on the east side of the state, but 1968 was memorable.  When temps dip like that, we are thankful for a thick layer of snow as it helps protect water pipes a bit.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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thunderhead
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 11:28 am 
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I don't see many extreme low temp records being threatened... but we might set or approach records for duration of somewhat cold.  It aint going away in any of the long range model forecasts for at least a week, maybe 2 weeks or more.
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SeanSullivan86
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 12:28 pm 
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Here's the days with Min Temperature <= 20 degrees at Seatac in the past 20 years. The past 2 days (Feb 5 and 6) tie for 12th in that time period with min temps of 20.

Code:

Date         Max   Min
01/04/2004    27    20
01/05/2004    26    20
11/28/2006    27    18
11/29/2006    33    18
01/12/2007    31    19
01/14/2007    35    20
12/15/2008    30    19
12/16/2008    31    20
12/19/2008    27    20
12/20/2008    26    14
12/09/2009    32    18
12/10/2009    36    16
11/23/2010    25    16
11/24/2010    29    14
02/25/2011    31    20
02/26/2011    34    19
12/07/2013    32    19
12/08/2013    36    20
01/06/2017    40    20
02/05/2019    34    20
02/06/2019    37    20

The last time there was a single digit temp at Seatac was 7 degrees on 2/4/1989.

December 29 and 30 , 1968 were indeed notably cold at Seatac, with min temps of 6 and 8 degrees and max temps of 17 and 18 degrees. There have not been any colder days since.

January 1950 appears to have been extremely cold, with several days in the single digits and a low of 0 degrees. Not sure if there was an issue with the record keeping, but it would be by far the longest and coldest period.
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treeswarper
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 3:39 pm 
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Those 1968 dates were the problem for us kids.  We did not miss any school because it hit during Christmas Vacation.  I know we were a bit disappointed for that reason.  Our schools didn't close very much anyway.  The Badger Mtn. kids would not make it on bad days, but the rest of us had to go.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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gb
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 6:50 pm 
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treeswarper wrote:
To equal the 1968 cold snap, temps would have to drop considerably.  I remember that winter more for the extreme temperatures than the snow on the ground.  -51 in Mazama, -40 at the Winthrop fish hatchery and then the thermometer quit working, a mere -24 in Wenatchee.

I consider it normal to have sub zero weather for a few days on the east side of the state, but 1968 was memorable.  When temps dip like that, we are thankful for a thick layer of snow as it helps protect water pipes a bit.

That -51F is the Washington Record low temperature. And it is extremely unlikely to be broken ever in the lifetimes of ours or even in Grandchildren's lifetimes. The current source airmass in BC/Alberta is not even close to being that cold. A few days ago it was significantly colder with a good number of -30's and -40's in Central BC and Alberta, but that has moderated, or drifted away more accurately, and -20F is about the coldest you can find west of Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes. By comparison even with the coldest BC/Alberta days in this very extensive cold air mass, record temperatures at Edmonton were at least 15C colder than recent, as was Banff's record; those are both nearly 30 degrees Fahrenheit colder.

As to snowfall records in one day, 1950-20", 1916-21.5", but these pale in comparison to unrecorded snowfalls and depths in 1880 of somewhere around 4'. I read long ago, but don't recall the year, that Elliot Bay once froze over. I wouldn't be surprised if that was an Emmett Watson article.

What does appear likely is that this period (which could last to February 23rd with just a couple of warmer days forecast after Valentine's day) will be the coldest extended period in decades and has the chance, depending, to be one of the snowiest as well.
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 7:04 pm 
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Interesting compilation of Seattle unusual weather events dating back to 1850 stories.

History Link Seattle stories and weather records
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Riverside Laker
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 9:54 pm 
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SeanSullivan86 wrote:
The last time there was a single digit temp at Seatac was 7 degrees on 2/4/1989

I remember that cold snap. It seemed like a good idea to sleep in a tent in the back yard. I decided at 4am that my sleeping bag didn't quite cut it and went back into the house.
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moonspots
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PostFri Feb 08, 2019 6:15 am 
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treeswarper wrote:
I consider it normal to have sub zero weather for a few days on the east side of the state, but 1968 was memorable. 

I recall about +8F in Eugene one time, must have been about then. I was a bit tougher (but not any wiser) back then because I crawled under mom's car and drained some coolant and then added some anti-freeze to the radiator "just in case", without any measurements to backup my idea. Thinking back now, I could/should have just put it in the garage.  huh.gif

Well, for Chief Joseph's benefit, I'll relay that my phone app reports -26F this morning as I get into my first cup of coffee.... Wife said the morning weather map on the news said it's -32F. Well, one of 'em might be correct, but either way, it's quite chilly! Western border (ND/Montana) reports -36F.

And what's peculiar about all the complaining about the temps here is that it usually dips down this low for days/weeks at a time around this time of year, but hasn't done so for a few years, so we all got used to the "balmy" weather...

Ok, time for another coffee....

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"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology
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treeswarper
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PostFri Feb 08, 2019 8:15 am 
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It warmed up overnight to 28,  It was snowing, but only enough to turn things white.  I think we'll live to see another day and coffee is ready.

I do not have TV so cannot watch the Seattle Panic.  Maybe it'll be online?

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Joey
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PostFri Feb 08, 2019 8:31 am 
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treeswarper wrote:
I do not have TV so cannot watch the Seattle Panic.  Maybe it'll be online?

Yup.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/aobma6/lines_at_the_grocery_store_have_aleady_reached/
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treeswarper
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PostFri Feb 08, 2019 8:41 am 
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Joey wrote:
treeswarper wrote:
I do not have TV so cannot watch the Seattle Panic.  Maybe it'll be online?

Yup.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/aobma6/lines_at_the_grocery_store_have_aleady_reached/

Thanks.  I have popcorn ready to pop when it hits.  Your post about it being balmy the past couple years seems to fit here.  I had a clogged drain yesterday.  I called the plumber and he was booked solid for a week with frozen pipe problems.  He kind of explained how to unclog it, then I watched a video, and it took less than 5 minutes to hear the sound of drainage happening.

I do not know how this house was plumbed so I've been doing the drippy faucet thing.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Joey
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PostFri Feb 08, 2019 9:04 am 
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Another good one.

https://twitter.com/praeclarum/status/1093900332768288768
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